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Spring severe weather chatter


Ian

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Shear's not very good. Maybe something like last go where some generally non severe stuff happens. Wild card is some cold pool running through instability since we do have better sfc juice in general.  But seems discombobulated.

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Shear's not very good. Maybe something like last go where some generally non severe stuff happens. Wild card is some cold pool running through instability since we do have better sfc juice in general.  But seems discombobulated.

 

I'm out. Ian is my storm barometer now. :( 

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fairly good signal in the HRRR and HRRRX for storms to roll through the area during the middle and then late parts of the afternoon.   But as others here have noted (and SPC notes in the outlook), shear is very, very marginal.    Hard to expect more than isolated severe, but I'll take some heavy rainers.

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fairly good signal in the HRRR and HRRRX for storms to roll through the area during the middle and then late parts of the afternoon.   But as others here have noted (and SPC notes in the outlook), shear is very, very marginal.    Hard to expect more than isolated severe, but I'll take some heavy rainers.

Yes both the HRRR and the HRRRx look like garden variety showers and storms. And the 6z 4km NAM is a DC split and looks a lot less impressive than it did prior. 

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  I wouldn't quite call them "garden variety", as at least the HRRRX organizes a pretty healthy line, but the overall implication that widespread severe is unlikely appears accurate.

 

  This is the 12z parallel HRRR taken from mageval.ncep.noaa.gov

 

Yes both the HRRR and the HRRRx look like garden variety showers and storms. And the 6z 4km NAM is a DC split and looks a lot less impressive than it did prior. 

post-10922-0-49777900-1467985700_thumb.g

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The 12z Dulles sounding is crap, with sad lapse rates.   But the 12z Wilmington, OH sounding shows a modest EML.    With the westerly flow, if that can advect east, we'd have a shot at more impressive storms, but it has a long distance to cover, and initiation is likely early today.....

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The 12z Dulles sounding is crap, with sad lapse rates.   But the 12z Wilmington, OH sounding shows a modest EML.    With the westerly flow, if that can advect east, we'd have a shot at more impressive storms, but it has a long distance to cover, and initiation is likely early today.....

 

I hadn't heard of Wilmington, OH and figured it was in eastern OH - then I looked it up and I got sad. Though...I"ll cling to the weenie notion that 12z as a while ago ;)

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fairly good signal in the HRRR and HRRRX for storms to roll through the area during the middle and then late parts of the afternoon. But as others here have noted (and SPC notes in the outlook), shear is very, very marginal. Hard to expect more than isolated severe, but I'll take some heavy rainers.

HRRR isn't very good with these kinds of setups IMO. It's trigger happy. NAM ftw.
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   not sure I really agree.    Yeah, the HRRR was overdone, but the HRRRX image I posted earlier valid at 19z isn't bad.  It's overdone, but the timing is right, and it certainly points to DC and points north during the mid-afternoon.   NAM nest has less coverage but probably too little coverage of heavier storms.

 

    but regardless, the HRRR is absolutely trigger happy, but the changes in HRRRX are targeted to mitigate that bias, and stats and case studies show huge success in that regard.

 

 

 

HRRR isn't very good with these kinds of setups IMO. It's trigger happy. NAM ftw.

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not sure I really agree. Yeah, the HRRR was overdone, but the HRRRX image I posted earlier valid at 19z isn't bad. It's overdone, but the timing is right, and it certainly points to DC and points north during the mid-afternoon. NAM nest has less coverage but probably too little coverage of heavier storms.

but regardless, the HRRR is absolutely trigger happy, but the changes in HRRRX are targeted to mitigate that bias, and stats and case studies show huge success in that regard.

Well in general the HRRR has a bad track record with weak forcing IMO just from personal observation. Not as sure about the HRRrx. Did look at both earlier this morning and both were too gung ho at least DC and west but didn't really look at a ton of runs. I'm a fan of the HRRR in general but I get the feeling many (not you) have selective memory with it especially since it runs hourly.

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Next. I'm tired of this.

Good news is we are running out of time. :( I mean we still have 2 mo or so but typical coverage and intensity is waning noticeably shortly unless we have an anomalous event.
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Good news is we are running out of time. :( I mean we still have 2 mo or so but typical coverage and intensity is waning noticeably shortly unless we have an anomalous event.

 

And an anomalous event doesn't seem likely. Honestly at this point I'd prefer to be in September/October to when we start getting pencil thin but "fun" lines to track or really dynamic systems. 

Yes, July and August seem to always be big with pulse or scattered severe vs widespread. I might be switching to watching the models for tropical action soon. So sad. 

I remember a November event that was pretty fun back in 2006. 

I'll stop whining if my Mega Millions ticket wins tonight, though. I just want something to track - tropics would be cool too. We'll never have a big thing here ever again ever since our generator went in ;)

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Next week is trying to gather the signs of a period of enhanced interest given potential placement in the ring of fire around big US ridge. Ensembles would suggest a favorable pattern for MCS etc.

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Next week is trying to gather the signs of a period of enhanced interest given potential placement in the ring of fire around big US ridge. Ensembles would suggest a favorable pattern for MCS etc.

 

Let's hope it trends our way instead of vaporizing as we close. We've been good at lower threats as we close mostly this year. But if we've gotta go big on heat let's get some excitement. 

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42 minutes ago, yoda said:

Slight risk added mainly for damaging wind potential on 1630z OTLK

     yes, and 40% chance of a box at least for areas north of DC.    Line is trying to organize to our northwest, and decent instability and low-level lapse rates are in place, but the shear is just so, so marginal.   hard to envision more than just very isolated svr unless a strong cold pool can somehow materialize.

     

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