A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 There is risk of a northward shift if the ensembles are an indication. I think part 2 being more of a mixy mess is not out of the question but don't know about rain. i think puduewx did a nice job laying out why this should be stronger i bet against the euro and lost last storm and i'm looking forward to doing it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 This reminds me of Feb. 1-2. last year. Models crashed in the mid range, then built the system up until the arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 i think puduewx did a nice job laying out why this should be stronger i bet against the euro and lost last storm and i'm looking forward to doing it again Just when your out, they pull you back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 It's early, but at 21 the 18z NAM looks flatter with the wave over MT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 This reminds me of Feb. 1-2. last year. Models crashed in the mid range, then built the system up until the arrival. Probably why I almost always forget about that ghd storm. Don't know how i could forget. when i got out of work my care was encased in snow drifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 It's early, but at 21 the 18z NAM looks flatter with the wave over MT. theme of this winter has been to tease us with a few rouge runs to only revert back to a miss.. I expect no different from the gfs and nam this afternoon and 0z. Nothing i can do about it but i hope if the main storm is a whiff south that round one is also a a total whiff.. don't want a salt/stat padder event at alllll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 theme of this winter has been to tease us with a few rouge runs to only revert back to a miss.. I expect no different from the gfs and nam this afternoon and 0z. Nothing i can do about it but i hope if the main storm is a whiff south that round one is also a a total whiff.. don't want a salt/stat padder event at alllll. Meh, by 27 it looks more like a noise level change. Although I know the keep-a-way with the models you're describing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 yeah just seen to hr 30 and doesn't look like a wholesale change coming. I almost dare to say.. oh nevermind lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Meh, by 27 it looks more like a noise level change. Although I know the keep-a-way with the models you're describing. If anything it looks a tad better at 30 hours than 12z. Could be in the noise level the other way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyfisher7 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 DTX updated my point click to 6". I believe it was at 3" this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 hoosier said what I dared not to say about hr 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 hoosier said what I dared not to say about hr 30. You can say it at 36. It'll probably nudge north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 You can say it at 36. It'll probably nudge north. I'm using the ncep only so I'm always behind the rest of you with subscriptions Id imagine? Or is there other outlets to get model output from a little faster for free? edit: im still stuck at 30.. for about a half hr now it seems lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Here's hour 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I'm using the ncep only so I'm always behind the rest of you with subscriptions Id imagine? Or is there other outlets to get model output from a little faster for free? edit: im still stuck at 30.. for about a half hr now it seems lol ewall's up to 42...if you can stand the crap graphics. There's also pivotwx which is pretty quick. http://pivotalweather.com http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_18z/wrfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Very notable jump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Here's hour 39 That snow area south of the mix is goofy and unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 thanks guys. Oh boy maybe we will get round one to green bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 That snow area south of the mix is goofy and unrealistic. should probably be rain, huh 'copter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 That snow area south of the mix is goofy and unrealistic. Yeah that is weird. I don't trust the precip maps on TT very much. Best to pay attention to temperatures. Cold air has made a lot of headway at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 18z completely scuttles the f-gen band. Seems the deeper storm keeps the best RH closer to the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 thanks guys. Oh boy maybe we will get round one to green bay Yeah, I'm not sure we want it that far north, but certainly to Sheboygan and/or Appleton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 awesome we sweat the dryslot now lol. these froto snows always seem to hit a little farther north of here. well that's not what i expected to see. this is one tough one to figure out on the nw fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Low corrects south as the high pushes it along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2016 Author Share Posted February 28, 2016 You knew Hoosier was gonna get trolled by Mr. Rainer after that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 A little NW of CMH by 54. Looks like a good 100 mile jump compared to the 12z valid same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 makes it even more challenging to figure out when the euro is not on board much at all with nam and gfs.. its not like we're really thattt far out either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 If I didn't know better I would've thought we transported back in time to 2012; decent looking shot at a storm first two days of March followed by the looks of a big torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 makes it even more challenging to figure out when the euro is not on board much at all with nam and gfs.. its not like we're really thattt far out either I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the NAM right now. It's not in its ok range yet. The low jumping around MO and IA is goofy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Energy is coming onshore and with the NAM sniffing this out it might go more north for now but I suspect it may come back south a bit on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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