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Spring severe weather chatter


Ian

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Echo tops look most impressive on the Front Royal/Luray section of the line. LWX always goes with those big polygons. 

I think they always do the large polygons when there is a squall line approaching because of the supposed damaging wind gust threat and like to let people know ahead of time

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31 minutes ago, high risk said:

I have to admit that I'm surprised by the number of wind reports.   I guess, though, that with the low-level lapse rates, the shear and drier air in the lower levels was just enough to produce.

Given the crappy trees around here and the older infrastructure, it's not hard to get damage reports from storms that are not "true severe." 40-45 mph gusts will do the job more often than not in the greater D.C. region. Not sure how it is elsewhere, but that's the general climo around here.

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The Richmond area seems to be doing well with severe lately. I have had many good storms this season in Prince George. This evening I received all of the above.... wind, hail, C/G lightning, torrential sideways rain, flickering of power!! Love these kind of storms where in the end I managed to keep my power on. Great evening!

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The 4km NAM for tomorrow is actually quite nice on sim reflectivity tomorrow evening. Whether it's anything more than heavy rain and thunder remains to be seen. But it does have a good blob of activity running from NW to SE along the Potomac on the 2z frame. 

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LWX morning disco is tasty ;)

There will be a severe wx threat with
t-storms this afternoon into early evening and a heavy rainfall
threat with isolated flash flooding tonight into Fri morning.
0-6km bulk shear of 35-40 kt and decent helicities will support a
risk of isolated discrete supercells with perhaps a tornado before
activity consolidates more during the evening.

 

1300 SPC OTLK introduces 2% TOR for LWX CWA and expands the SLGT risk some to include most of LWX CWA

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HRRR is convecting pretty early compared to say the 6z NAM 4km. Could be the HRRR up to its usual tricks. I haven't looked at the experimental. 

Also - some of the latest HRRR runs have good updraft helicity swaths over La Plata ;) - Ian can yell at me for using those maps now. 

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9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

 

Doesn't look as good for me. Looks best in VA and then in Southern Maryland. Doesn't send a strong "line" through DC metro any more. 

13z HRRR at 01z then looks better for you ;)

ETA: 14z HRRR looks nice at 00z with its line out west (not out to 02z yet)

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