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Winter Wx threat March 1-2 (best chance north)

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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We are now inside of 4 days on this threat, so I figured it could use its own thread.

 

The best locations for this in terms of winter wx is NNE...particularly N VT through N NH and NW ME. But the ski areas of VT and N NH could use some good juju. Historically low totals to this point have been the rule.

 

 

There is going to be a fairly decent shortwave ejecting out of the Rockies on Feb 29th while a spoke of the PV runs out ahead of it to keep the flow flat enough for some winter precip. In previous model runs, this spoke was phasing with the Rockies shortwave and causing the storm to slice up through BUF and into the St. Lawrence valley.

 

I've highlighted the two main players in question....circled in green is the main Rockies energy and circled in purple is the PV spoke:

 

 

Feb27_18z_NAM_54h.png

 

 

 

 

 

There is still some uncertainty in how these features behave. Southern New England could get in more on winter precip if the Rockies shortwave stays further south and lags the PV energy a bit more.

 

 

But right now, the favored area would be NNE...esp in the N half of VT over to N NH. Some of the deeper runs have developed a coastal wave along the baroclinic zone further south like the UKMET which would likely flip some of SNE over to snow. Other ensemble members on both GEFS and Euro ensembles have the whole wave flatter and more significant snow further south as well.

 

So we'll see how it evolves over the next 24 hours...we should start narrowing the goal posts failr quickly in that time.

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
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18z GFS basically a FROPA with a weak wave along it. That looks like the best way this could fall apart. Would still bring light overrunning snows possibly in the 3-6" range in that solution.

I'll still take the 12z EURO for 500 Alex.

Looks more like an unstable wave to me with initial mix/rain start for ENY and NE changing over to some snow late Tuesday into Wed AM. Areas WNW thru North and NE of Albany wet snow and/or some sleet then all snow with best chances for a moderate (3- 6") snow fall perhaps marginally heavy snow (6-9") if it falls as all snow. Unlike past storms the cold air is moving over the NEUS as the low is too; previous events had the high in the wrong place so to speak plus the lows tracked west of the area.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Interesting GFS run...two waves form along the front...the first one gives a nice event for NNE, and then as the front is trying to move offshore, a wave forms along it and gives SNE a quick shot of heavy snow after brief rain.

 

Given the uncertainty mentioned in the OP, it is not surprising to see some of these runs waffling on how to develop this system.

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dendrite

dendrite

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Ekster had an interesting discussion with some of our neighbors internally last night. I think it was ALY that compared it to the Ryder Cup. The Euros usually win, but every so often the Americans score the surprise upset.

Midlo had a funny photoshopped beauty pageant pic a decade ago of the various models. I wish I could find it somewhere.
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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GFS finally caved.

 

Well it looks a lot different than the Euro now. It has trended well past it.

 

The model has taken wild swings...it's just a very inconsistent piece of guidance.

 

 

 

 

I'm hoping this can deliver for NNE though....this has always been an uphill battle for SNE. The longwave trough is more favorable for Mar 4th onward.

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MJO812

MJO812

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Well it looks a lot different than the Euro now. It has trended well past it.

 

The model has taken wild swings...it's just a very inconsistent piece of guidance.

 

 

 

 

I'm hoping this can deliver for NNE though....this has always been an uphill battle for SNE. The longwave trough is more favorable for Mar 4th onward.

Yep. NNE has a shot before switching over.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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yes the gfs does capitulate to a stronger concept with this mar 2 system ...but as Will and others may or may not have mentioned, that basic structural canvas is not really good for the ma/sne regions.  that synopsis would tend to squeeze the embedded impulse(s) west.  

 

the problem is ... shortly after ejecting out of the rockies region, the ridge in the west stays anchored west of 100 longitude. any attempt to take a system (then) under our latitude is quite difficult to happen outside of some kind of rare anomaly ... because the L/W wave length would be too long.  

 

btw, about 5 or so days ago, this system was huge in the gfs run(s).  i noticed two key morphologies in the gfs handling since then: ...at that time, the ridge in the west was more progressive, redistributing closer to the dakotas, post the trough ejection out of the west.  that was a better fit for a wintry impactor here.  two, the heights over all were a little more relaxed back whence; now we are back with deep SPV depression in se canada, with heights over 580 in Florida...that's 110 dm of height gradient which is just too much. the screaming high winds that have to circulate through that gradient acts as an overall detriment for cyclogen and cyclogen feedback physics.    

 

plus, having this then come into mid range with a ridge correcting back west instead of progressing east ( toward the season persistence mind you )  is ...well, understandable and probably disappointing to some.  it also makes me wonder what kind of least excuse imaginable corrections toward demolishing chances further down the road, too.  heh. 

 

i'm pretty rested in a simplistic notion on things ... after having been beaten over the head with it all season long:

 

(too much gradient)+(ridge tauntingly too far west for ideal +PNAP)/ 2  = disheartening winter affairs.  

 

Sorry. it's just been those two major scale components causing this train-wreck winter we've had.  in fact, correct either of those two and we proooobably would have been somewhat more winter productive (as far as snow goes...).  

 

that said ... either or both could very well ease off the pump rate - they just haven't yet save for once or twice when the vagaries of atmospheric dice roll results were rollin' us snake-eyes anyway.  altho - we must be fair and recall that we had an inside 24 hour rare model correction and verified a decent moderate event in all this...

 

still, despite the mocking sort of smoldering implication of this post ... we really wouldn't even need a blockbuster storm to get Logan within objective shouting distance of normal.  as a side note ... i think some recent winters might just have aroused a meme of having expectations be a liiiitle too high?  possible..  'course, i've often lamented in the passed how useless Logan is for common experience climo - 

 

oy vay

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eduggs

eduggs

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It was a GFS fantasy. Euro at least gives NNE some front end love. Maybe even far nrn ORH county too.

CMC, UK, and GFS had more wintry runs than not for the past few days for CNE and WNE.  Even the EC had a few wintry runs.  The ensemble consensus has also been wintry for days.  I would not say it was a fantasy for NEPA through ENY to CVT.  Maybe a fantasy in SE Mass.

 

Inland locations that haven't seen heavy snow for a few years are looking for storms that track near the coast or just inland.  We're not looking for offshore coastal storms.  That's why it's disappointing to see a storm that could finally track through LI end up in Rochester... again.  There's nothing about the Wed. event that telegraphs that it has to cut west.  These are almost always thread the needle.  Usually you get one to break your way every now and then.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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CMC, UK, and GFS had more wintry runs than not for the past few days for CNE and WNE. Even the EC had a few wintry runs. The ensemble consensus has also been wintry for days. I would not say it was a fantasy for NEPA through ENY to CVT. Maybe a fantasy in SE Mass.

Inland locations that haven't seen heavy snow for a few years are looking for storms that track near the coast or just inland. We're not looking for offshore coastal storms. That's why it's disappointing to see a storm that could finally track through LI end up in Rochester... again. There's nothing about the Wed. event that telegraphs that it has to cut west. These are almost always thread the needle. Usually you get one to break your way every now and then.

I'm talking about the gfs and its fantasy dual low. The gfs has been all over the place. The pattern sucks for snow in SNE. I don't care what the solutions show. It's just not the setup for it.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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interesting ... ncep seems to echo many of our own sentiments about the mid and early extended range.  

 

they remarked, also, that the gefs and gfs have recently demonstrated the worst continuity of all majors, and for that they cautiously side with the euro cluster (seems they do most of the time anyway, but the former was the reasoning they gave) which has shown more persistent indication for some sort of ec activity.   they leave the option on the table for significant snow for the ov/ma and ne regions next friday and saturday. 

 

just thought i'd paraphrase their contribution to this puzzle - 

 

still, i think the wave spacing between the now more amped mid week thing perhaps gobbling up baroclinicity and taking it away would have to be factorable in what happens a mere two days later.  hm

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