Hoosier Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Can some explain the difference between the GEPS and the GEFS for me? Thanks. GEPS are the Canadian ensemble members. GEFS are the GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 betting man would have its money on the soouthern gefs camp. The mean would be a great track for us. Window is there for lake enhancement this time too. About 12 hours worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Looking at the last couple of GFS runs beyond D7...there's at least a chance this is the last true snowstorm threat of the winter. Rain, snow, or whiff....enjoy the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I would guess DTX hoists watches for the bottom of their CWA. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yes, but will it be an ice storm watch? This GFS run, with p-type algorithm, shows tons of ice for Toledo, Detroit, Buffalo, Toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 We need to see what the, GEGS - Global Ensemble Geos System map shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 GEPS are the Canadian ensemble members. GEFS are the GFS ensembles. Oh, I thought maybe the were ensembles run off the parallel GFS or something. Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Oh, I thought maybe the were ensembles run off the parallel GFS or something. Thanks for the info. Sure And then there's the EPS for the ECMWF. Maybe should've had some coordination when naming these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Yes, but will it be an ice storm watch? This GFS run, with p-type algorithm, shows tons of ice for Toledo, Detroit, Buffalo, Toronto The EURO / GGEM are all snow though, so that must be considered. And besides that, a Winter Storm Watch / Warning is certainly fair game if at least advisory criteria Snow accumulates in addition to the Ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Looks like the energy will approach Vancouver Island this evening. Then jumps into the middle of BC late tonight. Then it slides down through MT. Sampling tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 still looks like a rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Should be some good afternoon AFD reads this afternoon. do they toss gfs and nam.. give the token compromise line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Question for Toronto people: What is the timing for this system in the area? I'm currently in the city and want to see if I should alter plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Liking 1-2" for the QCA at first guess. Euro just moves things along too quickly to get much more than that. Will have to sacrifice some of the early qpf to rain or a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 still looks like a rainer Bittercast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 still looks like a rainer possible rainer in round one and miss south second. tough luck the last 2 systems if it rains by you and up to geos i think that would bold well for the main low coming north.. lets get the waa snow up to green bay.. then maybe it will cut to se michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 still looks like a rainer Trying to use reverse psychology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Bittercast? nano sure if serious looks like rain for MBY...mixing garbage fgen followed by a miss northwest take it to the bank clock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Chicago looking more like 2-4" type a deal to me, maybe 3-5. Of course I thought the last storm would give them up to 6" so take that for what it's worth lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 nano sure if serious looks like rain for MBY...mixing garbage fgen followed by a miss northwest take it to the bank clock You're going to get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 CMH going to get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 nano sure if serious looks like rain for MBY...mixing garbage fgen followed by a miss northwest take it to the bank clock Disagree. First call 3.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 If Alek is thinking NW, then the EURO has a lot of shifting to do. I don't think there is enough room for the low to cut NW and miss Chicago or even NW IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 CMH going to get buried. Not possible this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 nano sure if serious looks like rain for MBY...mixing garbage fgen followed by a miss northwest take it to the bank clock There is risk of a northward shift if the ensembles are an indication. I think part 2 being more of a mixy mess is not out of the question but don't know about rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Question for Toronto people: What is the timing for this system in the area? I'm currently in the city and want to see if I should alter plans. looks like the snow starts later Tuesday with the bulk of the QPF coming Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Looks like the first storm ends up being the alpha. Too bad. Had it been weaker or more of a frontal wave, storm 2 would have had a better environment to play and deepen and would have had a better chance of being a widespread threat for a larger part of the sub. As it stands now, yet another garbage storm with a narrow strip of low end warning paste for a few 'lucky' folk to my north....followed by a whiff south. The trash factor of the 2015-16 winter storm season has been amazingly consistent to the bitter end. At least I can smell the end, and it smells like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 looks like the snow starts later Tuesday with the bulk of the QPF coming Tuesday night. Thanks. I appreciate it. You guys definitely know Toronto climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 These late winter system with a departing el Nino can be strong, so I wouldn't be surprised if more snow starting showing up on future runs. Sure this could turn out to be a dud, but climatologically speaking this is the time for big synoptic systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 12Z GFS solution looks pretty believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 12Z GFS solution looks pretty believable. Until 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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