blizzardof96 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 12z GFS has 1.25" QPF at YYZ and ~1.90" at YHM. That fgen band is very dynamic. Really tough p-type forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 12z GFS looks like a sleet storm for Detroit. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 12z GFS has 1.25" QPF at YYZ and ~1.90" at YHM. That fgen band is very dynamic. Really tough p-type forecast. gfs_pr6_slp_t850_toronto_12.png Another nailbiter. If the stronger solutions pan out, YYZ/DTX may be in for another rainer. Some suppression would be nice in this case, as I'm sure OH posters are hoping. How are the globals doing with current surface temperatures in this warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 hopefully geos retired that magnet and is doing work at church this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 12z GFS has 1.25" QPF at YYZ and ~1.90" at YHM. That fgen band is very dynamic. Really tough p-type forecast. gfs_pr6_slp_t850_toronto_12.png I'm guessing that better forcing helps keep us as more snow. The pivotalwx map shows 7.5" based on kuchera ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I'm guessing that better forcing helps keep us as more snow. The pivotalwx map shows 7.5" based on kuchera ratios. Looked over some sounding data. When the heaviest precip falls, the warmest layer is ~0c or a sliver below. Once rates let up a bit, it goes over to PL. It's the type of situation where it's tough to rely on sounding data that encompasses a 6hr period when the column may be changing within that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 GGEM has a nice storm. Colder too because it's a little further east than the NAM/GFS. CVG at 60 to almost ALB at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 12Z GFS is a killer cutoff, central Hillsdale County would get 13 inches and the southern part would get 4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 GGEM has a nice storm. Colder too because it's a little further east than the NAM/GFS. CVG at 60 to almost ALB at 72. Actually, it's not really that much further east than the NAM/GFS. Just a colder temp profile aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 12z gem snowfall. Beware of PL contamination across some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 12z GFS looks like a sleet storm for Detroit. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yep, extremely delicate thermals on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 UKIE's on board re: track. Just need to see the temp maps when they come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 12z gem snowfall. Beware of PL contamination across some areas. cmc_snow_acc_ne_14.png Seems to jibe with the collaboration p-type map. PL never gets further north than the north shore of Lk Erie. I remember when the GGEM showed a similar swath for the last storm so I'm a little incredulous right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 encouraging slight trend on gfs nam.. now will it stick around..could it even tick a little stronger. hah. gun to head id pronounce congratulations hoosier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Seems to jibe with the collaboration p-type map. PL never gets further north than the north shore of Lk Erie. I remember when the GGEM showed a similar swath for the last storm so I'm a little incredulous right now. Thankfully it has more support from the other models this time around. The threat of a further north track is concerning though. 12z suite thus far for TO GEM: 0.9” QPF. SN. GFS: 1.25” QPF. SN/PL mix. NAM: 0.6-0.7” QPF. SN/PL mix. UKIE: 0.6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Looks like we're back in business with a stronger storm, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Looks like we're back in business with a stronger storm, but it's going to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 12z GFS looks like it took a step toward the 0z Euro by developing a little more back side snow for most of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 but it's going to rain Well yeah, tonight it will. That front on Monday will settle down to near I-80. Bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Well yeah, tonight it will. That front on Monday will settle down to near I-80. Bank on it. Alek can cash your check then. 57 now.. pushing 50 tomorrow. and we up here are sweating another miss south like last week. good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Alek can cash your check then. 57 now.. pushing 50 tomorrow. and we up here are sweating another miss south like last week. good stuff We got the GFS on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 we do. now if only the euro starts feeling it i'd become a little more confident on biting.. I can't take being teased again only to be left alone to look at a pc screen for my pleasure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 we do. now if only the euro starts feeling it i'd become a little more confident on biting.. I can't take being teased again only to be left alone to look at a pc screen for my pleasure. Well the cold air timing will meet the frontogenesis band that develops. As usual the cold air over the lake will push out ahead of the rest of the front. 6pm Monday. 12km NAM is a hour or so later, and the GFS is an hour or so earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 such uniform temps west to east.. hopefully we can buckle that for an old euro solution to walk back in the picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Both the 12Z ARW and NMMB are showing a farther west/north, amped up and slower solution at 48 hours/12Z Tues than most of the other models. Both have the low center west of where the 12Z GFS puts it. I think it's a common bias of these models to be too amped up/north but it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Good consistency in tracks. I-70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Definitely a challenging forecast for the dvn office. I think for the QC we're going to have to depend on how things evolve on the back side of the departing low on Tue. The WAA wing precip looks to be mainly north of here tomorrow night and early Tue, and would be mostly rain along the I-80 corridor anyway. Some indications of a narrow band of heavy snow accumulations with that band up near the WI/IL border as it sort of stalls out and waits for the pivot. I could see areas in northeast IA/southern WI/and perhaps far northern IL getting dumped on with that. The GFS is pretty weak with the WAA wing precip area though, so it's something that's not written in stone yet. Definitely something to watch for those who live up that way. For down this way we'll be at the mercy of how the main snow band evolves, and how quickly it does. The GFS is definitely the most robust in quickly developing a nice band of snow on the northwest side of the storm, whereas the NAM and GEM take a little longer. Still too early to make a call here, but at this point it looks like whatever we see tomorrow night/early Tue will be rain/dry slot south of WAA wing. Then a quick rain to snow changeover on Tue with hopefully at least a few quick inches before the storm rockets northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 That shortwave was barely sampled at all - more importantly, the vort behind it is very poorly initialized by all guidance (too weak), including 12z coming in. That's telling me the backside jet is coming in stronger and will help this dig more, with the southern wave possibly trending faster and deeper in subsequent guidance. If correct, that suggests some of the negative tilt/beefed up runs from a few days ago may be closer to reality. Will be interesting to see 12z ensembles. Yeah, really need the 00z/12z Monday runs for better RAOB sampling to clear up some of the lingering differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Some indications of a narrow band of heavy snow accumulations with that band up near the WI/IL border as it sort of stalls out and waits for the pivot. Seen that before around here. February 6th, 2008 was one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 UKIE's on board re: track. Just need to see the temp maps when they come out. Looking good. Similar to the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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