Hoosier Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 NOGAPS is even deeper and further north than the EURO. Kind of goes against the grain of that model's bias. Maybe that's something of a sign. Not sure. That seemed like it used to be a good red flag back in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 UK looks like a good hit for many...not a huge storm, but snow nonetheless. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNMPR&mode=latest&map=na〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Also of interest is the Ukie showing that second low down in Oklahoma. That could make quite the phase off to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Sure didn't take this too long to transform into hot garbage... Would definitely like to see a trend back towards a more phased/stronger system on the runs later today, otherwise this one may be punt worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Also of interest is the Ukie showing that second low down in Oklahoma. That could make quite the phase off to the east. It's like the energy splits as it gets swung off the backside of the trough. EURO so far is a carbon copy of yesterday at this time. Out to 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 This morning's JMA run was definitely more to the north and west with the low as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 My fingers are crossed for this storm, but the trends haven't been good for us this season. I'd just like to see at least one 6" snowfall in Toronto before the season is out. Have we even had a 4" snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 EURO at 72 hours is still positively tilted in IL. Weaker system further west, strong probably east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Sure didn't take this too long to transform into hot garbage... Would definitely like to see a trend back towards a more phased/stronger system on the runs later today, otherwise this one may be punt worthy. Still looks like a pretty good chance for a 6-10" type system at least. Funny that will seem like a disappointment considering the 2+ foot solutions on previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 12Z Euro looks just like the 12Z GFS. Surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Yeah was there really any doubt the euro would go the other way slowly in increments.. Pretty much totally numb to repeated failures over the past several winters so no big deal anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Looking like a moderate snow event from southern WI across NE IL and southern MI. NE winds off the lake, might help boost up totals in this area. The air coming in is pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Euro is essentially a carbon copy of the GFS. Showdown over? Can't complain.. drops ~7" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Still looks like a pretty good chance for a 6-10" type system at least. Funny that will seem like a disappointment considering the 2+ foot solutions on previous run.Well, it is a disappointment...and I'm not just speaking IMBY. When the Euro (supposedly one of the best medium range models) shows a 20"+ swath on a few runs and then loses it, you can't help but criticize the models. It's not like it's 7-10 days out; it's only 3 days. It would be easy to chalk it up to simply another crap event in this horrendous winter...but objectively speaking, it's a bad performance by the models. Not sure why this is happening, but what else can you say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Looking like a moderate snow event from southern WI across NE IL and southern MI. NE winds off the lake, might help boost up totals in this area. The air coming in is pretty cold. Yeah I could envision a bit of enhancement off the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Looking like a moderate snow event from southern WI across NE IL and southern MI. NE winds off the lake, might help boost up totals in this area. The air coming in is pretty cold. Sigh. Another 1 to 2 inch "event" here while Kalamazoo to dmcland gets blasted, I take it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Sigh. Another 1 to 2 inch "event" here while Kalamazoo to dmcland gets blasted, I take it? No, little more than that. The lake influence might be more exciting than the synoptic snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Have we even had a 4" snowfall? We have not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 models i think have been OK with the super nino being dealt to them. lots of moving parts and timing issues along with little cold air i imagine is not easy for them so i take each run with a glass half full approach and try and figure out what can and is likely to muck things up.. lots of mucking and mudding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 ^Snow map surprisingly dull here...would've expected better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Euro is essentially a carbon copy of the GFS. Showdown over? Can't complain.. drops ~7" here. Oh nice. Just going by the ewall freebie maps it looked junky and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 No, little more than that. The lake influence might be more exciting than the synoptic snow. Yeah i love snow but who really want's that scraps. bring it out in one or be done. I'm so over nuisance barely plowable events that offer nothing more than to really only dirty your vehicle up again with over usage of salt TYVM for the maps and details though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 For those looking for a stronger storm, I think it's still a little too early to throw in the towel. Still about 36 hours until full sampling. You'd only have to slow down the main s/w a bit for this to turn into something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 haven't spent much time on looking at this one, (pretty much gave up on the i-70 corridor for this winter)...but checking back in and seeing the models with a progressive solution kind of makes sense. I was trying to figure out a few days ago how a storm goes neg tilt and cuts for the eastern lakes with another strong system on it's tail. Now the models are starting to show it's the caboose that might need watching for portions of the sub...either nw of us or further east of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Oh nice. Just going by the ewall freebie maps it looked junky and south. GFS was 7" but looks like Euro was 4", less juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Yeah i love snow but who really want's that scraps. bring it out in one or be done. I'm so over nuisance barely plowable events that offer nothing more than to really only dirty your vehicle up again TYVM for the maps and details though! I hear you on that one. Winds come off the lake for about 18 hours about and the lake enhanced wild card is there. EURO doesn't handle small scale details like that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 For those looking for a stronger storm, I think it's still a little too early to throw in the towel. Still about 36 hours until full sampling. You'd only have to slow down the main s/w a bit for this to turn into something bigger. Agreed. This thing could model stronger and alter its track. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 985 mb low smoke southern Wisconsin. After the previous storm, which had an Apps runner 3-4 days out and ended up way further northwest, anything can happen in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 The EURO is NOT a carbon copy of the GFS. Carbon copy as in they both look like junk for Central and Western parts of the forum, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 For those looking for a stronger storm, I think it's still a little too early to throw in the towel. Still about 36 hours until full sampling. You'd only have to slow down the main s/w a bit for this to turn into something bigger. I think many of us at this point are just looking for everything that could go wrong with the way this winter has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 The EURO is NOT a carbon copy of the GFS. Carbon copy as in they both look like junk for Central and Western parts of the forum, yes. We'd probably get more on the GEM model. GGEM has the lake enhancement wild card also nicely. Delta Ts would be pretty high. Looks like we are heading for a bit more than a nuisance system. Big enough system to remind us winter isn't over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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