IllinoisWedges Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 The "negativity" just ruined my excitement for this upcoming storm.. Good to see the GFS come a bit N and stop the bleeding. Hopefully we can continue this trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 i don't think there is much negativity. Just we're all, and understandably so, a little gun shy to the pull the trigger to invest fully and the gfs pulling the rug out on some is probably a bit unnerving to. A lot has to go right and a lot can go wrong when we analyze all the computer runs so far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 GGEM looks a little more organized than its 12z run. 1008 near IKK at 84 deepening to a 1003 near YNG by 96. lol, it looks like it's going to get friskier with that D6-7 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Welcome to AMWX NWLinnCounty! We need the wave to be neutral tilt in the plains like the EURO has/had. We still have time for the GFS to jump on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Southern WI and central MI get an advisory event on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Southern WI and central MI get an advisory event on the GGEM. Please please please let this be our storm...set up your Maglev train tracks and send those winter storms on our way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 hopefully this event is a euro like one like its showing now somewhere atleast.. I don't think anybody wants to really see a strung out piece of garbage. We are all here for our back yard first Id have to imagine, but we're also here for the meteorology and it's extremes for sure even if it does miss our backyards all winter when the better ones happen lol.. being bitter or jealous does nobody any good in this addiction. we win some and lose a lot more for sure so it's best to buck up and except them early and don't let it eat at you because it just wears off like a stinky cologne on everybody around you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Storm goes negative tilt a little late for most of us. Western NY, southern ON do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 UKIE may be further south than the 12z run. Didn't compare, but regardless, it's no EURO solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 oh thats a nice map for ssc. don't see a track like that too often huh lol. probably as good of chance of anytime for one like that. I could envision a late bloomer. that just sounds a little weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I'd rather have the Euro on my side compared to any other model at this range, so I'm not too discouraged with some of these runs by some of the other models. Not saying the Euro is perfect by any means, but I give it a little more weight in this time period. I'm guessing that even these lame runs by the GFS and GEM aren't too far off from a much better scenario based on the fact that they had previously shown better outcomes. I would imagine the GEFS will have some decent members mixed in along with some turds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 apps a popular destination.. call me a little skeptical Nice post cyclone. You just have to believe the euro almost has to go back towards the majority some and maybe they meet in middle or maybe? I have no clue and only having one model on your side gives you big pause no matter the rep the euro has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Wouldn't be surprised if this ends up becoming less impressive in the cold sector like a lot of storms this winter. I favor the Euro more track-wise given its ensembles are backing it up at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 GEFS looks better than op run. Lots of members stronger and further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 The second piece of energy on the 4th looks like it has more potential than the piece on the 2nd but with the issue the models are having I don't know how the second piece will be sampled accurately until the first wave is sorted out first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I don't think we're far off from good solutions all around. I think a trend back to a more favorable solution is starting. Northeastern quadrant of subforum does pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Wouldn't be surprised if this ends up becoming less impressive in the cold sector like a lot of storms this winter. I favor the Euro more track-wise given its ensembles are backing it up at this point. so you're saying it might or might not snow storm here lol. id have to agree. i have zero feel for this one.. my emotions on it are all over the board.. i feel scared missing in every direction lol. I could see a sloppy front end hit with a miss to the south if there is two parts. lol. I should go to bed.. at minimum shut up and let the pro's discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I don't really know what'll happen out here. As it currently stands I think I'll be too far west to get in on the higher totals(however "high" they end up). But the runs yesterday were very favorable around here. It'll be a pretty close call I think as the storm will just be getting it's act together as it passes to the south of me. Edit: I think it'll be interesting to see if the euro matches with the massive totals it set at 12z. I think it'll tone them down a bit, but I'm far from an expert. I think it'll show 8-12 in its heaviest band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Hopefully Roger Smith will chime in over the next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Hopefully Roger Smith will predict flurries. FYP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 apps a popular destination.. call me a little skeptical Nice post cyclone. You just have to believe the euro almost has to go back towards the majority some and maybe they meet in middle or maybe? I have no clue and only having one model on your side gives you big pause no matter the rep the euro has. There actually isn't really a majority here. The Euro was very consistent with this week's system and did pretty well. It seems more like the other models are moving in its direction...Just obviously much less intense. Wouldn't be surprised if this ends up becoming less impressive in the cold sector like a lot of storms this winter. I favor the Euro more track-wise given its ensembles are backing it up at this point. I thought this exact same thing when looking at the NAM. It shows a lot of warmth and rain. Any system this winter that has gone on the path that would be good for southern Wisconsin and Central Lower Michigan has ended up not having any cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 banking on being in the sweet spot pivot.. makes it even tougher this far back i think unless the euro holds but that's a long time. but I think we want to play with fire and be right on that fine line that prob won't be very fat but could have a nice thumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I'd rather have the Euro on my side compared to any other model at this range, so I'm not too discouraged with some of these runs by some of the other models. Not saying the Euro is perfect by any means, but I give it a little more weight in this time period. I'm guessing that even these lame runs by the GFS and GEM aren't too far off from a much better scenario based on the fact that they had previously shown better outcomes. I would imagine the GEFS will have some decent members mixed in along with some turds. I'm particularly interested in tonight's run. If it comes in big with a second consecutive buck the consensus run then it will add a little confidence even with the others not looking so hot...especially if its ensembles go along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I'm particularly interested in tonight's run. If it comes in big with a second consecutive buck the consensus run then it will add a little confidence even with the others not looking so hot...especially if its ensembles go along. Yep, no doubt. Especially if the EPS and parallel run continue to look favorable like you say. I wouldn't be surprised to see the new op Euro look a little mundane compared to that zealous 12z, but as long as it continues to show a respectable storm it will still be encouraging. If it and the parallel continue to show a strong solution than I'd definitely start to feel pretty comfortable with the idea of a stronger solution winning out compared to that half-assed crap the GEM/GFS have spit out at times lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I'm particularly interested in tonight's run. If it comes in big with a second consecutive buck the consensus run then it will add a little confidence even with the others not looking so hot...especially if its ensembles go along. you're in a nice spot for the euro to come south some and other models to meet it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 you're in a nice spot for the euro to come south some and other models to meet it there. I suppose. Honestly I'm a little more concerned about this one reverting toward bringing precip type concerns here than missing south. This is almost like bonus territory for me given the storm the other day. If it goes too far north, can't really complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I suppose. Honestly I'm a little more concerned about this one reverting toward bringing precip type concerns here than missing south. This is almost like bonus territory for me given the storm the other day. If it goes too far north, can't really complain. I hear you and feel the same away about precip type issues over suppression.. but every time i fear missing north the less exciting solution works out se the majority of the time of late. I think youre in a great boom or bust spot as any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Surface low ejects out over OK panhandle at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 High is much further south on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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