UMB WX Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 euro doesn't seem to make big jumps in 12 hrs so it should be a little more telling today if the earlier in models today are on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Well this just got interesting for me now. GFS moves south and 12z Ukie does as well. Watch this one hit us just for the fact that all us OH guys have told winter to go screw itself lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 12z GEFs mean also looks kind of squashed. Definitely a trend visible here with whatever data the 12z suite ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Hopefully not a trend that will continue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 You can see the differences in the Hudson Bay Low. That's what is messing with the models/system evolution. Then here is the EURO for reference at that time. It's able to close off and be a separate entity in the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I wonder if the latest model developments is the result of sparse sampling ingestion over the Pacific. Should be interesting to see what today's Euro shows. Either a poor sampling issue or the start of a trend. A bit concerning to see at this point as we are not really far from this system hitting the west coast but better upper air sampling won't occur until the 00z/12z Monday runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 The GFS is the only model that is missing the weak system that comes between Sunday and this storm, that weak system sets down the cold front for this system to ride. The 18z had that system and this system was in turn south. That is the key piece to this puzzle. Wanted to bring this point back up because the 12z GFS had said weak system which is why this storm ends up farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 EURO looks like it'll buck the trend. 998 over SE KS at 96. GFS is down by the OK/TX border for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 EURO looks like it'll buck the trend. 998 over SE KS at 96. GFS is down by the OK/TX border for comparison. Indeed...a sigh of relief for now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 EURO takes the first wave across Milwaukee north side. A lot like last night. Haha, EURO is holding its ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 EURO bombs out in central IN big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Just some slight differences, that's all... But with that said, follow the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 EURO bombs out in central IN big time. Probably some decent precip into Central and Northern IL on the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Huge run for Geos on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Heck of a pressure gradient there on the north/western flank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Interesting that the UKIE bailed on northerly track with the 12z run. It and the EURO and made a pretty tight tag-team duo the last couple of storms. First divergence among them (in the medium range) I've seen in about 3-4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Low then shoves off to Buffalo. 850 mb temps crash in NE IL, SE WI, behind the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 So we are GFS/GGEM/UK vs Euro at this stage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Interesting that the UKIE bailed on northerly track with the 12z run. It and the EURO and made a pretty tight tag-team duo the last couple of storms. First divergence among them (in the medium range) I've seen in about 3-4 weeks. With all the models jumping at once, I would be leery as I am sure you are. Sometimes that happens when bad or missing data is ingested. We'll know if it for real or not with the 18z/00z suite, if we see trends back to a stronger system then we can discount the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 So we are GFS/GGEM/UK vs Euro at this stage? UK MET is with the EURO I heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 So we are GFS/GGEM/UK vs Euro at this stage? GEM is further north with the wave but it's weak like the GFS and UKIE. More like a wavy fropa like someone's already mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 How does wrap around look for Ohio this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 UK MET is with the EURO I heard. Nope. More like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 About half of the GFS Ensembles are a good hit/amped storm, the other half are pretty squashed, so patience is the order of the day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 ecmwf_tsnow_greatlakes_22.png LOL MI thumb can't lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Huge run for Geos on the Euro. And you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Money run for Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 How does wrap around look for Ohio this run? same old car topper event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Well, if the models compromise like they did with the last storm, I'll be a happy camper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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