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Winter Wx threat March 1-2 (best chance north)

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

I don't understand what's going on very well... it seems like the models have shifted West and warmer, but at the same time, Gyx has increased the snow for our area from 1-3 to 2-4 and lowered the high from 39 to 36... Also, what's  driving that "blob" of higher snowfall around the Mt Washington Valley in the RGEM? Just curious (and weenie)

 

Elevation around Mt Washington, And i wouldn't take and run with what they have forecast right now, Wait until the PM AFD as they will have had a chance to look at 12z data

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backedgeapproaching

backedgeapproaching

Posted
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Don't think much model guidance supports 4-6" even in the higher elevations in SVT..but that is what ALY is going with as of now.

 

 

THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT WILL BE IN PLAY THAT STILL RESULT IN
A HIGH ENOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT SOME WINTRY MIX AND LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES. THE FIRST IS THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW...WILL INDUCE A PERSISTENT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY
AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW ENOUGH COLD AIR TO FILTER SOUTH
TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 90 FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THIS COLD AIR BEING IN PLACE INITIALLY...WET-BULB EFFECTS WILL
LIKELY AID IN A SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL AT THE
PRECIPITATION ONSET ESPECIALLY IF THE PRECIPITATION IS MODERATE TO
HEAVY...WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING EFFECTS FURTHER ADDING INFLUENCE

 

12798818_1192783847400165_64721995605059

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

Plan on living off the land if you do...............lol

 

Or learning to speak Quebecois-French.  ;)

 

One more in the string of "wash-away" snowfalls.  I've never seen even close to this many such events before in a Maine winter - more like a bad (for snow-lovers) winter in NNJ.  This looks to be rain/mostly-rain event #11 for met winter, 5 in Dec, just one in Jan, 4 in Feb.

 

However, it appears the mushers have caught a break in N.Maine for the March 4-7 races.  St. John Valley progged for 8-14" followed by some January-cold nights, ideal conditions for the 250-miler that serves as one of the Iditirod qualifiers.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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Or learning to speak Quebecois-French. ;)

One more in the string of "wash-away" snowfalls. I've never seen even close to this many such events before in a Maine winter - more like a bad (for snow-lovers) winter in NNJ. This looks to be rain/mostly-rain event #11 for met winter, 5 in Dec, just one in Jan, 4 in Feb.

However, it appears the mushers have caught a break in N.Maine for the March 4-7 races. St. John Valley progged for 8-14" followed by some January-cold nights, ideal conditions for the 250-miler that serves as one of the Iditirod qualifiers.

Yes, It looks like it's going to work out for them up there, The crown looks to cash in

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

12z RGEM shifted a tic or two west for VT but still looks about the same for Northern Maine, That area in the St Johns Valley looks to be in the jackpot

SN_000-048_0012.gif

Still can't believe how epic it's been in Quebec, while 100 miles south it's been anything but.

I did the mileage last night...150 miles north of me (which is about the straight line distance of ORH to Stowe) they have three to four feet on the ground.

Quite the gradient. The tenor of the NNE thread would be quite different if this whole pattern was only 150 miles south, though SNE would be about where we are on the gradient side now.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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Still can't believe how epic it's been in Quebec, while 100 miles south it's been anything but.

I did the mileage last night...150 miles north of me (which is about the straight line distance of ORH to Stowe) they have three to four feet on the ground.

Quite the gradient. The tenor of the NNE thread would be quite different if this whole pattern was only 150 miles south, though SNE would be about where we are on the gradient side now.

Yeah, We all would be singing a different tune if that was south, We just ended up on the wrong side of the gradient and the areas near the Canadiens border has cashed up here

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Lava Rock

Lava Rock

Posted
Posted

Or learning to speak Quebecois-French.  ;)

 

One more in the string of "wash-away" snowfalls.  I've never seen even close to this many such events before in a Maine winter - more like a bad (for snow-lovers) winter in NNJ.  This looks to be rain/mostly-rain event #11 for met winter, 5 in Dec, just one in Jan, 4 in Feb.

 

However, it appears the mushers have caught a break in N.Maine for the March 4-7 races.  St. John Valley progged for 8-14" followed by some January-cold nights, ideal conditions for the 250-miler that serves as one of the Iditirod qualifiers.

Do the dogs use the snowmobile trails?

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

The Euro also is total crap with tonight's system and even worse than the GFS in terms of track.

Boy,  we just can't win this year.   Interesting to see on last nights WMUR weather broadcast that the last 3 months  (Meteorological Winter) was the warmest by a whole degree in record keeping for Concord NH.  Pretty hard to do that for a 140 year period.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Boy,  we just can't win this year.   Interesting to see on last nights WMUR weather broadcast that the last 3 months  (Meteorological Winter) was the warmest by a whole degree in record keeping for Concord NH.  Pretty hard to do that for a 140 year period.

 

That's pretty impressive if CON has a 140 year record period and beat the former warmest DJF by a full degree.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Speaking of can't win...  this morning it was -7F on the mountain and expected to be 34F and raining tomorrow morning.  That's now the 4th or 5th time in the last couple months that the mountain went from 0F or sub-zero to rain within like 36 hours.  And then it'll be back below zero on Thursday.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Sorry NNE, I tried to change it up and start a thread to bring good juju...but I couldn't overcome the evil force that continues to pull out all the possible combinations to bring the least snowiest result for NNE. (minus northern Maine)

 

Funny how we were joking with PF about how ridiculous December 1982 was at the picnic tables....not only did this year have a similar beginning to winter as '82-'83 did, but then it decided to have a horrific late winter too unlike '82-'83 which had a strong finish.

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dendrite

dendrite

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Sorry NNE, I tried to change it up and start a thread to bring good juju...but I couldn't overcome the evil force that continues to pull out all the possible combinations to bring the least snowiest result for NNE. (minus northern Maine)

 

Funny how we were joking with PF about how ridiculous December 1982 was at the picnic tables....not only did this year have a similar beginning to winter as '82-'83 did, but then it decided to have a horrific late winter too unlike '82-'83 which had a strong finish.

The coastals will arrive in late April and May. Cold rain for everyone.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Sorry NNE, I tried to change it up and start a thread to bring good juju...but I couldn't overcome the evil force that continues to pull out all the possible combinations to bring the least snowiest result for NNE. (minus northern Maine)

Funny how we were joking with PF about how ridiculous December 1982 was at the picnic tables....not only did this year have a similar beginning to winter as '82-'83 did, but then it decided to have a horrific late winter too unlike '82-'83 which had a strong finish.

Haha yup I always chuckle when I think about those convos with you and Ginxy in the fall about 82-83. It was a joke at that point and I remember personally being really surprised to find 0" depth on 12/31/82. Like I wouldn't have thought that possible, even a crusty 6" or something but not zero. Well, this year we set the Christmas record with 0" at the stake, though the 5-6" of snow/sleet on the 28th allowed the 12/31/82 record to stand as the latest 0" reading. Ironically, that SN/IP event is my largest "winter storm" of the season in my backyard with an advisory event.

This winter will definitely lead me to rethink whats possible. And even a normal or sub-par winter will feel really snowy.

Also makes me think of those seasonal snow forecasts that were showing 50% of normal in NNE, and myself, Tamarack, JSpin all jumped in saying that's not possible as the last 30 years of records (or whatever) have a range of like 70-130% of normal, so forecasting 50% or 200% is useless. Well this winter shows why you never say never in forecasting haha.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Sorry NNE, I tried to change it up and start a thread to bring good juju...but I couldn't overcome the evil force that continues to pull out all the possible combinations to bring the least snowiest result for NNE. (minus northern Maine)

 

Funny how we were joking with PF about how ridiculous December 1982 was at the picnic tables....not only did this year have a similar beginning to winter as '82-'83 did, but then it decided to have a horrific late winter too unlike '82-'83 which had a strong finish.

 

You did the best you could for what little we had to work with, Can't believe all the different ways it played out not to snow for many up here

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

As my buddy and I were leaning towards Caribou this wknd, he's thinking Milli. 3" ain't gonna cut it there, although I heard Jo Mary was decent. Can't stand the yahoos over in Jackman, so no go there.

Yeah, Not Mili, Going to be close for CAR, They are on the fence, If you could get over to Ashland or portage it would be better
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