CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The gfs had been completely inconsistent. It's one thing to be consistent but wrong, it's another to be wrong and also all over the place. Frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Well that was fun for a little while yesterday when it looked favorable haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Been a lot of fun all winter in the day 7-10 period.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Looking forward to more April-esque weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The gfs had been completely inconsistent. It's one thing to be consistent but wrong, it's another to be wrong and also all over the place. Frustrating.Helps with the decision to toss it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Looking forward to more April-esque weather Already here. 50f, chickadees are chirping, windows open, raking the lawn and about ready to wash car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Already here. 50f, chickadees are chirping, windows open, raking the lawn and about ready to wash car. Clear the ice out of the mountains and I'll be good to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2016 Author Share Posted February 29, 2016 00z euro went east a little and makes things pretty interesting for PF land. Could be some pretty heavy snow as that low deepens before exiting NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Should work out fine for the weekend dogsled races in Fort Kent/NW woods. Looks like another 2-3 inches of "wash-away" snow for the foothills, stuff that lasts for just a few hours after the changeover to RA. Would make four of those in succession, but this time followed by a whiff, for variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 We will taint for sure but this is about as good as we will get this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 We will taint for sure but this is about as good as we will get this winter. You could do best of anyone in BTV. These events tend to favor the CPV as the cold easily sneaks down the valley, locking in frozen precip. RGEM shows that quite well with 22F at BTV while it's well in the 30s and raining in the mountains. Very close to a warning event in BTV proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2016 Author Share Posted February 29, 2016 Euro looks pretty cold for N VT...BTV gets a lot of snow I think on that run...def some pellets I would think, but not as much as other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Probably a chance for some icing here Wed morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Euro looks pretty cold for N VT...BTV gets a lot of snow I think on that run...def some pellets I would think, but not as much as other guidance. The 6-hour snap shots stay sub-freezing at BTV and MVL through the column, but definitely could sneak above at some layer in-between the 6-hr positions. The low tracks in SVT, vs NVT on the GGEM and the GFS is inbetween. That's real close to a 6-8" snowfall for northern VT. We pray the Euro is right. Even 4" with some sleet would be a good event this winter haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 You could do best of anyone in BTV. These events tend to favor the CPV as the cold easily sneaks down the valley, locking in frozen precip. RGEM shows that quite well with 22F at BTV while it's well in the 30s and raining in the mountains. image.png Very close to a warning event in BTV proper. image.png Actually you are correct. That is what did it during the ice event around Christmas 2 years ago or so. We stayed in the teens to low 20's and the top of Mansfield torched during that (obviously somewhat of a different scenario but the cold locked in here then for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 How's the North Conway Attitash area looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Actually you are correct. That is what did it during the ice event around Christmas 2 years ago or so. We stayed in the teens to low 20's and the top of Mansfield torched during that (obviously somewhat of a different scenario but the cold locked in here then for the duration.There are a lot of events like that. I remember a big one in March of like 2008 or 2009 where it rained in the mountains but we lost power in BTV proper from 0.75" ice and then IP to snow. It was like 19F with flags stiff pointing south on 20mph northerly flow in the valley, while aloft it was cranking from the southwest and warmed up the mountains and points east.MSS in the St Lawrance Valley is prone to the same phenomena. Low level northerly flow will suck cold south very quickly as long as the SFC low stays south and east of BTV proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Actually you are correct. That is what did it during the ice event around Christmas 2 years ago or so. We stayed in the teens to low 20's and the top of Mansfield torched during that (obviously somewhat of a different scenario but the cold locked in here then for the duration. Quarry cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 After comparing the 12z GFS and the 12z ECM, they are both almost identical in track so it looks like the goal-posts are quite narrow now. GFS/ECM both have the low tracking through southern VT to central Maine. GFS is 989mb over Mount Snow and ECM is 994mb over DDH at hour 48. Both are within miles of each other so I'm willing to toss the GGEM solution which is a 990mb over BTV at the same time. The GFS is slightly stronger at all levels, allowing for slightly more warming aloft ahead of the low, so while they have the same track, the strength differences allow the EURO to probably stay frozen (snow/sleet) up here, the GFS would argue for FZRN or RN for a time, going back to snow on the backside. Either way, I do like the potential for a nice flash freeze and period of moderate snowfall across most of central/northern VT. It should at least help us end with a net gain and white ground, even if its only a 2-3" backside snowfall. Looks like anyone that stays all snow has a good shot at a 6+ snowfall, with 3-6" for areas that mix with IP/ZR, and then 1-3" for anyone that is relying solely on the backside snow for any accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Mtns and Northern Maine are going to get a good pasting on this one, 6-12" not out of the question and could be some higher amounts as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Remember the surgical precision to avoid snow in the coastal events in the interior... now we have surgical precision to keep us out of the good snows again if this pans out. Pretty impressive the number of close misses we've had to decent events. Epic second half of the season continues for southern Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 Euro caved to the intimidating duo of the NAM/GGEM in an embarrassing defeat. I guess just ride whatever model gives the least snow up in NNE this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Man. You can't make this stuff up. FNT hit hard again too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Sipprell going nuts on big winds tomorrow in AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Euro caved to the intimidating duo of the NAM/GGEM in an embarrassing defeat. I guess just ride whatever model gives the least snow up in NNE this winter. Yep. Back to the quarry. Every event has found a way to fail here. Why should this be any different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 What a disastah. Endless futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Late game west shifts when you don't need one, Story of this winter, Its whiffs and cutters, 06z RGEM still looks good for Northern Maine though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Looks like I should move to Estcourt Station if I want snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Looks like I should move to Estcourt Station if I want snow Plan on living off the land if you do...............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I don't understand what's going on very well... it seems like the models have shifted West and warmer, but at the same time, Gyx has increased the snow for our area from 1-3 to 2-4 and lowered the high from 39 to 36... Also, what's driving that "blob" of higher snowfall around the Mt Washington Valley in the RGEM? Just curious (and weenie) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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