mimillman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Chicago pastejob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 26, 2016 Author Share Posted February 26, 2016 The 6hr QPF plot when the defo band is over northern IL is probably the most impressive I can remember for here. Maybe outside of GHD I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Chicago pastejob Initially yes, but with increasing ratios and lake enhanced snow as the low pulls a bit more east. Looks like a good scenarios for a backside LES plume along the western shoreline for a time - a lot like GHD 1.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 500 mb Low is able to dig and close off before the Hudson Bay Low can tear it apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Geos check your PMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 JMA (lol) is Euro like but a bit farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Really incredible run of the Euro. Instead of the northern stream overpowering everything like on the rest of the 12z guidance, the northern energy phases in with the primary/southern wave. There's also an excellent coupled upper level jet streak pattern. You can see the potential with the jet streaks on the GFS despite the completely different solution at the midlevels and surface. On public desk at LOT and we're going continuity in the extended grids given the huge discrepancy in the guidance. Obvious tendency is to want to trust the better continuity of the Euro but would like to see what 12z EPS shows as well. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Anyone know why there's such a huge difference between where snow falls/accumulates on EuroWx vs WxBell? Look at how different they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Weatherbell is fixed 10:1 ratios. The map you posted should normally be a better indicator than WxBell in a given setup as it also seems like it tries to account for mixed precip. Edit: though in a windy storm such as this would be, ratios would be affected... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Anyone know why there's such a huge difference between where snow falls/accumulates on EuroWx vs WxBell? Look at how different they are. Down by Peoria it is overdone. This setup would have mixed precip with the low level NE flow. ... Now can we just get another model on board?... --- Fuel for lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Anyone know why there's such a huge difference between where snow falls/accumulates on EuroWx vs WxBell? Look at how different they are. Can you post a larger map that shows the eastern regions. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Anyone know why there's such a huge difference between where snow falls/accumulates on EuroWx vs WxBell? Look at how different they are. GFS and Euro have different tracks but both give me a least 5" if Euro has ratios correct. Weird win win situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Would be nice for the euro to nail one (this one) this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 The 6hr QPF plot when the defo band is over northern IL is probably the most impressive I can remember for here. Maybe outside of GHD I Epic run for us. Would like to see the other guidance trend back towards the euro, but definitely trying to temper my slowly building excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Can you post a larger map that shows the eastern regions. Thanks Yeah... :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Yeah... :/ Don't think it matters. From what I saw from wundermap, the Wxbell map is more consonant with the EURO's precip. placement and thermals. edit: the EUROwx map's pretty good too. I thought it would be too bullish with the southern extent of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 My bad. Was eating lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Very similar track to the storm this week. Would be wild if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 12z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 12z ECMWF ensemble mean tracks from C IL to N NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 18z NAM looks like it would be a series of weaker waves. Last one coming out of the southern Plains might be able to do something. Of course that's a long ways away. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016022618/namconus_ref_frzn_us_28.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 This is so this past Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 18z NAM looks like it would be a series of weaker waves. Last one coming out of KS might be able to do something. Of course that's a long ways away. At the end it has a low in TX. Looks like a possible GFS type solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Would like to know what this ILN forecaster was looking at when making the new long range part of the AFD. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...STORM SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THELONG TERM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.WINDS QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FORTEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.A SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY WITHPRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFFON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEMAND THE GFS HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE ECMWF INCREASINGCONFIDENCE. DUE TO THIS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTUESDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. WINDSWILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 30MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME RECOVERING ON WEDNESDAY WITHRESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. THEREFORE WENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONWEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE 30S.HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELSDIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME HOWEVER CONTINUED TO GO CLOSE TO THE ECMWFFOR THIS PACKAGE. WITH THIS SOLUTION AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILLMOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADINGTHE AREA THURSDAY AND MOVING OUT ON FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I wonder what run of the GFS they were looking at^. CPC hazards outlook says it's a go still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 GFS High looks a bit faster to come down. Going to crush the system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I wonder what run of the GFS they were looking at^. CPC hazards outlook says it's a go still... Interestingly though, the heavy rain is missing from the last update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I'm punting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 12z EPS eps_slp_lows_east_18.png eps_slp_lows_east_20-1.png Yep nothing to see here just another low tracking over our heads. This winter is something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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