yoda Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Hmmm... surprise STW out til 8 PM for most of LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Lwx going with some big warnings on the line. Maybe this gets a bit fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Lwx going with some big warnings on the line. Maybe this gets a bit fun?Looks interesting. Little pop up near Centreville growing a little bit too, probably bodes well for the environment in the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Looks interesting. Little pop up near Centreville growing a little bit too, probably bodes well for the environment in the metro area. Just saw that, went up really fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Echo tops look most impressive on the Front Royal/Luray section of the line. LWX always goes with those big polygons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Just saw that, went up really fast. Yep. Was hoping to get in teaching some swim lessons (looking like I may be screwed after 4:00 or so) but if that grows big enough thunder may be heard locally. Looks like something may be trying to form N of the beltway as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Echo tops look most impressive on the Front Royal/Luray section of the line. LWX always goes with those big polygons. I think they always do the large polygons when there is a squall line approaching because of the supposed damaging wind gust threat and like to let people know ahead of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Storm approaching the WV/VA mountain border. Can hear some rumbling as it nears. 88/68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Centreville storm seen from Round Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Looks like there are some reports from trained weather spotters in the southern part of the line reporting wind gusts over 60mph per SWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Meh, I see outflow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 First legit storm of the season for MBY.... Rain .48" , wind 43mph gust and plenty of noise....on to Death Valley summer now. I'm dreading the next week +.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 Lot of wind reports per LWX storm reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 I have to admit that I'm surprised by the number of wind reports. I guess, though, that with the low-level lapse rates, the shear and drier air in the lower levels was just enough to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 18, 2016 Share Posted July 18, 2016 31 minutes ago, high risk said: I have to admit that I'm surprised by the number of wind reports. I guess, though, that with the low-level lapse rates, the shear and drier air in the lower levels was just enough to produce. Given the crappy trees around here and the older infrastructure, it's not hard to get damage reports from storms that are not "true severe." 40-45 mph gusts will do the job more often than not in the greater D.C. region. Not sure how it is elsewhere, but that's the general climo around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 Nice small cluster in north central VA that is warned ETA: golf ball sized hail in the Orange/Spotsy warned cell per SWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadowzone Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 We are getting slammed in Richmond, VA. Very dark, visibility might be 100 yards, reports of hail in the area, wind is howling. The lights are still on at the office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 The Richmond area seems to be doing well with severe lately. I have had many good storms this season in Prince George. This evening I received all of the above.... wind, hail, C/G lightning, torrential sideways rain, flickering of power!! Love these kind of storms where in the end I managed to keep my power on. Great evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 LWX throws us an uncertain bone in the long term section of the discussion this morning. Mentions an organized event being possible but uncertainty too high right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 58 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: LWX throws us an uncertain bone in the long term section of the discussion this morning. Mentions an organized event being possible but uncertainty too high right now. Bring me the head of the upcoming heat wave on the rim of a shelf cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 The NAM actually has a little finger of good parameters running through parts of the area tomorrow evening/night. But it's the NAM and so I will choose not to believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 The 4km NAM for tomorrow is actually quite nice on sim reflectivity tomorrow evening. Whether it's anything more than heavy rain and thunder remains to be seen. But it does have a good blob of activity running from NW to SE along the Potomac on the 2z frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Additionally - the SPC SREF maps don't look awful but the problem is it's mainly late. the 3z and 6z maps for tomorrow night look the best. Can't let myself get sucked into this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 LWX morning disco is tasty There will be a severe wx threat with t-storms this afternoon into early evening and a heavy rainfall threat with isolated flash flooding tonight into Fri morning. 0-6km bulk shear of 35-40 kt and decent helicities will support a risk of isolated discrete supercells with perhaps a tornado before activity consolidates more during the evening. 1300 SPC OTLK introduces 2% TOR for LWX CWA and expands the SLGT risk some to include most of LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 HRRR is convecting pretty early compared to say the 6z NAM 4km. Could be the HRRR up to its usual tricks. I haven't looked at the experimental. Also - some of the latest HRRR runs have good updraft helicity swaths over La Plata - Ian can yell at me for using those maps now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 12z 4km NAM looks decent to me around/just after dinner time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z 4km NAM looks decent to me around/just after dinner time Doesn't look as good for me. Looks best in VA and then in Southern Maryland. Doesn't send a strong "line" through DC metro any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Doesn't look as good for me. Looks best in VA and then in Southern Maryland. Doesn't send a strong "line" through DC metro any more. 13z HRRR at 01z then looks better for you ETA: 14z HRRR looks nice at 00z with its line out west (not out to 02z yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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