TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Bahaha..never mind. I failed. It still looks pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Zzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 For the Detroit metro region, this system looks like a repeat of this past Wednesday. Suicide cutoff for the city south. DTX mentioned this in their recent AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 For the Detroit metro region, this system looks like a repeat of this past Wednesday. Suicide cutoff for the city south. DTX mentioned this in their recent AFD.Still had 4.5" here and even Toledo had 3". A true suicide cutoff would be yesterday's para euro, but really it doesn't matter. Some models not named euro take all snow SOUTH of us. The key to dtx discussion is that raob sampling not til 12z monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 6z GEFs have lost most of the amped members. Would love the EURO to verify but it's kind of on its own island right now. NOGAPS is even deeper and further north than the EURO. Kind of goes against the grain of that model's bias. Maybe that's something of a sign. Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 For the Detroit metro region, this system looks like a repeat of this past Wednesday. Suicide cutoff for the city south. DTX mentioned this in their recent AFD. Yet to see a front end thumping from a southern jet entrained system without marginal thermals. Its a pattern which has been undeniable since November and will die with the winter season. By looking at the models this system is behaving different than the others as of late by its twitchiness from run to run. Until sampling the dream is alive.... the reality of the 33°F and rain is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Still had 4.5" here and even Toledo had 3". A true suicide cutoff would be yesterday's para euro, but really it doesn't matter. Some models not named euro take all snow SOUTH of us. The key to dtx discussion is that raob sampling not til 12z monday. North of M59 will possibly get their 3rd 12" snowstorm of the season. Not only is that impressive it's probably historic. Since 2005 areas near PTK have logged 7 12"+ storms. Possibly making it 8 this coming Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 12z NAM's probably going to be hot garbage again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 12z NAM isn't even worth posting. Just horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 12z NAM isn't even worth posting. Just horrible. You can see the problem around 48. At least a piece of that lobe of energy rotating around the PV has to phase with the southern s/w. NAM and GFS scoot it so fast to the east it doesn't have a chance to do that, leaving the main s/w to shear off to the SE in the confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 well at least the writing is on all the wall early for this one.. better than being taking for a another ride like the last storm and it crashing last minute like on chicago. We wish the eastern forum well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 geos combing the yard for twigs is taking precedence over posting why we have hope yet maps. not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Actually, just looking at what the EURO does at H5, it's not so much that initial PV lobe as much as the one rotating around it between 78-90. On the EURO the initial lobe scoots off to the east even faster allowing heights to rise downstream a bit. This allows the main s/w to slow and dig and wait to phase with that second lobe. On the NAM, the main s/w is too fast and that second piece of PV energy is too slow. Timing is everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 RGEM at 48 has a much stronger looking s/w over Montana compared to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Actually, just looking at what the EURO does at H5, it's not so much that initial PV lobe as much as the one rotating around it between 78-90. On the EURO the initial lobe scoots off to the east even faster allowing heights to rise downstream a bit. This allows the main s/w to slow and dig and wait to phase with that second lobe. On the NAM, the main s/w is too fast and that second piece of PV energy is too slow. Timing is everything. ATM we are in a position where the euro/EPS have been adjusting track quite a bit from run to run. Because of the timing difficulties and ENS spread it is tough to tell if the further north track is correct. At the same time, once the EC OP/EPS begin to lock in on a solution(may happen soon), the solution should be given a lot of credence. This suite is the cream of the crop in terms of medium range performance and that has only been exemplified further over the last few weeks IMO. The majority of the euro ensembles agree on a track somewhere through the lower lakes. The swath will be narrow as you mentioned which only makes it more complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 ATM we are in a position where the euro/EPS have been adjusting track quite a bit from run to run. Because of the timing difficulties and ENS spread it is tough to tell if the further north track is correct. At the same time, once the EC OP/EPS begin to lock in on a solution(may happen soon), the solution should be given a lot of credence. This suite is the cream of the crop in terms of medium range performance and that has only been exemplified further over the last few weeks IMO. The majority of the euro ensembles agree on a track somewhere through the lower lakes. The swath will be narrow as you mentioned which only makes it more complicated. looks like the 12z GFS is at least going to nudge north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 looks like the 12z GFS is at least going to nudge north. It is. The leading s/w looks more pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 B/c the leading s/w is stronger the energy cannot focus/cut off as easily across the TN valley. Instead you get two pieces at H5 with a sfc wave riding NE. Downstream height rises are stronger and the low is more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 S On Zoom FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 S On Zoom FWIW gfs_pr6_slp_t850_toronto_15.png gfs_pr6_slp_t850_toronto_16.png BUF looks like the winner attm...but we have a bit of wiggle room for a northward adjustment. I got a feeling a more amped solution like the EURO ends up being correct...question is whether we end up fending off mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Board is burnt out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 BUF looks like the winner attm...but we have a bit of wiggle room for a northward adjustment. I got a feeling a more amped solution like the EURO ends up being correct...question is whether we end up fending off mixing. The NWS offices seem to think that too, based off of many of them discussing mixing issues over a miss to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 What Baum said Board is burnt out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 GGEM making a comeback nice hit for Hoosier !!!!http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GGEM&p=accsnow&rh=2016022712&fh=84&r=mw&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 GEM making a comeback nice hit for Hoosier !!!! http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GGEM&p=accsnow&rh=2016022712&fh=84&r=mw&dpdt= Making a comeback? The 00Z looked much better for those of us in the snow-starved zone. Unless you are just referring to storm strength? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Making a comeback? The 00Z looked much better for those of us in the snow-starved zone. Unless you are just referring to storm strength? was referring to areas south of you on the 0z run N IL and NW IN were totally shutout. But you do have a point the better snows moved south on the 12z run. Would love to see a more Euro type run\. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 12z GEFS look better than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 My fingers are crossed for this storm, but the trends haven't been good for us this season. I'd just like to see at least one 6" snowfall in Toronto before the season is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Things are getting there on the GFS and GGEM, imo. We need the western lobe of the Hudson Bay low to be further west, that will help the system go negative tilt sooner. GGEM. GFS Hoosier would get nailed again on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 geos combing the yard for twigs is taking precedence over posting why we have hope yet maps. not good. Haven't even touched that yet. Was just up too late. Another thing that would help if the SE ridge was a touch stronger, it would force the system to slow down and amp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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