UMB WX Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Under what reasoning? Plenty of models show a good hit of snow for many location and as for the 4km NAM the precip plotting makes sense but it is too warm aloft which is common with it... Guess what I was getting at is - I in the end believe most of us wont get in on both parts to double dip in to a real nice warning event. I can definitely see areas to the east in the game for a juicy followup after sacrificing not scoring in the fronto snows the best. In the end I feel something not a whole lot off of what 12z euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I think the snow bands will expand to include most everyone in the end. If we can just get the frontogenesis snow and some synoptic snow will be golden. 4km NAM is as close as any model has gotten. Liking where I sit. Yeah I just don't see any chance of that up here.. now south down by Chicago and maybe up to you i could see some syn snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 29, 2016 Author Share Posted February 29, 2016 In the end I feel something not a whole lot off of what 12z euro is showing. Based on..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Yeah I just don't see any chance of that up here.. now south down by Chicago and maybe up to you i could see some syn snow. Keep in mind what purduewx said. The wave that will be this storm is probably being underestimated by models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM Model Run: 0Z FEB 29, 2016 Station ID: KORD Lat: 41.97 Long: -87.9018z Nam .257 for Ohare0z Nam = .71 but .18 is for thursday. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kord.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Keep in mind what purduewx said. The wave that will be this storm is probably being underestimated by models. Agreed there, some of the afternoon AFD's brought that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Based on..? Just where my uneducated forecast has brought me at this point of pretty closely and hr heavily tracking it. I'm probably not making much sense but it is what it is and I'm pretty comfortable in a euro like solution here after the fronto snows. I don't really have a clue whats going to happen after the fronto snows and most I imagine dont including nws employees. My focus is and always has been on where the fronto snows set up as that's all us to the north more (WI) were in the game for after the euro went away from its amped storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Keep in mind what purduewx said. The wave that will be this storm is probably being underestimated by models. O yeah for sure and I just love reading everybodys thoughts. I just strongly feel and believe since friday night it was just going to be a fronto event here with swings north and south to drive me enough nuts. what happens after that with the low I've had no hope for so haven't really paid hardly any attention to the details like i have for round one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Chicago nws Izzi updateAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL849 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016.UPDATE...849 PM CSTTHE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTOTUESDAY AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERNS FOR A POTENTLY BAND OFHEAVY SNOW EITHER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...OR FAR SOUTHERNWISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.THERE IS CURRENTLY A VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTH CENTRALCANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. IN FACT...THE 00UTC RAOBS INDICATED TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB OF -28C AT CYQD INMANITOBA...AND +1C AT KBIS. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH THISSTRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ONMONDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC SURFACE COLD FRONT...THEN SETTING ITUP RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MONDAY EVENING. AT THE SAMETIME...A POTENT PV ANOMALY...CURRENTLY NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERYPUSHING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARDOVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INDUCE A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVERTHE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE WINDFIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING LOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLYINTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA...POTENTIALLYSETTING UP A VERY INTENSE BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS OVER FAR NORTHERNILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONEDO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG FGEN AROUND THE 850 MBLEVEL BENEATH A REGION OF -EPV AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.WHILE UNCERTAINTY CERTAINLY CONTINUES WITH WHERE EXACTLY THISPOTENTIAL MESOSCALE BAND OF FGEN WILL SET UP...THERE CONTINUES TOBE SIGNS THAT IT COULD BE RIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS ANDSOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SETUPS SUCH AS THESE CAN PRODUCE CONVECTIVEHEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN NARROW BANDS...AND BECAUSE OFTHIS...THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER ATLEAST A SMALL NARROW PORTION OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG OR NORTHOF I-88 COULD EXPERIENCE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES...POSSIBLYLEADING TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 6 INCHES BYTUESDAY.BECAUSE OF THE CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE WE VERY STRONGLYCONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR NORTHERNILLINOIS. HOWEVER...WITH THE 00 UTC NAM AND SOME OF THE HIRESGUIDANCE COMING IN WARMER...AND SUGGESTING MORE SLEET AND A BITFARTHER NORTH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVER PRECIP...WE WILL BE HOLDINGOFF ON THE WATCH TO AWAIT A LOOK AT THE 00 UTC GLOBAL GUIDANCE. IFTHE GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MATCH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...THENA WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES INILLINOIS.STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK STABILITY AND EVENMODEST SLANT-WISE INSTABILITY TYPICALLY RESULTS IN NARROW INTENSEBANDED PRECIP...WHICH GUIDANCE IS PRETTY STRONGLY DEPICTINGTOMORROW NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTS THIS F-GEN ZONE WILL MOVE LITTLETOMORROW NIGHT...SO MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM THERE COULD BESOME VERY TIGHT GRADIENTS IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...MUCH TIGHTERTHAN CAN BE PRECISELY DEPICTED IN GRIDS THIS FAR OUT. THE SOUTHERNEXTENT OF THE SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY P-TYPE ISSUESAND WARMER TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIERSNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SUBSIDENCE ON THE COOL SIDE OFTHE FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION ATTHIS POINT IS WHERE EXACTLY THIS SETS UP.AREAS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE I80 CORRIDOR COULD EXPERIENCE AWINTRY MIX BEFORE THE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH EITHER LATE MONDAY NIGHTOR EARLY TUESDAY TO CHANGE THINGS OVER TO SNOW. AS A RESULT...SNOWAMOUNTS COULD END UP LIGHTER NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR.KJB/IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 It will be interesting to see what the Euro thinks. I am cautiously optimistic, but am wary, given the way this winter has gone. Wishing everyone in the sub-forum good luck with this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Chicago nws Izzi update AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 849 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016 .UPDATE... 849 PM CST THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERNS FOR A POTENTLY BAND OF HEAVY SNOW EITHER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...OR FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS CURRENTLY A VERY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. IN FACT...THE 00 UTC RAOBS INDICATED TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB OF -28C AT CYQD IN MANITOBA...AND +1C AT KBIS. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC SURFACE COLD FRONT...THEN SETTING IT UP RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MONDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...A POTENT PV ANOMALY...CURRENTLY NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PUSHING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INDUCE A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING LOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA...POTENTIALLY SETTING UP A VERY INTENSE BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS OVER FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG FGEN AROUND THE 850 MB LEVEL BENEATH A REGION OF -EPV AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE UNCERTAINTY CERTAINLY CONTINUES WITH WHERE EXACTLY THIS POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BAND OF FGEN WILL SET UP...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNS THAT IT COULD BE RIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SETUPS SUCH AS THESE CAN PRODUCE CONVECTIVE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN NARROW BANDS...AND BECAUSE OF THIS...THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER AT LEAST A SMALL NARROW PORTION OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG OR NORTH OF I-88 COULD EXPERIENCE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 6 INCHES BY TUESDAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE WE VERY STRONGLY CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...WITH THE 00 UTC NAM AND SOME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE COMING IN WARMER...AND SUGGESTING MORE SLEET AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVER PRECIP...WE WILL BE HOLDING OFF ON THE WATCH TO AWAIT A LOOK AT THE 00 UTC GLOBAL GUIDANCE. IF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MATCH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...THEN A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK STABILITY AND EVEN MODEST SLANT-WISE INSTABILITY TYPICALLY RESULTS IN NARROW INTENSE BANDED PRECIP...WHICH GUIDANCE IS PRETTY STRONGLY DEPICTING TOMORROW NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTS THIS F-GEN ZONE WILL MOVE LITTLE TOMORROW NIGHT...SO MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK`S SYSTEM THERE COULD BE SOME VERY TIGHT GRADIENTS IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...MUCH TIGHTER THAN CAN BE PRECISELY DEPICTED IN GRIDS THIS FAR OUT. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY P-TYPE ISSUES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SUBSIDENCE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS WHERE EXACTLY THIS SETS UP. AREAS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE I80 CORRIDOR COULD EXPERIENCE A WINTRY MIX BEFORE THE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH EITHER LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY TO CHANGE THINGS OVER TO SNOW. AS A RESULT...SNOW AMOUNTS COULD END UP LIGHTER NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR. KJB/IZZI wow strongly worded definitely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Terrific read and Strongly agree with izzi.. its looking prime in northern Illinois. I would love to hear his early thoughts on to the south and east of Wisconsin with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 FWIW, and it's probably worth next to nothing, the SREF plumes have a good amount of good hits for Chicago, and a few DAB. Been fun watching this unfold! Also, that AFD was a good read! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 ^ Let me condense in simpler terms: crapshoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GFS looking a bit warmer/a lot weaker on instantweathermaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Well GFS is north. Nice hit for S. Wisco but the whole run seems sorta weird with how the low almost jumps around - any explanation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 ^ Let me condense in simpler terms: crapshoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 RGEM SN_000-048_0000.gif Sweet. I've seen some intense rates from these types of features before. 2"+ hour in a few cases. Great discussion from Izzi as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 0z GFS is a little faster but looks NAM ish for Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 0z gfs. Good thing chicago nws didnt put out watches. Best FGEN has for the time being has moved north of wisconsin border/http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GFS&p=accsnow&rh=2016022900&fh=45&r=mw&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 0z gfs. Good thing chicago nws didnt put out watches. Best FGEN has for the time being has moved north of wisconsin border/ http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GFS&p=accsnow&rh=2016022900&fh=45&r=mw&dpdt= Where is UMB WX? haha he would be excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Nice YYZ hit on the GFS. No taint for the first time in several runs. 13" on 0.8" liquid, although I'm skeptical of >15:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I would think the f-gen band would be a little closer to the freezing line, which gets down to Kankakee on the NAM's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Where is UMB WX? haha he would be excited didn't expect to almost be sweating the dryslot soon like the 18z nam i was. nam and gfs has been nice in this area for a handful of runs now. its the other models not playing up here. Off to bed. Everybody have fun with the euro for those staying up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 didn't expect to almost be sweating the dryslot soon like the 18z nam i was. nam and gfs has been nice in this area for a handful of runs now. its the other models not playing up here. Off to bed. Everybody have fun with the euro for those staying up. haha thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Another great run for Toronto. What's the biggest snowstorm in their history for March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Another great run for Toronto. What's the biggest snowstorm in their history for March? This would pale to some of the 1800s stuff. But in recent times (like after 1970), I can't recall witnessing/reading about a footer+ snowstorm in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Another great run for Toronto. What's the biggest snowstorm in their history for March? Seems a rarity se mi would get a lot less than the toronto area. But the GFS shows me one way how it can be done. Just seems tough to do unless its a timed well late bloomer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Gonna ride my early call of 1-2" for the QCA for now, but I'm thinking we'll probably end up under an inch. WAA stays north, main snow band misses east. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if we get skunked again, but I'll hold out hope for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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