nrgjeff Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Wow that is close! Did that start your interest in weather? On 3/2/2016 at 3:41 PM, WarEagle said: Grew up near Midfield close to Bessemer when i was young.When i was young mom took me and my older brother to the Southern league All-Star's baseball game at Rickwood Field.About the 6th inng it started to thunder,back then they kept playing.Then shortly after it started to hail and rain and everyone ran for cover,then the power shut down and the game was called,on the way home we found out a tornado hit about a half mile from the ball park. Meanwhile middle of next week may unidirectional heavy rain. Analog backs up GFS Op with another chance right behind it. After this week mountain snow looks like the severe buffet line starts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 On 3/2/2016 at 5:32 PM, nrgjeff said: Wow that is close! Did that start your interest in weather? Meanwhile middle of next week may unidirectional heavy rain. Analog backs up GFS Op with another chance right behind it. After this week mountain snow looks like the severe buffet line starts... What do you mean by Severe buffet line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 On 3/2/2016 at 5:32 PM, nrgjeff said: Wow that is close! Did that start your interest in weather? Meanwhile middle of next week may unidirectional heavy rain. Analog backs up GFS Op with another chance right behind it. After this week mountain snow looks like the severe buffet line starts... It was when we moved from Jacksonville to Lawrenceburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 Euro has 2" of snow in Mid Tn but yet the 925's are +4C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 On 3/2/2016 at 5:37 PM, Runman292 said: What do you mean by Severe buffet line? Hoping for a few chances at severe. Buffet line refers to the systems lined up one right after another. Of course it could change and/or they could all be slop. Still confidence is good on the trough West ridge East pattern next week and maybe then some, which is favorable for severe this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 On 3/2/2016 at 7:55 PM, nrgjeff said: Hoping for a few chances at severe. Buffet line refers to the systems lined up one right after another. Of course it could change and/or they could all be slop. Still confidence is good on the trough West ridge East pattern next week and maybe then some, which is favorable for severe this time of year. Jeff, do you work as a meteorologist at a NWS office, local news station, airport, or something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 On 3/2/2016 at 7:49 PM, WarEagle said: Euro has 2" of snow in Mid Tn but yet the 925's are +4C funny pic of pulling your hair Google Search.png Check out the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 On 3/2/2016 at 8:32 PM, Runman292 said: Jeff, do you work as a meteorologist at a NWS office, local news station, airport, or something else?. I appreciate your natural curiosity but let's stick to the topic please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 More and more indications are that this month is going to be wild. #organicforecasting and #bsr has been on point to the threat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 0z NAM on Tropical Tidbits. March storms can be fickle for better or worse. Time of day will be key...one last NAM pic for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Definitely intriguing as the storm path tracks more and more south. I'd feel great above 2500 feet on the Plateau and in the mountains. With good potential for some heavy, wet snow breaking lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I'll take the dusting on the GFS, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2016 Author Share Posted March 3, 2016 On 3/3/2016 at 2:19 AM, jdrenken said: More and more indications are that this month is going to be wild. #organicforecasting and #bsr has been on point to the threat! The esembles have been showing the heights rising in East Asia the next couple days with a system behind it,so we should be looking at the 18-19th time frame in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 The 6z NAM took all of our precip away staying south of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 On 3/3/2016 at 8:24 AM, 1234snow said: The 6z NAM took all of our precip away staying south of the area.It is a fast mover for sure. Radar is pretty healthy, but the time of day is not optimal. At one time, it was supposed to arrive at night. Still looks like a nice event in the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Looks like major flooding will be possible west of I-65 next week. Some scary looking precip totals in the Memphis area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 On 3/3/2016 at 1:13 PM, dwagner88 said: Looks like major flooding will be possible west of I-65 next week. Some scary looking precip totals in the Memphis area. Indeed, WxSouth had a big write-up on it. Not good. Nino finally acting like a Nino as it diminishes. Snow in the Sierra Nevadas and flooding rains in the SE. Might be a very big story as we head forward. Anybody have precip totals for the next 16 days? On the move at the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 On 3/3/2016 at 1:13 PM, dwagner88 said: Looks like major flooding will be possible west of I-65 next week. Some scary looking precip totals in the Memphis area. 6z GFS...Might need a thread if the threat continues to show itself on future model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Apparently all of this rain did in fact fall as snow above 1500'. The area mountains saw light accumulations on elevated surfaces. Just rain with a few wet flakes mixed in to start in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 On 3/3/2016 at 8:36 PM, dwagner88 said: Apparently all of this rain did in fact fall as snow above 1500'. The area mountains saw light accumulations on elevated surfaces. Just rain with a few wet flakes mixed in to start in the valley. Was dry slotted here or it would have been mostly snow...crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Mostly just a minor sleet event at my place. It started around 4 p.m. At times, the sleet fell at a good pace. And then it stopped. And then it started again. Then it stopped. Get the picture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 4, 2016 Author Share Posted March 4, 2016 On 3/3/2016 at 3:12 PM, Carvers Gap said: 6z GFS...Might need a thread if the threat continues to show itself on future model runs. image.jpg Active pattern next week.Euro is showing multiple severe threats into next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Food for thought...this forecast was made on February 15th for next week's precipitable water amounts via the #rrwt, or Recurring Rossby Wave Train, found here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 5, 2016 Author Share Posted March 5, 2016 On 3/5/2016 at 2:00 AM, jdrenken said: Food for thought...this forecast was made on February 15th for next week's precipitable water amounts via the #rrwt, or Recurring Rossby Wave Train, found here.. Pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 5, 2016 Author Share Posted March 5, 2016 Past the 75% PCTL,should see this possibly spike up next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 6, 2016 Author Share Posted March 6, 2016 PV is finally going to split.Wouldn't rule out one last snow in the mountains.Rest of us,winter is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 6, 2016 Author Share Posted March 6, 2016 By the looks the GEFS has been showing this but backing off but we should go into a more zonal period coming up around the 21-22nd,looks like a drying out period.EPS is showing this also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 7, 2016 Author Share Posted March 7, 2016 GEFS keeps backing off any drying in the long range.Still seeing a system around the 18th give or take,If the GOM can recover we could possibly see a better severe chance and if it does recover we could possibly see more flood issues in the western Valley,though this system should progress faster than we are seeing next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 8, 2016 Author Share Posted March 8, 2016 System in East Asia today.GFS and euro are already hinting at another boundary creeping through or stalling out again in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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