snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 On 2/26/2016 at 11:37 PM, Stebo said: Parallel Euro low track went Springfield to St Louis to Fort Wayne to Toledo to just north of Toronto. Best snows are from from Peoria to Chicago to Grand Rapids to the Thumb and into cottage country up near North Bay. Thanks. Not south at all. If anything a touch north of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 On 2/26/2016 at 11:47 PM, snowcaine said: This is a fun one to watch. Even if it doesn't end up panning out for mby, it looks like it could be one nice storm for somebody. I also secretly enjoy (weather) model showdowns... ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I am pretty stoked to see an active pattern, anything is better then 15 and dry as a bone. Obvious the ECM and GFS are going at it (as usual) shoudl be another good one to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 On 2/26/2016 at 11:54 PM, snowcaine said: With the AO forecast to veer negative, I would suppose the latter with Arctic air descending to lower latitudes. I would usually expect to see the high nearby intensify as cold air advection digs the upper trough, amplifying the ridge, but both solutions are viable, albeit unusual. I think a compromise between the two current solutions is probably fair, with this very grey area resulting from intermittent sampling. Thanks. Just going to sit back and watch this evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Sounds like Alek took a "vacation" so to speak. Don't blame him, he was looking pretty good to get something decent on Tuesday. I would pull for the heaviest amounts to lay down from the Quad Cities to Chicago proper. There is definitely some areas that have been skirted by heavy amounts this winter. Of course mother nature has the final say so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 mke tooo.. tyvm for your positive thoughts to, geos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Orientation of the main s/w on the 0z NAM at 72 similar to the 18z GFS at 78 but the entire heights field looks shifted northerly by a good 100+ miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 SREF mean H5 heights at 87...(FWIW, nothing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 On 2/27/2016 at 2:39 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Orientation of the main s/w on the 0z NAM at 72 similar to the 18z GFS at 78 but the entire heights field looks shifted northerly by a good 100+ miles. Looks like the NAM actually has a decent storm brewing. 1004mb in NE OK moving NE. Again, 84 hour NAM, soo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 0Z NAM. I imagine it would continue ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 On 2/27/2016 at 2:46 AM, IllinoisWedges said: Looks like the NAM actually has a decent storm brewing. 1004mb in NE OK moving NE. Again, 84 hour NAM, soo. Definitely better than the GFS but probably not as potent as the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 12Z EURO valid for same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 nam has the look of maybe being able to gain some speed NE - even scares me of taint maybe - but i sure don't know much - but if the euro wasn't much of a mix factor i doubt the nam is either for snow band area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 NAM is more promising looking than the GFS, that's for sure. Needs to wind up like the EURO. Cold air is inbound at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 battle of the se ridge and h to the n or kinda sorta not..shrugs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Something like the NAM is what NW OH needs to have a chance at good snow. Comes in weaker than the EURO and amplifies further East. An ENE track from the current low position would be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 nam would scare me if i was in OHIO.. it scares me some in wi.. but again what do i know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 0z GFS coming back north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 On 2/26/2016 at 11:42 PM, cyclone77 said: Yeah it's fairly similar, noise level changes really. I guess it's a pretty good sign it's in decent agreement with the op. If I were to pick one neg with this system, is it's looking like a relatively narrow corridor of heavy snows. Would feel a little more at ease if we were dealing with a wider swath, but it is what it is. That seems to be the trend as of late.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 GFS trying to bring sexy back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 GFS is back a bit north and low tracks just south of STL down the Ohio River and up to southern PA. Still relatively weak compared to what was shown this time yesterday. Heaviest band is 3-5" along the MI-OH border region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I see a weak low pressure on the KY/IN border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 On 2/27/2016 at 4:06 AM, NWLinnCountyIA said: GFS is back a bit north and low tracks just south of STL down the Ohio River and up to southern PA. Still relatively weak compared to what was shown this time yesterday. Heaviest band is 3-5" along the MI-OH border region. Welcome to the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 On 2/27/2016 at 4:07 AM, RyanDe680 said: I see a weak low pressure on the KY/IN border? Yep the GFS is weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 On 2/27/2016 at 4:06 AM, NWLinnCountyIA said: GFS is back a bit north and low tracks just south of STL down the Ohio River and up to southern PA. Still relatively weak compared to what was shown this time yesterday. Heaviest band is 3-5" along the MI-OH border region. To be honest, I'm not too excited about this storm. It's almost spring and I've thrown the towel on the remainder of this winter. Anyways, welcome to the board. Glad that there's another member in my county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 It stopped the bleeding and it's a step back in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Interestingly, the GFS has the high pressure at the Canadian boarder further north than the Euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 On 2/27/2016 at 4:15 AM, Thundersnow12 said: It stopped the bleeding and it's a step back in the right direction This^ It's not as disconnected from the HB trough on this run. Need the negative tilt once it gets into MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 This could very well end up becoming a dud, but I'll hold out 2 more days then call if ALL models still show a dud. Until then I have hope for a decent storm. Not 20" but someone might walk away with 8" the way things look right now. Thanks everyone for the welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 apps crawler.. yeah I doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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