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Spring severe weather chatter


Ian

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More thunder. Rain starting to get harder again. 

 And now a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Nothing severe though. 

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 540 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SEVERNA

PARK...OR NEAR RIVIERA BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES

TO FALL. THIS COULD INJURE THOSE OUTDOORS...AS WELL AS

DAMAGE HOMES AND VEHICLES. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME BLOCKED BY

DOWNED TREES. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SEVERN...RIVIERA BEACH...SILLERY BAY...GIBSON ISLAND...FORT

SMALLWOOD STATE PARK...BODKIN POINT...PINEHURST...GLEN BURNIE...

SEVERNA PARK...ODENTON...PASADENA...ARNOLD...LAKE SHORE...

FERNDALE...FORT MEADE...SOUTH GATE...GREEN HAVEN...MILLERSVILLE...

CAPE ST. CLAIRE AND GAMBRILLS.

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    it looks like mostly widespread heavy showers with maybe some thunder too.     Shear is ok, but sfc-based cape values are generally under 1000 unless you go well south of DC.     So I wouldn't totally rule out isolated severe mainly south of DC, but it's hard to get excited about this.

 

12z NAM still likes something Mon evening into Monday night

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it looks like mostly widespread heavy showers with maybe some thunder too. Shear is ok, but sfc-based cape values are generally under 1000 unless you go well south of DC. So I wouldn't totally rule out isolated severe mainly south of DC, but it's hard to get excited about this.

I'm out

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12z CIPS spits out a little pocket of enhanced severe potential around hour 60 in our sector. 

If you click the southeast sector it has a big severe indication at hour 84 from OH into our area - hr 84 looks a lot less impressive when using the box centered on our area, though. Grasping...

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