hlcater Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 NAM has Ice for me thru S. Mich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 For whatever reason the models are having a hell of a time figuring this storm out. I've seen them in better agreement on a storm 50+hrs out than this. Just goes to show that guidance still has some major improving to do in the future, as there's certain complexities they still can't deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Forecasts busted a few degrees too low today so this, may also play into a warm scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Energy is coming onshore and with the NAM sniffing this out it might go more north for now but I suspect it may come back south a bit on future runs. There was no new radiosonde data on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 IWX updated point and click to 3-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Main snow axis on the 18z NAM is through Alpena. Except for a few GEFs members, that's a major outlier. It's definitely possible given that the models seem to be playing catch-up with regard to the strength of the wave but I'd set this solution aside...for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 NAM has Ice for me thru S. Mich. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 You knew Hoosier was gonna get trolled by Mr. Rainer after that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 On the plus side still manages to squeeze out almost half a foot of snow at YYZ, despite the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 For whatever reason the models are having a hell of a time figuring this storm out. I've seen them in better agreement on a storm 50+hrs out than this. Just goes to show that guidance still has some major improving to do in the future, as there's certain complexities they still can't deal with. Adds some drama though...would get boring if there were perfect progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 There was no new radiosonde data on this run. I know I'm just saying I think the 18Z run is overcompensating for the strength of the wave on this run. Thinking the 00Z cycle will correct back south with better roab data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Adds some drama though...would get boring if there were perfect progs. Very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 If I didn't know better I would've thought we transported back in time to 2012; decent looking shot at a storm first two days of March followed by the looks of a big torch. that was a ho-hum terrible winter here also.. leap yr to with a big up north storm on the 29th.. hot summer and drought.. we did have a couple run-ups with severe stuff in july if i remember right. its all lining up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 4km NAM has the ice a bit farther south. Gets to freezing here by 0z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Can't say IWX didn't communicate the uncertainty SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2016 ..TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT COMPLICATED AND ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT WAVE WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPANDING AHEAD OF SFC FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION. RUC AND HRRR HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL AREA AND EXPANDING EASTWARD. WENT WITH HIGHER CONSRAW POPS GIVEN MOS AND HIRES TRENDS. FOCUS QUICKLY TURNS TO SYSTEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COMPLICATED UPPER AIR PATTERN WREAKING HAVOC ON DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM. WHILE SOME CONSENSUS HAS BEEN REACHED AMONG MODELS ON BASIC SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION...MANY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN MODELS AND STILL WITHIN EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY DESPITE BEING WITHIN 48 HOURS OF PCPN ONSET. MOST OF THIS DISPARITY COMES FROM FACT THAT MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST TODAY AND WILL NOT BE SAMPLED FULLY UNTIL MONDAY MORNING MOST LIKELY. THIS ENERGY WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH THEN EAST OUT OF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THE DEGREE OF PHASING AND INTERACTION OF THESE WAVES IS PROVING PROBLEMATIC FOR ALL MODELS. WEAKLY COUPLED UPPER JET WILL LEAD TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE TRACK OF THIS LOW AND ITS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS AN ISSUE AMONG MODELS. NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT DEVELOPS QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP OVER NORTHERN AREAS. FGEN FORCING WITH THIS ADVECTION PROCESS WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION...LIKELY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH TO BEGIN. AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME HEAVIER. COMBINATION OF SFC TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AND 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C WILL LEAD TO AREA OF FREEZING RAIN SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA. 12Z SUITE HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH SFC LOW TRACK AND ARE ONCE AGAIN ADVERTISING A STRONG WARM SURGE THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY. GEM AND ECMWF ARE STRONGER WITH COLDER AIR COMING IN FASTER TUESDAY. THESE LATTER MODELS ARE GENERALLY PREFERRED BUT THEY ARE ALSO INDICATING A PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING PRECIPITATION EARLY TUESDAY. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE USED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME OF THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE TO GET MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AND FULLY EXPECT ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN MODELS GIVEN COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN AND INTERACTIONS. STILL RETAINED ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMS IN THE FAR NORTH WITH LESS SNOW ACCUMS CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND DEPENDING ON FINAL TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS A NARROW RIBBON OF ICE ACCUMS COULD COME CLOSE TO 0.20-0.25 INCHES. AGAIN...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BUT SOME TYPE OF HEADLINES LOOK LIKELY GIVEN MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS BEFORE ENDING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS THIS PERIOD REMAIN MURKY GIVEN MODEL DISPARITY BUT HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE EAST WITH WRAP AROUND AS SYSTEM DEPARTS. STAY TUNED TO FORECASTS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 That snow area south of the mix is goofy and unrealistic. Unless Geos reserved a hotel room somewhere in that little hole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 18z RGEM at 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 dProg/dT of the NAM shows it initialized that rear shortwave stronger, which goes on to produce that deeper solution (much deeper and neg tilt aloft). The 18z run is contaminated with convective feedback and doesn't have nearly enough cold sector precip (as did the 12Z GFS), so it's still a grain of salt solution as far as low track and QPF go. There should also be a lake plume Tuesday that will locally enhance snowfall. This air mass north of the border means business. The players on the field suggest to me there is the potential for someone to pick up 12"+ out of this storm, wherever tomorrow night's fronto band coincides with Tuesday's defo band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I'll take the 18Z 4km NAM and 12Z GFS, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2016 Author Share Posted February 28, 2016 Bingo and well said^ Not sure if models will fully come back to the super big runs (the 12z Euro on Friday) but they might try or get close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Unless Geos reserved a hotel room somewhere in that little hole? This is about when the frontogenesis band is really starting up. Temps never get back above freezing from the Loop on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 EPS control mean is from just southwest of Terre Haute to Dayton about. GEFS members. Some big dogs in there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjk254 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Yeah that was Chief Met, Sam Lashley on the discussion for IWX. He ended up going with the later models and sided with the snow starting at 3 am in the hourlies and gave me 2.7 inches of snow and no ZR accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the NAM right now. It's not in its ok range yet. The low jumping around MO and IA is goofy. When the NAM is a serious outlier I tend to write it off and just await for it to adjust back to other guidance.. but dang this is really getting down to where it should at least stop widening the gap between it and the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 NAM frontogenesis fields look really nice. If anyone remembers back to the Nov 21 storm, that band went to town and greatly overperformed in far northern IL/southern WI and helped contribute to that narrow area of really high storm totals. Wherever it sets up tomorrow night hopefully is in for something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 That shortwave was barely sampled at all - more importantly, the vort behind it is very poorly initialized by all guidance (too weak), including 12z coming in. That's telling me the backside jet is coming in stronger and will help this dig more, with the southern wave possibly trending faster and deeper in subsequent guidance. If correct, that suggests some of the negative tilt/beefed up runs from a few days ago may be closer to reality. Will be interesting to see 12z ensembles. DTX at least seems to disagree with the bolded, respectfully... ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT WITH BE A MORE SIFIGNICANT STORM SYSTEMDUE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON COAST DIGS INTO MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NOAM AND PHASES WITH ANOTHER VIGOROUS ARCTIC SHORTWAVE PIVOTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AROUND WEST SIDE OF POLAR VORTEX CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. NOW THAT THESE SHORTWAVES HAVE BEEN SAMPLED TO A LARGER DEGREE...12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE PERHAPS BEGUN TO CONVERGE ON A RELATIVELY STABLE SOLUTION...AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE CHAOTIC MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN FORECASTS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM. GEM/GFS/NAM...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE UKMET...HAVE TRENDED TO A MORE PHASED AND THUS STRONGER SOLUTION FOR THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE THAT LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PHASING ALSO OCCURS FURTHER WEST AND SLOWS THE MAIN SYSTEM/S ARRIVAL SLIGHTLY...WHILE LEADING TO A TRACK NORTH OF THE ROUGH 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF AMPLITUDE OF THE MEAN WESTERN NOAM RIDGE...THIS SOLUTION MAKES MORE SENSE AS THE SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE ARCTIC STORM TRACK WOULD SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO DIG MORE SHARPLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE CONUS PLAINS AND LEAD TO THIS GREATER PHASING AS THE WAVES INTERACT OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. SUCH A SOLUTION WOULD BRING ANOTHER FORMIDABLE WINTER STORM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH A LARGE SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...WITH A LARGER POOL OF ARCTIC AIR NEARBY IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEMS...THE POSSIBLY OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE HIGHER WITH THIS STORM...DEPENDING ON THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE EVENTUAL LOW TRACK TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA...THE JUMPY MODEL SOLUTIONS TO THIS POINT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED ENTIRELY JUST YET. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHILE WEIGHTED TO A STRONGER SYSTEM AS WELL...VARY ENOUGH TO BRING SIGNIFICANT DOUBT TO THE EXACT LOW TRACK AND PRECIPITATION TYPE DISTRIBUTION. WILL NOT MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL TREND TO A GREATER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND INCLUDE A MENTION OF A WINTRY MIX FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION BEGINS WITH FGEN FORCING ALONG STALLED WEST TO EAST FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THIS LOW ORGANIZES AND APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND THEN TRANSTION AN AREA DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 NAM frontogenesis fields look really nice. If anyone remembers back to the Nov 21 storm, that band went to town and greatly overperformed in far northern IL/southern WI and helped contribute to that narrow area of really high storm totals. Wherever it sets up tomorrow night hopefully is in for something good. Given the decent temp gradient and what looks to be excellent low level convergence (both more impressive than what we had during Nov. 21st), there's definitely solid potential for that band to overachieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 dProg/dT of the NAM shows it initialized that rear shortwave stronger, which goes on to produce that deeper solution (much deeper and neg tilt aloft). The 18z run is contaminated with convective feedback and doesn't have nearly enough cold sector precip (as did the 12Z GFS), so it's still a grain of salt solution as far as low track and QPF go. There should also be a lake plume Tuesday that will locally enhance snowfall. This air mass north of the border means business. The players on the field suggest to me there is the potential for someone to pick up 12"+ out of this storm, wherever tomorrow night's fronto band coincides with Tuesday's defo band. Well said. Thanks for your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 EPS control mean is from just southwest of Terre Haute to Dayton about. GEFS members. Some big dogs in there! Wow, that's quite the range of solutions. Definitely are some big dogs in there. e17 gives parts of far northern IN/southern MI over 2 feet and me nothing in southern WI. Some of the others are opposite of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 greenbay likes snow over rain for chicago. not shocking by any means LONG TERM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 304 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016 SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LOOKS LIKELY TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AS A COUPLED JET HELPS INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. MILWAUKEE AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS SHOULD GET A GOOD SNOW OUT OF THIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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