UMB WX Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Gonna ride my early call of 1-2" for the QCA for now, but I'm thinking we'll probably end up under an inch. WAA stays north, main snow band misses east. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if we get skunked again, but I'll hold out hope for now. would exactly be my post if I was living in your location I feel the same up here except im more worried about missing the jackpot if you will of the waa south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Gonna ride my early call of 1-2" for the QCA for now, but I'm thinking we'll probably end up under an inch. WAA stays north, main snow band misses east. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if we get skunked again, but I'll hold out hope for now. If that front can get farther south back to the west tomorrow, then I could see you getting more snow. That will be key to watch. The 12km NAM, 4km NAM, GFS, and RGEM have the f-gen snow core 60-75 miles north of the freezing line roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Gonna ride my early call of 1-2" for the QCA for now, but I'm thinking we'll probably end up under an inch. WAA stays north, main snow band misses east. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if we get skunked again, but I'll hold out hope for now. As I said nearly a couple weeks ago, better luck next winter. I really don't expect much from this storm to be honest and I'm ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Not holding out much hope for the band here tomorrow night in terms of snow. Profiles look questionable at best aloft and really easily too warm for snow on most model runs with the RGEM being the closest/most favorable to support snow. Big question I have is how the band develops/shifts and what the southern extent is like. If it can precipitate far enough south into the warmer air, then not out of the question that a narrow area somewhere around here ends up with fairly decent glazing by Tuesday morning but it's not necessarily something I'd bank on at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Not holding out much hope for the band here tomorrow night in terms of snow. Profiles look questionable at best aloft and really easily too warm for snow on most model runs with the RGEM being the closest/most favorable to support snow. Big question I have is how the band develops/shifts and what the southern extent is like. If it can precipitate far enough south into the warmer air, then not out of the question that a narrow area somewhere around here ends up with fairly decent glazing by Tuesday morning but it's not necessarily something I'd bank on at this point. Im honestly a little worried that even I'm going to miss out on most of the snow if the fgen band sets up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 00z GGEM shows 1-2 feet along I-94 in Michigan and along/between the 401 and 402 in Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 This would pale to some of the 1800s stuff. But in recent times (like after 1970), I can't recall witnessing/reading about a footer+ snowstorm in March. The closest one that I can think of is March 3-4, 1985. 30 cm (12") of heavy wet snow mixed in with rain. Some areas in the GTA got close to 35 cm (14"). I can't recall experiencing that storm as I was very young at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GGEM says "I SHALL NOT BE MOVED" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 00z GGEM shows 1-2 feet along I-94 in Michigan and along the 401 in Ontario. Wow that's awesome.. out that way is that euro like from days ago? Doesn't get much worse than that for travelers in the MW including canada. lotta highway there. This time I'm really going to bed.. sleep has been very low this weekend like the last one in to early week.. 5am is going to come in a blink after i close my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Im honestly a little worried that even I'm going to miss out on most of the snow if the fgen band sets up north Almost feels like we have to take this one in segments. I do have some optimism for several inches on Tuesday but confidence not the greatest obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Almost feels like we have to take this one in segments. I do have some optimism for several inches on Tuesday but confidence not the greatest obviously. Yeah it's going to be either 9" or 1" haha. You won last time... lets see who will win this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The closest one that I can think of is March 3-4, 1985. 30 cm (12") of heavy wet snow mixed in with rain. Some areas in the GTA got close to 35 cm (14"). I can't recall experiencing that storm as I was very young at the time. Thanks for the info T4. The March 4-5, 2001 storm is probably the biggest March snowstorm of my life thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Thanks for the info T4. The March 4-5, 2001 storm is probably the biggest March snowstorm of my life thus far. Surprised your recent March history has been that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Another great run for Toronto. What's the biggest snowstorm in their history for March? I believe there was a March in the 1870s in which Toronto got pounded with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Surprised your recent March history has been that bad. Our climo is pretty inhospitable to snowstorms in March, beyond say the first week of the month or so. Not like you guys further to the west. Even with my latitude, I doubt I do much better in terms of 6"+ snowstorms than most of OH. It's more of an E-W thing than N-S. At least that's my theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 FWIW the WPC threw out the GFS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT, THENTHE OH VALLEY TUE AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGEJUST WHEN THE GUIDANCE HAD BECOME TIGHTLY PACKED, THE 00Z GFSTHREW A WRENCH INTO THE SITUATION AND SOMEHOW BECAME MOREAMPLIFIED AND FASTER WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM, RESEMBLING THE28/00Z ECMWF RUN AND DEPARTING THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE LOWCLUSTERING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE LOWCLUSTERING FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET/12ZECMWF/00Z NAM, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGECONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 March 1870 was the snowiest March in Toronto's history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Surprised your recent March history has been that bad. Well we've only had one 11"+ storm in the past 7 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I won't sugar coat this, but after seeing these f-gen types of setups impact the area, they usually setup between Homedis' location and the Racine/Milwaukee County line roughly. The GFS position of the band isn't typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Thanks for the info T4. The March 4-5, 2001 storm is probably the biggest March snowstorm of my life thus far. You're welcome. If things fall into place, this could be Toronto's biggest snowstorm since January 2-3, 1999 (and that was aided by lake enhancement off Ontario). Looking at the 00z models so far, the storm gets stronger as it heads ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 You're welcome. If things fall into place, this could be Toronto's biggest snowstorm since January 2-3, 1999 (and that was aided by lake enhancement off Ontario). Looking at the 00z models so far, the storm gets stronger as it heads ENE. Bigger than February 7, 2013? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 You're welcome. If things fall into place, this could be Toronto's biggest snowstorm since January 2-3, 1999 (and that was aided by lake enhancement off Ontario). Looking at the 00z models so far, the storm gets stronger as it heads ENE. It feels weird that the latest GFS, Euro and GGEM runs all have Toronto with a footer... kind of hard to believe given how the winter has been going... but I'll start to believe we have a good shot come full sampling by 12Z tomorrow... just after getting burned so bad by the last system, I know it can be taken away just like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 0z UKMET is interesting. It starts the sfc low out further north, almost at the IA/MO/IL triple point at 36, but then basically tracks it due E-W so that by 48 it's near the consensus location in NE OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I won't sugar coat this, but after seeing these f-gen types of setups impact the area, they usually setup between Homedis' location and the Racine/Milwaukee County line roughly. The GFS position of the band isn't typical. 00z GFS is an outlier in the northern position, so there's that. Curious where the ARW and NMM will have it when they come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 This is an interesting snow alignment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 You're welcome. If things fall into place, this could be Toronto's biggest snowstorm since January 2-3, 1999 (and that was aided by lake enhancement off Ontario). Looking at the 00z models so far, the storm gets stronger as it heads ENE. Despite the pretty maps, it's a quick mover and not liking the lack of a true deformation zone (main driver of precip looks like it's PVA/WAA). I think it could be a very nice storm but throwing out storms like Jan 1999 or Feb 2013 in comparison is probably going to lead to disappointment. One caveat...if we could get into some of the early frontogenesis banding. That may be the wildcard. Currently, it looks like it blows its load a bit to Toronto's N & W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 This is an interesting snow alignment. You can say one thing, the GEM does not want to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I won't sugar coat this, but after seeing these f-gen types of setups impact the area, they usually setup between Homedis' location and the Racine/Milwaukee County line roughly. The GFS position of the band isn't typical. Exactly. WPC's preference makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 SSC you're buried! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 This is an interesting snow alignment. Cook County Special hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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