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Possible winter storm March 1st-2nd


Thundersnow12

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A little off topic, but I've noticed a trend of media (and those on social media) posting operational run total accumulated snowfall maps for the hype. To me, this gives meteorology a black eye as the public perceives these as a forecast. You can't make them understand what they are really looking at.

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A little off topic, but I've noticed a trend of media (and those on social media) posting operational run total accumulated snowfall maps for the hype. To me, this gives meteorology a black eye as the public perceives these as a forecast. You can't make them understand what they are really looking at.

 

I totally agree. Especially on social media, people see this and take it as fact. Then when the actual forecast changes and the whole system swings out of their region, they become livid and bring out the pitchforks. 

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Yeah GFS all over the place. Back to 12z position almost. 

 

Significant ice and sleet in southern WI, far northern IL.

 

acckucherasnowmw.png

 

Seeing 35 mph NE winds roaring down the lake, I can't help but think the warm front will get shoved down to I-80 at least.

 

sfcmw.png

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This "farthest north" track would really be icing on the cake for those of us in the crappy zone of crappy nothing this winter (i.e. cycloneville, to Chicago, Milwaukee and, up to my area. Get missed to the southeast where they got a foot to getting missed to the northwest by just a little bit..

 

I would think with all the bouncing back and forth on the models, that a good "average path" for this system would put the crappity crap zone in the best path for snow.

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This "farthest north" track would really be icing on the cake for those of us in the crappy zone of crappy nothing this winter (i.e. cycloneville, to Chicago, Milwaukee and, up to my area. Get missed to the southeast where they got a foot to getting missed to the northwest by just a little bit..

 

I would think with all the bouncing back and forth on the models, that a good "average path" for this system would put the crappity crap zone in the best path for snow.

 

Well we are in the middle area between a miss to the south and grazing from the north.

 

I'm hoping we get the ugly runs down before Sunday. 

 

GGEM coming in more organized and snowy.

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This "farthest north" track would really be icing on the cake for those of us in the crappy zone of crappy nothing this winter (i.e. cycloneville, to Chicago, Milwaukee and, up to my area. Get missed to the southeast where they got a foot to getting missed to the northwest by just a little bit..

 

I would think with all the bouncing back and forth on the models, that a good "average path" for this system would put the crappity crap zone in the best path for snow.

 

That's the primary piece of optimism I would have on this storm, I hope this keeps its intensity and moisture either way.

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0z UKIE has a 994mb low over STL at 120 hours.

 

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

I have been cautious to use the Ukie this winter, it has been bombs away with every system this year case in point the last system it was getting it down to 980mb in KY and it never verified close to that, I think it ended up being about 987mb at those points.

 

Also it is completely blowing the high to the north, or in this case lack there of, other models have a 1030+mb high moving in sequence with this system to the north.

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I have been cautious to use the Ukie this winter, it has been bombs away with every system this year case in point the last system it was getting it down to 980mb in KY and it never verified close to that, I think it ended up being about 987mb at those points.

Also it is completely blowing the high to the north, or in this case lack there of, other models have a 1030+mb high moving in sequence with this system to the north.

Not sure if this is a documented bias but anecdotally, I've noticed the Ukie being too weak with highs before.

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The GFS is the only model that is missing the weak system that comes between Sunday and this storm, that weak system sets down the cold front for this system to ride. The 18z had that system and this system was in turn south. That is the key piece to this puzzle.

 

^This.

 

GGEM starts the low over OK Panhandle, a lot like the EURO did.

 

134_100.gif

 

Big Mediocre hit for N IL and then for S MI.

 

136_100.gif

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