Toronto4 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Bigger than February 7, 2013? Not sure yet, but the 00Z GGEM has over 15" for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 0z UKMET is interesting. It starts the sfc low out further north, almost at the IA/MO/IL triple point at 36, but then basically tracks it due E-W so that by 48 it's near the consensus location in NE OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Just looked it over: The GEM has been consistent for 102 hours now with it's snow area The GFS has not been consistent at all at this juncture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 SSC you're buried! Would be swell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Despite the pretty maps, it's a quick mover and not liking the lack of a true deformation zone (main driver of precip looks like it's PVA/WAA). I think it could be a very nice storm but throwing out storms like Jan 1999 or Feb 2013 in comparison is probably going to lead to disappointment. One caveat...if we could get into some of the early frontogenesis banding. That may be the wildcard. Currently, it looks like it blows its load a bit to Toronto's N & W. Good points. For now, I'd say 6" is the floor for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NMM really likes the band near the IL/WI border...some 1" qpf by 12z Tuesday. ARW tamer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Good points. For now, I'd say 6" is the floor for this storm. Lol there's no floor we can't crash right through. I'll hold off any calls til tomorrow. Thinking given the relatively good model consensus we'll see a WSW in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I won't sugar coat this, but after seeing these f-gen types of setups impact the area, they usually setup between Homedis' location and the Racine/Milwaukee County line roughly. The GFS position of the band isn't typical. As Gino from Chicago, and others have mentioned that band tomorrow night should be very interesting. I mentioned something about it this morning too, although it may be even stronger than I had previously thought. We all saw how that Nov band overachieved up in far northern IL, and this could be sort of a repeat of that if things come together. I would place the southern two tiers of WI as the best shot at that band stalling across, but the northernmost tier in IL may be in it as well. Gonna be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 UKMET QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 UKMET QPF Some of that includes tonight's precipitation. Below is more realistic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Just looked it over: The GEM has been consistent for 102 hours now with it's snow area The GFS has not been consistent at all at this juncture We get the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Not gonna lie...I like seeing the models show the heavier snow moving up to my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Some of that includes tonight's precipitation. Below is more realistic: Can't catch a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Not really sure why the GGEM is pushing the band a bit south over Lake Michigan though...doesn't seem like any good reason for it. If it didn't, the totals would be very similar to the other models...except for Hill's location where it shows him getting 274821 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 As Geos said earlier, I think we're going to end up seeing the fgen band set up somewhere between Chicago and MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Not really sure why the GGEM is pushing the band a bit south over Lake Michigan though...doesn't seem like any good reason for it. If it didn't, the totals would be very similar to the other models...except for Hill's location where it shows him getting 274821 inches of snow. It has to do with the where the front/baroclinic zone stalls at. It mirrors the temperature gradient nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Not really sure why the GGEM is pushing the band a bit south over Lake Michigan though...doesn't seem like any good reason for it. If it didn't, the totals would be very similar to the other models...except for Hill's location where it shows him getting 274821 inches of snow. Knock it off. I'm just posting models. By the way the Ukie was more GEM like, and if trends continue so will the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Not sure if the 12z Parallel EURO was posted, but it shows 1-2 feet from Fort Wayne to Detroit to Sarnia, ON (in a 50 mile wide swath). Amounts drop off quickly SE of this corridor while they're generally in the 3-6" range within the frontogenesis band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Knock it off. I'm just posting models. By the way the Ukie was more GEM like, and if trends continue so will the Euro. Stop repeating the same thing 5 times in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Not sure if the 12z Parallel EURO was posted, but it shows 1-2 feet from Fort Wayne to Detroit to Sarnia, ON (in a 50 mile wide swath). Amounts drop off quickly SE of this corridor while they're generally in the 3-6" range within the frontogenesis band. Seems like this has the possibility of being the most widespread system of the season across the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Seems like this has the possibility of being the most widespread system of the season across the forum. Possibly. By this season's standards, most of the events so far have been fairly widespread in terms of the areas that are impacted, notwithstanding the screw zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Possibly. By this season's standards, most of the events so far have been fairly widespread in terms of the areas that are impacted, notwithstanding the screw zones. They've been widespread in their screw zones too! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 They've been widespread in their screw zones too! Lol True, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 MKX about to pull the trigger on watches. Just waiting for the good ol' EURO. 656FXUS63 KMKX 290446AFDMKXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI1046 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016.UPDATE...THE LATEST NAM AND GFS NOW FOCUS OVER SRN WI FOR MDT TOHEAVY SNOWFALL MON NT AND TUE AM. IF THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE THEREWILL FINALLY BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR THE FIRST TIME WITHTHIS SYSTEM. A STRONG N-S TROPOSPHERIC TEMP GRADIENT WILL STALLOVER SRN WI AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MON AFT. AS A COUPLEUPPER WAVES APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS...A SWLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP MONNT AND PRODUCE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED AROUND 850 MB OVERSRN WI. IT WILL BE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM ANDBY THE RRQD OF THE UPPER JET. GFS AND NAM QPF AROUND 0.55 INCHESBUT CONCERNED QPF WILL BE HIGHER WITHIN A NARROW W-E BAND OFHEAVIEST SNOWFALL. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 25-30 MPH OVERTHE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AND SNOW MAY BE DRY ENOUGH TO BLOW ANDDRIFT FAIRLY WELL. WINTER WX HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THEEARLY MON AM FORECAST PACKAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 MKX about to pull the trigger on watches. Just waiting for the good ol' EURO. DTX, IWX, GRR and ORD are going to have it the toughest with these headlines thanks to the latest guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 DTX, IWX, GRR and ORD are going to have it the toughest with these headlines thanks to the latest guidance. I would put a watch out for all of DTX's CWA and then if needed go backwards to a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 New HRW-NNM really hammers the northern tier of counties of IL tomorrow night with that east/west band of snow. Deposits over an inch of qpf in a narrow zone. Geos points west towards Rockford buried. EDIT: I'm thinking Dubuque to Kenosha/Geos gets 8"+ easily at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 MKX about to pull the trigger on watches. Just waiting for the good ol' EURO.Hopefully Euro will be south in N IL lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I would put a watch out for all of DTX's CWA and then if needed go backwards to a WWA. I would too, but given their history (the last storm notwithstanding), I wouldn't put it past them to err on the side of caution and hold off on issuing any headlines until after the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 New HRW-NNM really hammers the northern tier of counties of IL tomorrow night with that east/west band of snow. Deposits over an inch of qpf in a narrow zone. Geos points west towards Rockford buried. EDIT: I'm thinking Dubuque to Kenosha/Geos gets 8"+ easily at this point. I was just looking at the GGEM and it has converging winds right over me tomorrow evening at 850 mb. Will have to take a peak at those maps. Most guidance shows upper 20s here tomorrow night. 2-6" in my grid now. EURO is rolling. Freezing line passes through at about 7pm or just before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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