Hoosier Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Took a trip down model memory lane to this run of the GFS from a few days ago. Wouldn't it be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Took a trip down model memory lane to this run of the GFS from a few days ago. Wouldn't it be nice gfs.gif The NOGAPS run from a couple days ago would be nice as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 In LESS than 2 weeks...we will have gone from snowcover, to temps in the 60s, to a snowstorm, to temps in the 60s, to potentially another winter storm. We went from 70 degrees on Saturday 2/20 to a blizzard warning on 2/24 with 3", 2/28 we hit 66 degrees with no snow cover and broke a record high from 1895. Now that's a roller coaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 January 14th, 1992 is showing up on the CIPS analog list. What happened that day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 What happened that day? One of Detroit's best snowstorms. Several hours of thundersnow and 12"+ amounts in the city proper. There was a steady decrease in snow amounts/intensity the further NW one went, as the storm tracked from Nashville to Erie, PA. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1992/us0114.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 What happened that day? Nice TOL-DTW special storm http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/IMAGES/COOP/72HR/1992/19920115_072_total.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Took a trip down model memory lane to this run of the GFS from a few days ago. Wouldn't it be nice gfs.gif Think Hoosier might know something we don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 3/12/14 may be another good analog. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2014/us0312.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 4 types of precipitation near Detroit, Toledo, and Fort Wayne. Apparently this run of the GFS hates Fort Wayne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 4 types of precipitation near Detroit, Toledo, and Fort Wayne. Apparently this run of the GFS hates Fort Wayne Aside from that particular frame you posted, DTW is mostly snow on that run... And even that brief period of freezing rain is questionable, as the warm layer is no greater than 1*C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 One of Detroit's best snowstorms. Several hours of thundersnow and 12"+ amounts in the city proper. There was a steady decrease in snow amounts/intensity the further NW one went, as the storm tracked from Nashville to Erie, PA. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1992/us0114.php Nice TOL-DTW special storm http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/IMAGES/COOP/72HR/1992/19920115_072_total.png That is probably the first snowstorm I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Lots of spread among 21Z SREF members, many with largely a swing and a miss for here. I think the 00Z suite will be very interesting indeed. But at the same time the wave won't be fully ashore until maybe past 12Z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 0Z NAM so far south in Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 0Z NAM so far south in Nebraska. Its 18z run was such a departure from continuity it wouldn't surprise me if it made a slight correction. Still early though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Riding the mix line again this run. Not quite far as far north this run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Lots of spread among 21Z SREF members, many with largely a swing and a miss for here. I think the 00Z suite will be very interesting indeed. But at the same time the wave won't be fully ashore until maybe past 12Z tomorrow. I'm almost 100% confident the suppressed SREF members will be wrong. The threat here is mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 00z NAM will definitely be north / warmer than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 00z NAM will definitely be north / warmer than the 12z run. Should be south/colder than the 18z run though. At least based on what I'm seeing through 36 hours (less phasing with the PV + further south baroclinic zone). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Should be south/colder than the 18z run though. At least based on what I'm seeing through 36 hours (less phasing with the PV + further south baroclinic zone). I'm leaning that direction, but it's still too soon to tell for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM looks to continue the trend with ice thru central IA, N IL and I'd expect it to continue to ON/Lake Erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 0Z NAM switches over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Looks like an area of heavier snow breaking out in central IL at 48 with energy behind the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM is obviously still having issues, I really care about the GFS, EURO (especially the ensembles) and the UKIE as they seem to have a decent hold on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Wow 0z NAM trying to give us Ohio peeps hope. Wow @57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 It's trolling Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'll take that nam run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Interesting NAM run. Certainly different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The NAM has a killer back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM looks like it's going to try and quasi-bomb this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 NAM looks like it's struggling a bit. Weird/inconsistent precip distribution in the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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