cyclone77 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Looks like someone working at WeatherBELL tripped over a cord and killed the Euro, as there is zero data rolling in there at this point. Judging by the above posts, and seeing a few screen shots from Eurowx it looks pretty interesting for the eastern portion of the sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I wonder if one of those means only incorporates the partial set of members you see on sites like e-wall, while the other has the full 21 or 22 members suite. The one you posted looks very similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 That initial frontogenesis area of precipitation seems to have decent agreement at least in terms of placement. After that, who knows. Classic position just north of I-80. Goes from low 50s to mid 20s in 12 hours here late Monday. Pretty sure the eurowx snowfall maps are only 10:1. About half the snow in Chicago falls with temps below the high 20s. And from northern Ohio into the Toronto area a lot of that snow falls in the 20s. I bet you could take 15:1 ratios from that and fluff up a band pushing 2' in some locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 There's definitely a cluster of 00z GEFS members stronger/north of the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 There's definitely a cluster of 00z GEFS members stronger/north of the op run. Nice. Nothing much south of the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Anyone have a snow map for the hour 120 system? Unfortunately I don't have access to a map but on Wundermap it doesn't really seem to do much for this subforum as far as snowfall goes. It looks like the D.C. area would get hit pretty hard, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Anyone have a snow map for the hour 120 system? For Dayton, I believe the Euro has 0.25" QPF for the first, then 0.35" QPF for the second (hour 120) system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Things look good for you, Hoosier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Hmm. The 00z NAM has a swath of freezing rain in northern Indiana and northern Ohio. This is somewhat concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Things look good for you, Hoosier. Not on the 6z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I'm gon' need #18 to happen... :weenie: :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Both the 6z NAM and GFS trended much stronger with the s/w, although they still keep it neutral/positive tilt as it traverses the OV. Probably fortunate for that because the SN/mix line took a big jump north anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Looks like a rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 00Z and 06Z suites seem pretty decent for many in the sub forum. Not necessarily a big dog but a worthwhile snowfall for snow starved areas. Should be interesting to watch unfold. Shocking model agreement for a system unsampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 only way this is a rainer in chicago is if the wave coming onshore now fully and more quickly phases with that lobe of the polar vortex rotating down. literally the only guidance showing this is a handful of 06z GFS ensemble members. it may be rain at the onset late monday evening but will quickly go to either ice or snow. a pneumonia front coming down the lakeshore monday eve will ensure our temps get below freezing rather quickly. the main disagreement is how much warm air lingers above the sfc, with US guidance keeping that warm nose through the night while foreign guidance is colder and snowier. unfortunately both these waves are poorly sampled given their origin so i suspect we'll see continued disagreement until overnight runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 By 42, s/w looks stronger on the NAM, but the arctic front has settled a little further south out ahead of it compared to the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 By 42, s/w looks stronger on the NAM, but the arctic front has settled a little further south out ahead of it compared to the 6z run. It's going to be north / stronger / warmer without a doubt. By how much is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 In the six hour period between 0z-6z Wednesday, the 6z GFS has a band of 0.6-0.8" QPF along the 401 corridor from London through YYZ and over to Kingston, On. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 It's going to be north / stronger / warmer without a doubt. By how much is the question. Only one of those that's true through 54 is stronger...although I don't deny that the warmer/further north stuff could happen in later frames. Notice it's also trended a bit stronger/south with the arctic high over QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 NAM sort of looks like the EURO by 66, although warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Yeah, definitely warmer than the EURO. NE OH was the epicenter of the snow on the EURO, but the NAM has sleet taint as far north as YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 NAM sort of looks like the EURO by 66, although warmer. P-type is mainly PL before it goes over to SN at the end. 2m temps way too cold for rain with the given solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 P-type is mainly PL before it goes over to SN at the end. 2m temps way too cold for rain with the given solution. Checked the sounding. It looks like a very narrow wedge of like <+1.0c at 850. Could easily be snow despite the algorithm. Depending on the intensity. I'll take cease and desist order on the north trend now please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 RGEM looks faster than the NAM. Has its sfc low over IL at 48 while the NAM is still back over MO. Roughly same strength though. Seems like a decent accumulation from the f-gen forcing from ORD-DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Basically, the NAM has a narrow 6-12" swath from Geos to Boogieman. Detroit gets screwed over in the same way Toronto does (in addition to what looks to be disorganized forcing issues with a QPF minimum). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 GFS brings best forcing north of Chicago into WI Tuesday morning but the system itself well NW all of NE Illinois crushed Tuesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 12z GFS will be a pretty decent storm for someone. It digs the shortwave all of the way down into the Texas Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 BTW, the shortwave should have been partially sampled for the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Would really like to see some more consistency, but trends are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 12z GFS has 1.25" QPF at YYZ and ~1.90" at YHM. That fgen band is very dynamic. Really tough p-type forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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