HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM looks like it's going to try and quasi-bomb this thing. Yep, and it manages to present a unique way for us (Detroit) to get screwed with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM is sleety at YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 It's trolling Chicago. Im moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Yep, and it manages to present a unique way for us (Detroit) to get screwed with this thing. Sleet, and then somehow the best defo snows miss to the SE. LOL...I've been pretty calm in the horrendous winter but that would require a rant in the complaint thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 It's trolling Chicago. Chicago's far from alone in the NAM's troll job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Sleet, and then somehow the best defo snows miss to the SE. LOL...I've been pretty calm in the horrendous winter but that would require a rant in the complaint thread. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I wouldn't buy the NAM as is, it randomly blows up a piece of vorticity ahead of the main trough that screws up the track for one thing, also not to mention it has horrendous run to run consistency. Lastly it is very weird with the precip plots random blotches here and there with no real rhyme or reason to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Sleet, and then somehow the best defo snows miss to the SE. LOL...I've been pretty calm in the horrendous winter but that would require a rant in the complaint thread. I tried not to mention it (because I didn't think it would even be a plausible outcome), but the JMA actually showed something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Nam is prob best case for here in the end and id be very happy if the euro was something like that tonight and locks in. we were never in it for a 2 part sweet spot.. Just hope to have fun on the fronto was what we were hoping for all along after the euro ditched the big one. Nam is sweet looking to the east for the lucky ones in it. Good mind games stuff these models are putting to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I wouldn't buy the NAM as is, it randomly blows up a piece of vorticity ahead of the main trough that screws up the track for one thing, also not to mention it has horrendous run to run consistency. Lastly it is very weird with the precip plots random blotches here and there with no real rhyme or reason to them. Completely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Yep. Actually, I take that back. The 2nd deformation axis only manages to produce 6-10". So not all that painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The 4km NAM makes much more sense with its precip plots and low track, I would just discount the 12km NAM at this junction until it shows some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I tried not to mention it (because I didn't think it would even be a plausible outcome), but the JMA actually showed something similar. I cannot remember ever experiencing a storm where that happened. I would safely toss this run, notwithstanding the corroboration from the mighty JMA. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I wouldn't buy the NAM as is, it randomly blows up a piece of vorticity ahead of the main trough that screws up the track for one thing, also not to mention it has horrendous run to run consistency. Lastly it is very weird with the precip plots random blotches here and there with no real rhyme or reason to them.^This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'm sorry but there's no way I barely manage just 3" off that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Lol. So characteristic of my luck this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The 4km NAM makes much more sense with its precip plots and low track, I would just discount the 12km NAM at this junction until it shows some consistency. Pretty big sensible differences between the 12km and 4km runs. Clearly we're still in flux with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Chicago's far from alone in the NAM's troll job. O yeah I know. There's a gap straight east from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 4K NAM is one of the biggest 12K vs 4K i've seen in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM is pretty close to what i expected it to look like up here when looking from hr 12 on with the fronto. Its after it got a little weird but meh I think it kind of had to show something like that after it juiced up on the bottle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The 4km NAM is pretty messy for most. It goes from Snow to Ice to Snow, but no significant amounts of either precip type for any one location. EDIT: At least per the Kuchera method: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 29, 2016 Author Share Posted February 29, 2016 Defo band placed more NW from sfc low (also looks a bit more amped) and gets the deformations snows into the southern half or so of the LOT CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The 4km NAM is pretty messy for most. It goes from Snow to Ice to Snow, but no significant amounts of either precip type for any one location. EDIT: At least per the Kuchera method: What's the difference between TD and PW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The 4km NAM is pretty messy for most. It goes from Snow to Ice to Snow, but no significant amounts of either precip type for any one location. EDIT: At least per the Kuchera method: In the end this likely will probably be the outcome for most of us. whoa, whose the few lucky ones down their in Indiana on the 4k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 What's the difference between TD and PW? Tropical Tidbits uses a straight 10:1 snow-to-water ratio, whereas the Kuchera method on Pivotalweather uses a special algorithm to account for marginal temps, how well lift/moisture intersects the DGZ, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 In the end this likely will probably be the outcome for most of us. Under what reasoning? Plenty of models show a good hit of snow for many location and as for the 4km NAM the precip plotting makes sense but it is too warm aloft which is common with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 In the end this likely will probably be the outcome for most of us. I think the snow bands will expand to include most everyone in the end. If we can just get the frontogenesis snow and some synoptic snow will be golden. 4km NAM is as close as any model has gotten. Liking where I sit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 RGEM quicker and weaker than the NAM. Precip. distribution less funky as well. A couple of 1000mb lows just north of the Ohio River in IN and OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 In the end this likely will probably be the outcome for most of us. whoa, whose the few lucky ones down their in Indiana on the 4k Probably, given the luck many of us have had this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.