Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 EURO starts the low in western KS. Low settled to northern TX at hour 36. Freezing line almost through WI. Frontogenesis band gaining steam to the west in Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Definitely a challenging forecast for the dvn office. I think for the QC we're going to have to depend on how things evolve on the back side of the departing low on Tue. The WAA wing precip looks to be mainly north of here tomorrow night and early Tue, and would be mostly rain along the I-80 corridor anyway. Some indications of a narrow band of heavy snow accumulations with that band up near the WI/IL border as it sort of stalls out and waits for the pivot. I could see areas in northeast IA/southern WI/and perhaps far northern IL getting dumped on with that. The GFS is pretty weak with the WAA wing precip area though, so it's something that's not written in stone yet. Definitely something to watch for those who live up that way. For down this way we'll be at the mercy of how the main snow band evolves, and how quickly it does. The GFS is definitely the most robust in quickly developing a nice band of snow on the northwest side of the storm, whereas the NAM and GEM take a little longer. Still too early to make a call here, but at this point it looks like whatever we see tomorrow night/early Tue will be rain/dry slot south of WAA wing. Then a quick rain to snow changeover on Tue with hopefully at least a few quick inches before the storm rockets northeast. Kind of in a similar situation as you around here. That placement of that band tomorrow night will be an important factor with some hints of it being just north. Thermal profiles do look a bit cooler out this way so I think whatever precip falls would be a mix with some sleet/freezing rain possible after possibly briefly starting as plain rain. Then the question is how far north the main system gets and how that will affect precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Healthy frontogenesis band from I-80 to extreme southern WI on this run. Low moving into southern MO at hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Thermal profiles do look a bit cooler out this way so I think whatever precip falls would be a mix with some sleet/freezing rain possible after possibly briefly starting as plain rain. If this pans out how significant would you expect the freezing rain to be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Low starts bombing out in southern IN and moves towards Dayton. Detroit, Cleveland, Toledo, and Toronto are all going to get blasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 If this pans out how significant would you expect the freezing rain to be? Probably fairly minor amounts...less than 2 tenths. The warm lead up raises some questions about road impacts but tonight does cool off a lot before warming up tomorrow in advance of the storm and of course it doesn't take much to cause issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Low starts bombing out in southern IN and moves towards Dayton. Detroit, Cleveland, Toledo, and Toronto are all going to get blasted. Would you say it's a tick north of the 0z run from last night? That's the impression I get but I'm just looking at freebies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Would you say it's a tick north of the 0z run from last night? That's the impression I get but I'm just looking at freebies. It is a bit NW of the 00z run based on the snowfall map. But overall, fairly similar. Still SE of the GFS / GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 as we feared the euro would be. really wanted to see mke on the southern fringe of waa snow/mix to maybe allow the system north more.. being on the fringe is not what we wanted to see. euro is normally not one to flip on a dime so maybe tonight's run will get a leg on board if nam and gfs don't flip back at 18z and 0z. big if Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 It is a bit NW of the 00z run based on the snowfall map. But overall, fairly similar. Still SE of the GFS / GGEM. That's actually pretty decent model agreement 2.5 days out. Especially compared to the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Would you say it's a tick north of the 0z run from last night? That's the impression I get but I'm just looking at freebies. Yeah, it cuts closer to Erie on this run. Cleveland gets wet snow for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 That's actually pretty decent model agreement 2.5 days out. Especially compared to the last storm. True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 whens the last time a storm track croaked toronto like the euro? pulling out all the geos tricks and optimism i can think of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I would guess DTX hoists watches for the bottom of their CWA. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Yeah, it cuts closer to Erie on this run. Cleveland gets wet snow for sure. 12zEURO_022816.png Sweet. I'd take half of that and be ecstatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The mean snow-liquid ratio would be >10:1 from YXU-YYZ-YOW if thermals end up similar to the 12z euro/ukie. That is why the eurowx snowmap has ~14" over TO on 1" of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 whens the last time a storm track croaked toronto like the euro? pulling out all the geos tricks and optimism i can think of. The track is further NW then last night. Toronto was on the western edge of the gray (12"). Maybe all the models can meet in the middle somewhere and put us on the backside of the main system snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 True. going to pop 60 over there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I would guess DTX hoists watches for the bottom of their CWA. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk They may give it until Monday morning to be certain. But it will be nice if there's no other direction to go but up with this system (as far as the potential snowfall amounts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 whens the last time a storm track croaked toronto like the euro? pulling out all the geos tricks and optimism i can think of. lol, not too often. That's for sure. Probably February 8, 2013 was the last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 going to pop 60 over there? Already did at DTW (posted it in the February thread). Lovin' it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The track is further NW then last night. Toronto was on the western edge of the gray (12"). Maybe all the models can meet in the middle somewhere and put us on the backside of the main system snow. That's probably best case scenario at this point with a very low confidence in that even up here.. get so sick of the we compromise crap though with the model camps 2 and 3 days out. I always knew it would be tough to get in on both parts but we hardly even get in on one with the euro Enjoy the 60 today and 50 tomorrow I guess like last week. That's fun right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 lol, not too often. That's for sure. Probably February 8, 2013 was the last. oh that's not too bad.. I was thinking it was possibly a longer drought. crap lol.. Good luck up there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 That's probably best case scenario at this point with a very low confidence in that even up here.. get so sick of the we compromise crap though with the model camps 2 and 3 days out. I always knew it would be tough to get in on both parts but we hardly even get in on one with the euro Enjoy the 60 today and 50 tomorrow I guess like last week. That's fun right I'm enjoying it. Have a few windows open. Wouldn't be surprised if the GFS and EURO meet in the middle on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 GEFS pretty divided. A number are weaker than the OP but a few try and take the sfc low to the southern tip of Lk MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 GEPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Can some explain the difference between the GEPS and the GEFS for me? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 betting man would have its money on the soouthern gefs camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 oh that's not too bad.. I was thinking it was possibly a longer drought. crap lol.. Good luck up there! Diamond in the rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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