Hoosier Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Some improvement from 12z, but the 12z NAM was about as bad as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Still pretty anemic with the NAM but a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 NAM is a mess. NAM is a mess. Common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 4km NAM looks more robust with that frontogenesis band. Yeah I guess it is better than the 12z, which did not show any snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 So...we have laid down the southern track if it's a weak system/cold frontal passage. My guess is if things strengthen, the look of the recent Euro runs will return with Southern WI and Central Lower MI getting hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 So...we have laid down the southern track if it's a weak system/cold frontal passage. My guess is if things strengthen, the look of the recent Euro runs will return with Southern WI and Central Lower MI getting hit. If we can get this system to start turning negative tilt by the Mississippi River, we'd be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I could see round one missing mostly to the north with mixing issues here, and round two missing off to the se. good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 4km NAM looks more robust with that frontogenesis band. Yeah I guess it is better than the 12z, which did not show any snow here. Jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 If we can get this system to start turning negative tilt by the Mississippi River, we'd be in business. I think that boat is already heading south and nearing cyclone down the mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 If we can get this system to start turning negative tilt by the Mississippi River, we'd be in business. I mentioned a week ago that the indices favored a more SE track than what was modeled and thus stated Detriot/Toronto would be more favored in this forum. I highly doubt an amped solution wins out, and wouldn't be surprised to see an even further E track. That high slides in on all models as the low ejects from the plains. I would almost completely toss an amped solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 The eastern ridge is not as strong with the next event as it was with this event. I would favor Detriot/Toronto locations with this one. I think a coastal transfer is more likely with a Miller B. A spread the wealth type system. but as already mentioned by Geos, it really is an awesome battlezone. It won't be boring, that's for sure. Storm after storm after storm, the only issue is enough cold air. Todays event: Next weeks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Jackpot. I think that boat is already heading south and nearing cyclone down the mississippi. Hopefully it stays docked. This first wave is something to watch. Seen these features perform well. I hope the SE bleeding stops BuffaloWeather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 GRR made it sound like they think the bleeding SE could continue, as they said they may have to lower snow chances/amounts if "trends continue". My pose for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Hope it rains. The salt is disgusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Hope it rains. The salt is disgusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Setup would still suggest some ice in the transition zone, though minor amounts barring a trend back toward more robust solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 i hope we get a spread the wealth with a transfer for the east coast. dem indices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 The energy is weaker(much) than sampled earlier on. Nothing more or less. It has not been sampled. The energy that will become this system is south/southwest of that Gulf of Alaska Low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Setup would still suggest some ice in the transition zone, though minor amounts barring a trend back toward more robust solution. Temps drop nicely on Monday evening so it comes down to timing and how much precip there is. Also notice a bit of a lake enhanced push of cold air into areas like se WI/ne IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 wish there was a better temp gradient for the storm to work/ride with if that makes any sense. so flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 GFS going in the wrong direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Temps drop nicely on Monday evening so it comes down to timing and how much precip there is. Also notice a bit of a lake enhanced push of cold air into areas like se WI/ne IL temps.gif You can bet that cold air won't waste any time moving down the lake. Snow starts breaking out at hour 60 on the GFS as the baroclinic zone settles south. That high is too fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 GFS going in the wrong direction You can say that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 GFS going in the wrong direction Never fear, we have 2 weenie cards to bust out...off hour run and not sampled by the RAOB network yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 NAM has the frontogenesis band as well. I agree it is coming north. Keep it moving north if what the 18z NAM/GFS show will be the outcome. I'd rather have plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 NAM looks a little better this run, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 NAM coming in a bit icy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 It definitely slowed down the system this run and is TRYING to develop into a more pronounced storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 NAM is a huge step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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