jdrenken Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 When Organic Forecasting Sees The Future Months In Advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Beautiful day today. 84 in March in the smokies is as good as possible Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 GFS keeps insisting winter is coming back. It's been slowly reeling in a late season miller A that brings snow to the entire area with decent accumulations to the plateau and mountains. It was at 324 a few days ago, now it's inside of 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 GFS keeps insisting winter is coming back. It's been slowly reeling in a late season miller A that brings snow to the entire area with decent accumulations to the plateau and mountains. It was at 324 a few days ago, now it's inside of 240. Hope it's sooner than later--before the trees are fully budded out. This warm spell with near 80 degrees temps has come way too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Euro and Canadian are warmer with the system, tracking farther north, which saves the Valley. Trees could take a light frost or two post-frontal, long as we avoid the hard freeze. At higher elevations trees should naturally delay timing either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 13, 2016 Author Share Posted March 13, 2016 Cold air intrusions in the medium range aside, spring has indeed sprung and will not be denied. The lack of any persistent blocking signatures at high latitude will allow the active Pacific semizonal flow to do its work. That means an amplified storm track that will progress through the lower 48 states through the end of March, with mild or warm air masses dominating the U.S. This is a relatively rare scenario when I employ the much-maligned operational GFS version as a background for the forecast description. The basic idea revolves around the polar westerlies buckling to form a full-latitude trough over the western half of the continent by March 26. Southwest flow ahead of this trough complex will likely yank much milder air from the tropical regions into the area from the High Plains to the East Coast. Conversely, a colder mPk + cP regime should occupy locations to the left of the Rocky Mountains. There looks to be excellent potential to build the snowpack in the West at the end of March. I can see a looming problem for the Great Plains, Midwest, and Old South around March 27 - 29. Since the aforementioned trough will make only minor inroads into the center of the continent (with the subtropical high quite strong in the Bermuda position), there will be plenty of time to build up the dewpoint/instability profile. Strong southwest flow to the right of the disturbance could bring in a dry tongue from Mexico. If a "bolting" progression occurs, with a deep surface low forming in the Texas Panhandle and then pushing rapidly into the Great Lakes, expect a wide area of convective vulnerability from C, E TX....C, E OK....E KS....SE NE....C, S IA....S WI....S Lower MI....OH....KY....TN....W GA....FL Panhandle....AL....MS....LA....AR....MO....IL....IN. It is "that time of year" and the risk of an excessive rainfall + severe weather event has already unfolded just a few days ago. Certainly is a time frame to watch down the road.Long range models are hinting around this time period 27-29 as Larry Cosgrove mentions in this article.Ran a overlay map using the ESR on this afternoons EPS and it shows what should be a ridge to the east of the Valley with the heights pumping up,this should be a nice warm up heading into the last week of March.This map would correlate using the ESR,using 8 days and would be the 26th Here is the BSR during this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 GFS keeps insisting winter is coming back. It's been slowly reeling in a late season miller A that brings snow to the entire area with decent accumulations to the plateau and mountains. It was at 324 a few days ago, now it's inside of 240. 12z GFS has a Miller A for late next weekend and looks pretty nice for the mtns from the Smokies to Maine. Nothing for the valleys at this point folks. Just the time of year where the mtns have to be watched for potential big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 12z UKMET and CMC have basically the same track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Just had the first real thunderstorm of the spring season. Torrential rain, lightning, wind and small hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 GFS is showing rain in a few days with temps in the mid to upper 30s but with thicknesses at 528-534 and 850s well below freezing. It's the same thing it showed a few weeks ago but the precip fell across the area as snow. So if the system plays out as modeled, look for a period of snow showery weather Saturday into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 GFS is showing rain in a few days with temps in the mid to upper 30s but with thicknesses at 528-534 and 850s well below freezing. It's the same thing it showed a few weeks ago but the precip fell across the area as snow. So if the system plays out as modeled, look for a period of snow showery weather Saturday into Sunday. Pretty typical for March here. Just hoping all the trees don't leaf out before then, and, subsequently, get nipped by frost. Today's near 80, and the next few days of decent warmth, will begin to fool the trees into acting like it's mid April, not mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15, 2016 Author Share Posted March 15, 2016 Could possibly break our record high for today of 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 12z CMC is interesting. GFS is well east, but room to come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15, 2016 Author Share Posted March 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15, 2016 Author Share Posted March 15, 2016 Could possibly break our record high for today of 82 1 P:M sitting @ 81,southerly winds and no clouds, the record should go down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Record highs today and potentially snow flakes flying in the northern foothills next weekend. Whew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15, 2016 Author Share Posted March 15, 2016 Record highs today and potentially snow flakes flying in the northern foothills next weekend. Whew! Hit 87 today.The warmest winter time temp for the day ever recorded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Hit 87 today.The warmest winter time temp for the day ever recordedInteresting...I use Dec to Feb as winter and not the equinoxes. Either way, man I hate early season wamth which is actually "hot." LOL. Setting up for a heckuva severe season w the back and forth which is on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Hit 87 today.The warmest winter time temp for the day ever recorded 85 here in Lithia springs. It's definitely heating up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 12z GGem was very interesting as Carver pointed out, dumped 2-4+ inches across the area in East Tennessee/SWVa/SEKY. GFS keeps showing rain on the model output but with snow upper profiles. Well below freezing 850s and the 540 well south with some areas having the 534 south of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 12z GGem was very interesting as Carver pointed out, dumped 2-4+ inches across the area in East Tennessee/SWVa/SEKY. GFS keeps showing rain on the model output but with snow upper profiles. Well below freezing 850s and the 540 well south with some areas having the 534 south of them. It seems to me that during the last upgrade to the Gfs they implemented the snow versus rain depiction based on it's projected 0c 2m temperature projection. Those cheesy snow versus rain radar maps based on that irk me. It can be pouring the snow and radar is showing it as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 12z EPS found the storm again. Shenandoah to Maine. Big Nor'easter. Would not rule out big snows in the mtns and flakes flying in the Valley w that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 17, 2016 Author Share Posted March 17, 2016 https://twitter.com/hepomodeler/status/710262288658206720 (Courtesy of Josh Herman) System moves into this area tomorrow in East Asia.The overlay map fits well to the Euro what's going on in East Asia.We should see the heights building up into the Valley next week with a front maybe stalling out or slowing down.Dynamics could possibly all be there as well as some good rains next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 We, we knew it would happen. Frost/freezing temps look like a good possibility over the coming weekend. THE PRIMARY CONCERN HOWEVER...WILL BE THE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTOTHE REGION. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAYNIGHT... WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FROST IN SOME AREAS. EVEN COLDERTEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED A WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE OVERALL OF THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. THOSEWITH LOCAL AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE TEMPERATUREFORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT A WARMING ANDDRYING TREND WILL QUICKLY OCCUR ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THEMID TO UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH AMPLESUNSHINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 17, 2016 Author Share Posted March 17, 2016 The link up above didnt work https://twitter.com/hepomodeler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 We, we knew it would happen. Frost/freezing temps look like a good possibility over the coming weekend. Down to 33 here this morning. Extremely low humidity with resulting low dewpoints have really produced large diurnal/ nocturnal temperature swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Spring in the Valley is about to go full Nino w some wild swings and strong late season cold embedded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Severe Weather To Open April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 19, 2016 Author Share Posted March 19, 2016 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 VALID 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE/LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY SPANNING A CORRIDOR FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY AND TN VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKENDS FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...MEANINGFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE ABSENT ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AIRMASS MODIFICATION/NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL GRADUALLY OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH. REGARDING THIS TROUGH...TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF /FASTER AND STRONGER/ AND GFS...WHILE NEARLY HALF OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST A CONSIDERABLY SLOWER SOLUTION AS COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN. THAT SAID...AT LEAST SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS DAY 5 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY. A MORE PROBABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL...CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK...MAY EXIST ON 6-7 THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITHIN A CORRIDOR POTENTIALLY INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY AND TN VALLEY. AS GUIDANCE-RELATED TIMING/SPATIAL VARIABILITY DETAILS ARE RESOLVED...SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS WILL REEVALUATE POTENTIAL INTRODUCTIONS OF AT LEAST 15-PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2016 VALID 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE/LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY SPANNING A CORRIDOR FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY AND TN VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKENDS FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...MEANINGFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE ABSENT ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AIRMASS MODIFICATION/NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL GRADUALLY OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH. REGARDING THIS TROUGH...TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF /FASTER AND STRONGER/ AND GFS...WHILE NEARLY HALF OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST A CONSIDERABLY SLOWER SOLUTION AS COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN. THAT SAID...AT LEAST SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS DAY 5 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY. A MORE PROBABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL...CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK...MAY EXIST ON 6-7 THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITHIN A CORRIDOR POTENTIALLY INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY AND TN VALLEY. AS GUIDANCE-RELATED TIMING/SPATIAL VARIABILITY DETAILS ARE RESOLVED...SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS WILL REEVALUATE POTENTIAL INTRODUCTIONS OF AT LEAST 15-PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. I used to think that when the SPC mentioned the TN Valley, they were talking about the eastern valley. However, I've discovered that it doesn't usually include us in East TN. I believe they refer to us as the Southern Appalachians. Anyways, it looks like it's going to be really cold on Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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