IllinoisWedges Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NOGAPS_0z/nogapsloop.html I just realized the model isn't actually called "LOLGaps"... LOL. TY, though. Realized it was the NAVGEM when I saw that low coming out of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 It's a completely different scenario^ Phases with the wave rotating around the main PV and barely saves itself and turns into a decent surface low as it becomes negatively tilted crossing the Mississippi River. I think that's the only scenario that NW OH/SEMI will see good snow. Like the NAVGEM or JMA. But as of right now there isn't a big model out there that supports it. The 6Z GFS was actually a step toward that. But this is all to my untrained eye and I could be very wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I just realized the model isn't actually called "LOLGaps"... LOL. TY, though. Realized it was the NAVGEM when I saw that low coming out of the SE. It's official name was the NOGAPS. It's now been reincarnated as the NAVGEM (which ohioccat598 posted earlier), but it originally earned its nickname of "LOLgaps" because it's a pretty awful model. Still, every now and then, it's fun to look at purely for eye candy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 GEFS further SE unsurprisingly. Some jacked members in there for the OV/Lower Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 One thing to note about this winter in general (and how it relates to this potential storm). With the few storms we've had, the 2 dominant tracks have either been from the TN Valley to the Eastern Lakes, or from TX/OK to the Western Lakes. So it wouldn't be too unreasonable to assume one of these 2 tracks will probably be the final outcome when it's all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 One thing to note about this winter in general (and how it relates to this potential storm). With the few storms we've had, the 2 dominant tracks have either been from the TN Valley to the Eastern Lakes, or from TX/OK to the Western Lakes. So it wouldn't be too unreasonable to assume one of these 2 tracks will probably be the final outcome when it's all said and done. Reality is a b**ch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Agree about the two storm tracks..And why I was confused yesterday when chicago storm caught stink for speaking out his early thought on where this one could head. Happy friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 One thing to note about this winter in general (and how it relates to this potential storm). With the few storms we've had, the 2 dominant tracks have either been from the TN Valley to the Eastern Lakes, or from TX/OK to the Western Lakes. So it wouldn't be too unreasonable to assume one of these 2 tracks will probably be the final outcome when it's all said and done. I was just thinking that. It's either Iowa....or Detroit to Lansing. Same frickin thing. I know...complaint.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 One thing about this storm compared to some of the others...higher chance of a zone of ice somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 One thing about this storm compared to some of the others...higher chance of a zone of ice somewhere. Definitely a better sleet/ice area with this storm this far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Parallel Euro deposits heaviest snows from central IL to much of OH. OH looks to get smoked pretty good on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Parallel Euro deposits heaviest snows from central IL to much of OH. OH looks to get smoked pretty good on that run. That storm on the parallel is for the next storm. The parallel run starts on 2/29 for some reason. The storm at the beginning of the run is for this thread. About the same path as the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 That storm on the parallel is for the next storm. The parallel run starts on 2/29 for some reason. The storm at the beginning of the run is for this thread. About the same path as the op run.When is that next threat? 3rd-4th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 GFS is coming south. May even lose the storm/turn it into an open wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 By 96, it looks like the storm won't be lost completely, but definitely much further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 By 96, it looks like the storm won't be lost completely, but definitely much further south. MUCH more south! bahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 good lose it today so not to wreck my weekend with storm tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 good lose it today so not to wreck my weekend with storm tracking Don't make too many plans. Could be over GRR by 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 By 96, it looks like the storm won't be lost completely, but definitely much further south.Basically a crashing frontal wave on this run with not much cold sector precip. Ugly. Certainly still time on this one, but this shows why not to get too worked up over runs showing feet of snow well over 100 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 GFS 00Z last night vs 12Z this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 GFS is crushing this thing this morning with a stronger northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Eh I would pass if I were you guys up north, who wants a stat padder to cover up how awful this winter was/is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 And I thought last night we were getting closer to a solution! Not really... lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Eh I would pass if I were you guys up north, who wants a stat padder to cover up how awful this winter was/is? I was talking to a coworker yesterday about this. He hates snow and has been rubbing the winter in my face ALL winter. I said a 30 inch snowstorm in March would still not make this winter better for me. A day awesome snowstorm does not a winter make. I'm with Josh that WINTER is when there is snow on the ground for a couple of months most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 GEM is further north, but overall looks like weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I'll get interested in this on Monday to preserve my weekend. I'm going back to this statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Well this just got interesting for me now. GFS moves south and 12z Ukie does as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 GEM is further north, but overall looks like weak sauce. Almost non existent like 12z yesterday. Glorified front. Let the EURO stay the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Don't make too many plans. Could be over GRR by 0z. Probably will be, or at least enough to the north to mess with my weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I wonder if the latest model developments is the result of sparse sampling ingestion over the Pacific. Should be interesting to see what today's Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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