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Spring severe weather chatter


Ian

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  

627 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  

NORTHERN CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...  

SOUTHWESTERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...  

SOUTHEASTERN FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  

SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  

THE SOUTHEASTERN CITY OF ALEXANDRIA IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  

 

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT  

 

* AT 626 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER LORTON...OR  

NEAR FORT BELVOIR...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  

 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  

 

IMPACT...EXPECT HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE TO  

ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES.  

 

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  

NORTHERN CHARLES...SOUTHWESTERN PRINCE GEORGES...SOUTHEASTERN  

FAIRFAX...AND SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES AND THE  

SOUTHEASTERN CITY OF ALEXANDRIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:  

WEST SPRINGFIELD...POTOMAC HEIGHTS...OCCOQUAN...CHELTENHAM...MOUNT  

VERNON...BRANDYWINE...TANTALLON...NORTHWOOD...CLIFTON AND JEFFERSON  

MANOR.  

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  

640 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016  

 

MDC017-033-VAC059-153-510-022315-  

/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-160502T2315Z/  

CHARLES MD-PRINCE GEORGES MD-FAIRFAX VA-PRINCE WILLIAM VA-  

CITY OF ALEXANDRIA VA-  

640 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016  

 

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT  

FOR NORTHERN CHARLES...SOUTHWESTERN PRINCE GEORGES...SOUTHEASTERN  

FAIRFAX...AND SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES AND THE  

SOUTHEASTERN CITY OF ALEXANDRIA...  

 

AT 638 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER LORTON...OR NEAR  

WOODBRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  

 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED TWO INCH HAIL IN  

INDEPENDENT HILL AT 6:24 PM.  

 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL  

DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND  

DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.  

 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  

NORTHERN CHARLES...SOUTHWESTERN PRINCE GEORGES...SOUTHEASTERN  

FAIRFAX...AND SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES AND THE  

SOUTHEASTERN CITY OF ALEXANDRIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:  

WEST SPRINGFIELD...POTOMAC HEIGHTS...OCCOQUAN...CHELTENHAM...MOUNT  

VERNON...BRANDYWINE...TANTALLON...NORTHWOOD...JEFFERSON MANOR AND  

POMFRET.  

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It looks like its pulsed better and worse. It's not the southern cell for sure. It ain't dropping baseballs :P

 

Yeah looks like it's intensifying as it gets distance from the southern cell. We'll see if it intensifies further. 

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0535  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  

0534 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2016  

 

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SERN VA NWD INTO THE D.C. AREA  

 

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138...139...  

 

VALID 022234Z - 022330Z  

 

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH  

138...139...CONTINUES.  

 

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS /50-65 MPH  

WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS S-CNTRL VA NEWD TO THE  

CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY.  

 

DISCUSSION...RECENT SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A THETA-E  

AXIS EXTENDING FROM NERN NC NWD TO THE POTOMAC RIVER VALLEY. RADAR  

IMAGERY AROUND 2230Z SHOWS MULTIPLE STRONG TO SEVERE CLUSTERS OF  

STORMS FROM NEAR THE GREATER D.C. AREA SWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE VA  

NEAR THE I-81 AND I-95 CORRIDORS AND A CLUSTER PROPAGATING NWD ON  

OUTFLOW INTO S-CNTRL VA. STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT IN AREA  

VWP DATA SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR THE LARGEST HAIL WILL OCCUR  

GENERALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF VA /50-KT VS. 35-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR/  

WHERE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST. NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT  

ALGORITHM AND MRMS MESH DATA SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL SIZE  

WITH THE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT NEAR D.C. MAY BE NEAR 2 INCHES IN  

DIAMETER. FARTHER S...LESS-ORGANIZED STORMS /MULTICELLS/ WILL POSE  

A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUST THREAT AS THE STORM CLUSTER MOVE  

GENERALLY IN A ENEWD DIRECTION DURING THE EARLY TO MID-EVENING  

HOURS.  

 

..SMITH.. 05/02/2016  

   

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  

 

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  

657 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

NORTH CENTRAL CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...  

 

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT  

 

* AT 656 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  

WAS LOCATED NEAR LA PLATA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  

 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  

 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  

SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  

DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  

DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  

 

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  

SAINT CHARLES AROUND 705 PM EDT.  

WALDORF AROUND 710 PM EDT.  

LA PLATA AROUND 715 PM EDT.  

 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE PORT  

TOBACCO VILLAGE...BEL ALTON...PORT TOBACCO...WHITE PLAINS...POMFRET AND  

BRYANS ROAD.  

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I got a chance to see the entire supercell develop from the southern flank. What a beaut. I was out of the rain at my house with the exception of the outflow shower. The hail core was 1.5 miles up the road in Independent Hill then it expanded and slid east. All during that time, that hook developed along the outflow right over me. All kinds of low level rotation of clouds. I thought there was a chance something would spin up but it never did. It was truly something to see from the dry side.

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MDC017-033-VAC059-022315-  

/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-160502T2315Z/  

CHARLES MD-PRINCE GEORGES MD-FAIRFAX VA-  

701 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016  

 

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT  

FOR NORTHERN CHARLES...SOUTHWESTERN PRINCE GEORGES AND SOUTHEASTERN  

FAIRFAX COUNTIES...  

 

AT 700 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FORT  

WASHINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  

 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.  

 

IMPACT...EXPECT HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE TO  

ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES.  

 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  

NORTHERN CHARLES...SOUTHWESTERN PRINCE GEORGES AND SOUTHEASTERN  

FAIRFAX COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: POTOMAC  

HEIGHTS...WHITE PLAINS...BRYANTOWN...BRANDYWINE...TANTALLON...  


ACCOKEEK...NORTHWOOD...BRYANS ROAD...POMFRET AND MOUNT VERNON.  

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