cyclone77 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 New HRW-NNM really hammers the northern tier of counties of IL tomorrow night with that east/west band of snow. Deposits over an inch of qpf in a narrow zone. Geos points west towards Rockford buried. EDIT: I'm thinking Dubuque to Kenosha/Geos gets 8"+ easily at this point. The new HRW-ARW is pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I was just looking at the GGEM and it has converging winds right over me tomorrow evening at 850 mb. Will have to take a peak at those maps. Most guidance shows upper 20s here tomorrow night. 2-6" in my grid now. EURO is rolling. You're already almost 20" ahead of us at this point. Good chance you'll be over 30" ahead of us by Wed. Amazing how different the climo is up there compared to down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I would too, but given their history (the last storm notwithstanding), I wouldn't put it past them to err on the side of caution and hold off on issuing any headlines until after the 12z runs. Nah not for watches, there is enough consensus of a potential for 6"+ snowfall for SEMI to issue a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Nah not for watches, there is enough consensus of a potential for 6"+ snowfall for SEMI to issue a watch. Agree. Definitely the smart choice at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I think LOT willl post WSW for Lake and McHenry Counties by morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Low travels along I-70 across MO. Would add all the northern tier counties in a watch. Low over EVV at 42 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Low travels just north of I-70 across MO. Would add all the northern tier counties in a watch. Low over EVV at 42 hours. Probably not Cook, sadly. Its okay im on the border of Lake and Cook Co., ill dream like im in Lake County. I can already feel it. The band is going to miss us to the north and im gonna be sitting at home watching the death band drop loads of snow on you :'( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 EURO low track is very similar to last night's 0z run. Hooks up SE of Erie. - more like Pittsburgh this time. Doesn't hook - heads towards NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 EURO low track is very similar to last night's 0z run. Hooks up SE of Erie. - more like Pittsburgh this time. Doesn't hook - heads towards NYC. LOL that progression of edits. You were like now, uh now, uh nvm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Are we one more run from having everything fully sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 F-gen band setup right over my house. Extends way back in Iowa straight through here into the Thumb of MI. Map in just a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 F-gen band setup right over my house. Extends way back in Iowa straight through here into the Thumb of MI. Map in just a minute. Ahhhh just north of me probably... Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Euro is pretty much a whiff to the north of the QCA. Does show that nice east/west band along the IL/WI border, but not quite as much qpf as some of the higher res models. Don't think it could pick up that feature as well as the higher res models, so it's probably underdone there. Based on tonight's guidance I'll make the final call for here. Early call of 1-2" is too high. Gonna go with 0.0-0.6" snow, with 0.05-0.15" of rain/mix for here/QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 So the GGEM is essentially on its own now. The NAM / GFS / UKMET still have a faily good consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 F-gen band setup right over my house. Extends way back in Iowa straight through here into the Thumb of MI. Map in just a minute. Sounds better than previous runs for good snow on the frontog. band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Consensus for Toronto getting a big snowfall is pretty high now. I think you do have a floor up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Bring on the death band. Hope it sets up like the one did in November. She was a beaut! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Nah not for watches, there is enough consensus of a potential for 6"+ snowfall for SEMI to issue a watch. Yeah, given the NAM / GFS / UKMET / EURO consensus, I highly doubt they're issuing watches now (at least not anything before the 12z runs). At best, they may do so for the areas where the frontogenesis band is expected to set up. Even that's a maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 0zEURO_022916.png Consensus for Toronto getting a big snowfall is pretty high now. I think you do have a floor up there. Ahhh nice. Yeah Euro totals probably overdone but basic consensus is for the f-gen band to set up by IL/WI border. So basically nothing for N Cook and points south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 0zEURO_022916.png Consensus for Toronto getting a big snowfall is pretty high now. I think you do have a floor up there. Seems like that is a north shift with that band compared to 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Our Toronto friends are looking good. I really hope they can get pounded on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Seems like that is a north shift with that band compared to 12z? Definitely. My area went from around 2 inches to 4-5 inches on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Ahhh nice. Yeah Euro totals probably overdone but basic consensus is for the f-gen band to set up by IL/WI border. So basically nothing for N Cook and points south Well about 4" for you. Seems like that is a north shift with that band compared to 12z? The EURO is right in between the GGEM and GFS now. 25 mile shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Euro with little to no cold sector precip, I can't wait for the upgrade to go live next week, not coming soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Yeah, given the NAM / GFS / UKMET / EURO consensus, I highly doubt they're issuing watches now (at least not anything before the 12z runs). At best, they may do so for the areas where the frontogenesis band is expected to set up. Even that's a maybe. I wouldn't consider the Euro part of the consensus, it is on the far SE end of the envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Bring on the death band. Hope it sets up like the one did in November. She was a beaut! Chance of a death band: likely With 0.55" of moisture here, 0.5" for you and temps in the 20s for this event we could be seeing those 8" totals Cyclone was mentioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I wouldn't consider the Euro part of the consensus, it is on the far SE end of the envelope. The surface low track is not a carbon copy, but the forcing / dynamics evolve similarly, as shown by the snowfall output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 While most of our shortwave was onshore and over the lower 48 for the 00z run, a small piece of it was still just offshore (see image below). So that could explain the solutions we got tonight, versus what we had during the 12z runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 ARW and NMM NMM with a spot of 1.25"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Not real excited about the possibility of watching another death band miss me to the north... Although, I am not certain that IL will get much play, could certainly see this ticking a bit stronger and having southern wi as ground zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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