Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I think many of us at this point are just looking for everything that could go wrong with the way this winter has been. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 agree, ssc. But dang it gets hard to remain optimistic and not a sour puss anymore especially when it inevitably turns sour almost every event this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Why am I not surprised? It wouldn't surprise me in the least if this ended up as an eastern New York/northern new England/Maritimes special. There is a snow wall built around the GTA this year. We will likely finish up with the least snowiest winter on record. I know it's frustrating living in that city as a snow-lover. But take it to the complaint thread or our regional thread. Other people don't want to read this bittercasting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Cold air is nice the ratio's will be nice and high so basically what you see on the Euro you can double it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 agree, ssc. But dang it gets hard to remain optimistic and not a sour puss anymore especially when it inevitably turns sour almost every event this winter. I feel it in my gut too. Something's gonna fudge up. I just don't let it get to me anymore. Wx's gonna do what it's gonna do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Cold air is nice the ratio's will be nice and high so basically what you see on the Euro you can double it! Geos didn't introduce us to his twin sibling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I feel it in my gut too. Something's gonna fudge up. I just don't let it get to me anymore. Wx's gonna do what it's gonna do. Amen brother. Good luck to you all up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Geos didn't introduce us to his twin sibling HAHAHAHAHA nice to finally have an event here in SE Michigan without that mixing crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Geos didn't introduce us to his twin sibling Love the optimism AWMT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 We'd probably get more on the GEM model. GGEM has the lake enhancement wild card also nicely. Delta Ts would be pretty high. Looks like we are heading for a bit more than a nuisance system. Big enough system to remind us winter isn't over yet. Are you talking about on your side of the lake, or are winds shifting around? Geos didn't introduce us to his twin sibling lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 For those looking for a stronger storm, I think it's still a little too early to throw in the towel. Still about 36 hours until full sampling. You'd only have to slow down the main s/w a bit for this to turn into something bigger. +1 for optimism. Comparing today's 12z Euro from yesterday's huge 12z, run, there are obvious differences but you can see how it wouldn't take much to trend back toward something bigger...at least part of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 The EURO is NOT a carbon copy of the GFS. Carbon copy as in they both look like junk for Central and Western parts of the forum, yes. The track and strength of the low is identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Are you talking about on your side of the lake, or are winds shifting around? lol It flips over to your side for awhile. I'm roughly seeing Delta Ts up to 18°C, if you can say the lake is near 5°C right now. Temperature decreases with height so there wouldn't be any inversion to deal with. I'm not even sure eurowx maps have the correct ratio algorithm. It's suggesting 10:1 here with temps in the mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Love the optimism AWMT. I do not post much but love reading all the stuff you guys have to say!! But yes this looks good for our area Geos!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 +1 for optimism. Comparing today's 12z Euro from yesterday's huge 12z, run, there are obvious differences but you can see how it wouldn't take much to trend back toward something bigger...at least part of the way. lol...I never thought I'd live to see the day anything I'd write on this board would be considered optimistic. I'm actually a graduate of the ALEK school of aim so low you don't care weather forecasting. I think I've just taken the realistic view that you've mentioned in your 2nd paragraph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 It flips over to your side for awhile. I'm roughly seeing Delta Ts up to 18°C, if you can say the lake is near 5°C right now. Temperature decreases with height so there wouldn't be any inversion to deal with. I'm not even sure eurowx maps have the correct ratio algorithm. It's suggesting 10:1 here with temps in the mid 20s. True. With the lake not frozen, there is opportunity for lake effect snow if we can get cold enough air. Any wind though, and it will jump over the lakeshore. Unfrozen lake = more of a November type setup for lake effect snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 True. With the lake not frozen, there is opportunity for lake effect snow if we can get cold enough air. Any wind though, and it will jump over the lakeshore. Unfrozen lake = more of a November type setup for lake effect snow around here. 850 mb temps in the mid teens. At 700mb they are -15°- -17°C. So yeah this air mass is cold! Winds are strongest at the bottom of the lake/Michigan City. But we're only talking 20mph if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 A bit difficult to pin down at this point but there are some model signals for a decent frontogenesis band. Those can and do overperform sometimes so something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 850 mb temps in the mid teens. At 700mb they are -15°- -17°C. So yeah this air mass is cold! Winds are strongest at the bottom of the lake/Michigan City. But we're only talking 20mph if that. Those are good temps for lake instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I noticed the snow along the front on Monday evening. Breaks snow out near 43°N and then slides south and east. That could be interesting. Those frontogenesis bands can be fun, if you're in the right corridor. Seen plenty of those events that over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 No, little more than that. The lake influence might be more exciting than the synoptic snow. LMAO! Wow. Talk about deflating expectations in a short time. Maybe next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 LMAO! Wow. Talk about deflating expectations in a short time. Maybe next year. Lol. You need the GGEM to work out for you. ~4". Didn't think we'd be a this point today. It's like the non-EURO model trend north and with more snow and the EURO turns around and goes back the other way. Would be nice to get to the seasonal average by mid-March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I know this is a little bit off topic, but I just discovered this NCAR short-range ensemble product. It seems to be a different system from the SREF (run by NCEP). Goes to 48 hours. http://ensemble.ucar.edu/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I know this is a little bit off topic, but I just discovered this NCAR short-range ensemble product. It seems to be a different system from the SREF (run by NCEP). Goes to 48 hours. http://ensemble.ucar.edu/ It's a nice product to look at, unfortunately only runs at 00z. I know of a few forecasters at my office that use it fairly routinely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I know this is a little bit off topic, but I just discovered this NCAR short-range ensemble product. It seems to be a different system from the SREF (run by NCEP). Goes to 48 hours. http://ensemble.ucar.edu/ Do they show snow for us? Otherwise, I'm not even looking......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 For those of you disappointed with the storm on the op Euro run today, maybe day 10 will occur as shown and we can all just forget about snow for awhile. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 18z NAM should come north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 For those of you disappointed with the storm on the op Euro run today, maybe day 10 will occur as shown and we can all just forget about snow for awhile. lol Good bye to snow, hello to wedges. Sorry for OT, needed to say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 NAM has the frontogenesis band as well. I agree it is coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 NAM is a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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