Possible winter storm March 1st-2nd

[Powerball]

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_9.png

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_10.png

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_11.png

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_12.png

 

Fewer big dog members on this run.

[Hoosier]

Slight tick south? I think it lost a few members that were trying to get the sfc low into SE MI.

 

It did lose some of those far north members but the mean track looks very close to 12z. 

[Stebo]

It did lose some of those far north members but the mean track looks very close to 12z.

Looks like it has locked in pretty well.

[Powerball]

18z RGEM at 48hr...

 

 

 

[cyclone77]

DVN thinking the American models are too wet in the cold sector, and side more with the Euro...

 

MONDAY NIGHT...WAS HOPING FOR BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THE 1Z
RUNS...BUT WITH THE MAIN WAVE STILL OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
THE 12Z RUNS HAVE DIVERGED MORE THAN YESTERDAY/S RUNS AT THIS TIME.
THE WAVE SHOULD BE COMING MORE ON SHORE FOR BETTER SAMPLING FOR THE
00Z RUNS TONIGHT...BUT IN THE MEAN TIME WILL HAMMER OUT A GENERAL
SOLUTION FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS HAVES
TRENDED BACK NORTH AND STRONGER WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN LLVL
CYCLONE. THEY ARE ALSO WETTER...LIKE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED
LOOKING TOO WET WITH NO MOISTURE INTERRUPTION FROM THE SOUTH THAT IS
LOADED WITH CONVECTION ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE LOW-
MID MS RVR VALLEY...THAT SHOULD ROB FROM THE NORTH. THE NAM AND GFS
DO A 1-2 PUNCH OF WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND BRIEF BANDED
BOUTS OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE INITIAL OVERRUNNING/ ISENTROPIC LIFT
EVENT FROM MID MON EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THEY THEN RAMP UP
THE LOW NORTH OF THE OH RVR VALLEY IN INDIANA ON TUE WHICH PRODUCES
DEF ZONE SNOWS RIGHT ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN INTO CENTRAL CWA...WITH THE
NET RESULT BY BOTH PROCESSES MAKING FOR HIGH END ADVISORY OR LOWER
END WARNING SNOW AMOUNTS/TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE TIME TO PRODUCE ALL
THIS/ACRS MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR MORE OF THE DVN CWA BY
TUE EVENING WHEN THE PRECIP FINALLY PULLS OUT.

THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE TAKING THE PHASING PROCESS AND HANDLING
MOISTURE INGEST OF THE SOUTHERN SHOWER/STORM CLUSTERS MORE
REALISTICALLY...AND DEVELOPS THE MAIN SFC LOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN MOST
OTHER SOLUTIONS PROPAGATING IT UP ALONG THE OH RVR VALLEY TUE
AFTERNOON OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL MO. WILL TREND THE BULK OF THE FCST
THIS PERIOD WITH THE HANDLING OF THE 12Z EURO IN MIND. ASSESSING THE
APPROPRIATE FCST SOUNDINGS...THE INITIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIP
BEFORE 06Z TUE/MON EVENING WILL LOOK TO BREAK OUT AS MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN...WITH LLVL NORTHEAST FLOW ADVECTING COOLER DRIER AIR FOR EVAPO
COOLING INTO RAIN-SLEET SOUNDINGS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 AFTER
MID EVENING. THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR MAY TRANSITION QUICKER TO A SLEET
AND SNOW MIX TOWARD MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE IA SIDE OF THE MS
RVR. THE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO RAIN/SLEET OR EVEN ROUNDS OF MAINLY
SLEET WILL LOOK TO CREEP SOUTHWARD TO I80 AND SOUTH OF THERE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...WHILE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 TRANSITION TO
PRIMARILY WET SNOW LATE MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. WARM GROUND
TEMPS FROM THE RECENT MILD WX MAY IMPEDE SNOW ACCUMS SOME...BUT
STILL SOME CHC FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE TUE IN
THESE AREAS. SOUTH OF HWY 34 IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN IA/NE MO/WEST
CENTRAL IL MAY STAY MAINLY RAIN OR HAVE A LITTLE SLEET MIX WITH RAIN
INTO TUE MORNING.

TUESDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF ENERGY TRANSFERS THE MAIN DEF ZONE PRECIP
SHIELD ALONG AND EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE DVN CWA BY LATE MORNING...
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WITH ONGOING MODEL
UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL HAVE TO HAVE SOME NOD TO THE
AMERICAN MODELS AND LINGER SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
AGAIN...THE 12Z NAM AND GFS WOULD HAVE MODERATE TO BOUTS OF HEAVY
WET SNOW GOING INTO TUE EVENING ADDING UP TO HIGH END ADVISORY OR
EVEN WARNING CRITERIA SNOW AMOUNTS BY THEN...BUT THEIR HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT/FEED AND FURTHER NORTHWEST TRACK IS STILL SUSPECT AT THIS
JUNCTURE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS WITH THE 4 PM FCST
PACKAGE.

[harrisale]

Nice arctic front rolling in Monday eve.

 

[snowlover2]

Yeah really. e17 is great for you.

e15 is good for both of us, I'll vote for that one.  

 

I think watches will be pulled fairly late for this system, due to it not being sampled until the middle of the day tomorrow. Might go straight to a warning in some areas.

not to mention how these storms have ended up a little more e/se than modeled.

[Geos]

4km NAM with the front.

 

3pm to 6pm. CST

 

 

[Geos]

not to mention how these storms have ended up a little more e/se than modeled.

 

With the exception of the GHD Plains Storm.

[blizzardof96]

10/12 GFS ensemble members have QPF AOA 0.75" for YYZ.

[UMB WX]

Last few post of DVN, RGEM and Euro are telling me to turn off PC until tomorrow at work or else drive your self nuts. Think the worst hope for a surprise.

[sparky333]

Hows SE Mich and NW Ohio looking?

[Geos]

Last few post of DVN, RGEM and Euro are telling me to turn off PC until tomorrow at work or else drive your self nuts. Think the worst hope for a surprise.

 

Haha.

 

Don't put much stock in the RGEM right now. Anyways remember that the RGEM snowfall map posted is only 10:1.

[UMB WX]

Haha.

 

Don't put much stock in the RGEM right now. Anyways remember that the RGEM snowfall map posted is only 10:1.

 

Yeah prob no different than putting any stock in NAM right now..  One local news was showing 3-6" but with a disclaimer of dont be surprised if those amounts are adjusted down.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

WPC Discussion, since no one posted it:

 

TROF ENTERING THE PAC NW ATTM AND DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TUESDAY WITH SURFACE REFLECTION DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY TUES NIGHT AND ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z UKMET/ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

BIZARRO SETUP TODAY WITH LARGE MODEL SPREAD AS THE TROF DIGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CMC ARE FASTEST
WHILE THE 12Z GFS IS NOW THE SLOWEST. ADDITIONALLY THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE ON THE OUTER EDGES OF ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS...AS SUCH THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN DETERMINISTIC RUN
IS NOT GOOD WITHIN THE LARGE SPREAD...AND WILL GRAVITATE
PREFERENCE TOWARD THE MEANS OR MODELS THAT BEST REPRESENT THE
MEANS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE FASTEST SOLUTION BUT DID TREND SLOWER
MAINLY DRIVEN BY A LESS LIKELY DEEPER/WRAPPED UP SOLUTION THAT IS
NOT SUPPORTED AS WELL EXCEPT FOR THE 00Z ECENS MEAN WHICH IS ALSO
A BIT FAST COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEANS/DETERMINISTIC . THE 00Z
CMC SUPPORTS THE FASTER ECMWF BUT THE 00Z CMCE MEAN IS ACTUALLY A
BIT SLOWER OVERALL PARTICULARLY WITH THE COLD FRONT ADVANCEMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE LARGEST CONCERN WITH THE
00Z CMC OPERATIONAL RUN. THE 12Z GFS TRENDED FASTER TOWARD THE
MEAN BUT ALSO IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SOUTH WITH THE ENERGY INTO THE
TROF EVENTUALLY LEADING TO A STRONGER SURFACE REFLECTION ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH SLOWS THE PROGRESSION EAST AND BECOMES WELL
DISPLACED FROM THE INCREASING CLUSTER SEEN OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE
END OF DAY 3...BRINGING LESS CONFIDENT IN THIS PARTICULAR
SOLUTION. THE 12Z NAM HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT BUT IS ALSO A
MUCH SLOWER MEMBER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE...THOUGH THE OVERALL
SHAPE/EVOLUTION MAY BE USEFUL IF ACCELERATED TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS ABOUT 3-6 HOURS FASTER). THIS IS DUE TO A MORE DECOUPLED
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WITH THE SOUTHERN ENERGY MUCH SLOWER
THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...AS IT MAY BE MORE USEFUL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z UKMET REMAINS MOST CENTRAL OF THE SOLUTIONS
BUT ALSO STRONGLY FAVORS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH VERY
LITTLE BAROCLINIC LEAF DEVELOPMENT WHICH SEEMS A BIT UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. ENSEMBLE
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FAVORING A SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF...AND
SUCH PROVIDES A PREFERENCE AS SUCH WILL PREFER THE 00Z CMCE MEAN
06Z GEFS MEANS AT BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

19Z UPDATE: WITH THE 12Z UKMET'S FOCUS SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH AND
LESS AMPLIFIED OVERALL...THE OVERALL MASS AND SURFACE REFLECTIONS
APPEAR TO SUPPORT AND PROVIDE NEEDED DEFINITION TO THE MIDDLE
GROUND SOLUTION PRESENTED BY THE 06Z GEFS/00Z CMCE AND TO A POINT
THE FASTER 00Z ECENS MEAN. DUE TO A LESSER AMPLIFIED BAROCLINIC
LEAF ACROSS THE MIDWEST IT STILL MAYBE A BIT TOO DRY AND FAST WITH
A WEAKER/FLATTER SOLUTION THERE. THE 12Z CMC ALSO SLOWED A BIT BUT
REMAINS A FASTER SOLUTION OVERALL INCLUDING FASTER THAN THE 00Z
CMCE...THIS REMAINS PARTICULARLY EVIDENT ACROSS THE GULF STATES
WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT IS A BIT
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE BAROCLINIC LEAF IN THE MIDWEST THAT A
COMBINATION OF THE 12Z CMC/UKMET. THE 12Z ECMWF ALSO SLOWED
FORWARD PROGRESS WITH THE TROF BECOMING BETTER ALIGNED THOUGH
PERHAPS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECENS MEAN...BUT REMAINS
STRONGER/AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THAN THE UKMET/CMC THOUGH ON PAR WITH
THE GFS JUST FASTER. THIS PROVIDES A BIT OF CONFIDENCE USING THE
12Z UKMET/ECMWF IN A BLEND TO REPRESENT THE 00Z ECENS/CMCE AND 06Z
GEFS. THE 12Z GEFS...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT TOWARD THE OPERATIONAL
12Z GFS AND IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE 06Z GEFS WHICH WAS FAVORED
OVER THE 12Z GFS ANYWAY. AS SUCH WILL FAVOR AN ECMWF/UKMET BLEND
THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM BUT A CMC ADDITION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO NEW ENGLAND MAY BE HELPFUL AS WELL...JUST NOT SOUTH WITH THE
COLD FRONT TO REPRESENT THE EARLIER PREFERENCE OF 00Z CMCE/06Z
GEFS. STILL CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN THIS SPREAD.

[A-L-E-K]

TLDR?

[Hoosier]

4km NAM with the front.

 

3pm to 6pm. CST

 

 

 

 

Not the most dramatic pneumonia front ever but respectable enough.

[UMB WX]

ugh.. I knew what that was going to read when seen the poster lol... No offense or anything, Hill. 
 

At least their confidence is below avg to hang my cap on.

[Powerball]

TLDR?

 

See below:

 

WPC Discussion, since no one posted it:

 

BIZARRO SETUP 

[SchaumburgStormer]

ugh.. I knew what that was going to read when seen the poster lol... No offense or anything, Hill.

At least their confidence is below avg to hang my cap on.

Pot calling the kettle black, hahaha

Tough forecast for LOT. Rain, ice, sleet, snow all on the table depending on where you are at.

[A-L-E-K]

Pot calling the kettle black, hahaha

Tough forecast for LOT. Rain, ice, sleet, snow all on the table depending on where you are at.

 

2 tough ones in a row

 

not envious 

[Geos]

Not the most dramatic pneumonia front ever but respectable enough.

 

Then by 9pm you are below freezing. 

That model was pretty cold stays in the mid 20s up here for most of the snow part.

[UMB WX]

Pot calling the kettle black, hahaha

Tough forecast for LOT. Rain, ice, sleet, snow all on the table depending on where you are at.

 

 

lol..Not how i meant it to come across so i added the no offense because I knew it would read that way after last storm and bickering.. deep down we are all about are location first so its tough sometimes i bet to not piss off others

[snowstormcanuck]

10/12 GFS ensemble members have QPF AOA 0.75" for YYZ.

 

And like you mentioned, if we stay snow seems like we're probably in store for a higher that 10:1 ratio event, barring any interference from PL.

 

A little concerned about the fast movement of the system though. Has me hesitant to endorse some of these 10"+ amounts we're seeing, even if we were to stay all snow.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

lol..Not how i meant it to come across so i added the no offense because I knew it would read that way after last storm and bickering.. deep down we are all about are location first so its tough sometimes i bet to not piss off others

 

I don't even know how you got "me posting IMBY crap" out of me posting the WPC's model diagnostic info.

[blizzardof96]

And like you mentioned, if we stay snow seems like we're probably in store for a higher that 10:1 ratio event, barring any interference from PL.

 

A little concerned about the fast movement of the system though. Has me hesitant to endorse some of these 10"+ amounts we're seeing, even if we were to stay all snow.

 

Looking pretty good ATM. Barring a significant shift in the 0z suite, thinking EC might pull the trigger at the 11am update. The problem with the fast movement is that you have to depend on the anomalous +rates to work out like the models are showing. 

[stormtrackertf]

In LESS than 2 weeks...we will have gone from snowcover, to temps in the 60s, to a snowstorm, to temps in the 60s, to potentially another winter storm.

Crazy. This is taking the old "If you don't like the weather now, just wait a few minutes" saying to a whole new level.

 

 

Yeah really. e17 is great for you.

e15 is good for both of us, I'll vote for that one.  

 

I think watches will be pulled fairly late for this system, due to it not being sampled until the middle of the day tomorrow. Might go straight to a warning in some areas.

I'll take it. I'm all for spreading the wealth. Everyone is due right now.

[Powerball]

January 14th, 1992 is showing up on the CIPS analog list. 

[snowstormcanuck]

Looking pretty good ATM. Barring a significant shift in the 0z suite, thinking EC might pull the trigger at the 11am update.

 

Was surprised by the late issue SWS. Tough to say with a Watch...EC loves to be unnecessarily cautious. Could see them waiting for the afternoon update considering snow's not supposed to start until the late afternoon on Tuesday.

 

[UMB WX]

I don't even know how you got "me posting IMBY crap" out of me posting the WPC's model diagnostic info.

 

  I know you would never post IYBY "crap"  

 

We can plz drop it all to.. I apologize for w/e and in my original post i said no offense to you or anything as I knew there was a possibilty to turn in to this childlishnish.