AmericanWxFreak Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Anticipate insolation will further destablize atmosphere during the midday hours. Based on forecast surface conditions (going forecast and LAMP in good agreement, so used this in sounding analysis), there should be almost 2000 j/kg MLCAPE by late day, along with 30-35 kt effective shear. This should be more than enough to support convection, which is already noted in upper Ohio Valley. That area also has height falls and shortwave support to provide more than adequate forcing. In short, storms should become numerous by late day. At first, there may be a few discrete cells. Eventually, the form will evolve into an more consolidate area of showers and thunderstorms. Given foreast parameters, localized wind damage will be a concern. Reference MGRL/SLGT risk areas per SPC. After airmass saturates, the threat will evolve as well. Since moisture rich air will be converging upon a boundary, there is a threat of heavy rain across northern half of forecast area...specifically, eastern West Virginia, much of Maryland, and perhaps the northern Shenandoah Valley. This area best characterized as north of I-66 (VA)/ US-50 (MD). However, antecedent conditions actually quite dry. Going forecast, and current Flash Flood Watch, captures intersection of ingredients and flood guidance well. There are no plans to adjust Watch area at this time. Timing is uncertain still, due to a disparity amongst guidance. Certainly risk will be heightened for the second half of the afternoon through the evening. It is less clear how far into the overnight this will last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Taking the under. I've been missed so much recently that I'm doing the same. Downplay it and hopefully be excited when my expectations bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 T'storm watch incoming it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Severe Tstorm Watch coming shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 I know its in Mt. Holly's CWA... but there was a confirmed TOG in E MD (East Central Talbot County and Southwestern Caroline County were the counties TW'd at that time)... TOG was located near Trappe, 7 miles south of Easton per the warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Woah, long duration watch... STW in effect till midnight...unusual around here if I remember correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 After improving a bit - mid level lapse rates are worse again. Also at the 5500 CAPE pocket in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Certainly looks like a verifiable Flash Flood Watch, lots of energy around the area right now. Might be a fun ride home. Also Dew Points are redicolous in and around areas that already had rain, like Baltimore/Harford County, Upper 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 15 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: That looks nice and fun... hope the HRRR is right... it also has been off and on showing a decent line coming through N VA/DC/C MD around 01z or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 I am monitoring the cluster of activity that is sitting around Petersburg, WV. That could morph into our cluster that is modeled on the HRRR (or not). Not moving a whole lot right now. The stuff in the panhandles of WV/MD looks like general hvy rain and thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 25 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Yes, please. But I'd take some simple heavy rain and loud rumbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Watching the area just W of Stephens City, VA. That seems to be area with highest echo tops. The storm in MoCo doesn't look all that impressive. Just looks like a popup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 a lot of the individual storm elements are moving ENE, but the storms (or groups of them,) are extending to the WSW. Some are staying in the same spot, which lends to the flash flood threat. Winds at 500mb are about 30-35kt from the WSW. Actually some effective shear values are 30-40kt in the Mid Atlantic, which is reasonable for producing some hail/wind reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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