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Spring severe weather chatter


Ian

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did a quick damage survey this morning, and there was definitely a significant small microburst just west of the APL campus near the intersection of Route 29 and Johns Hopkins Road in southern Howard County.    Several large trees were uprooted, and several more were sheared off.   The severity and clustering of the damage there was more significant than anything else I saw in that area.

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did a quick damage survey this morning, and there was definitely a significant small microburst just west of the APL campus near the intersection of Route 29 and Johns Hopkins Road in southern Howard County. Several large trees were uprooted, and several more were sheared off. The severity and clustering of the damage there was more significant than anything else I saw in that area.

Just driving through some of the roads across from APL reminded me of post derecho conditions. Almost every other family was out there cleaning up this evening. Some yards were a wreck... Does the NWS always confirm microbursts or is that on occasion that I remember seeing it?

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Majority of area added to marginal risk for tomorrow. 

 

"TO THE S...LIFT WILL BE MUCH LESS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER

INTO THE DELMARVA. HODOGRAPHS HERE ARE MORE STRAIGHT-LINE AND WOULD
SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE. HAVE
EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK INTO THIS AREA...BUT STORM COVERAGE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A SLIGHT AT THIS TIME."

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6z Day 1 Marginal Risk east of I-81, with a Slight Risk from the Blue Ridge eastward. Shear and CAPE combo looks pretty good, but best dynamics are north. Models are struggling to put out anything beyond isolated cells south of PA. Enough low-level directional shear for a couple of supercells, but main storm mode would have splitting cells with the strong unidirectional flow aloft.

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HRRR too, just after 20z.

Looks like difference is the HRRR pops it mostly right over the metro while the WRF-NMM SPC pops it west and brings it through. Also the HRRR is more focused to the south of DC. LWX in the morning discussion mentioned potential differential heating boundaries so that could be a factor too. Isolated spot could definitely get smacked today - but the coverage should be pretty low on svr reports. 

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Storms starting to initiate near Frederick, HRRR/Para HRRR has these rolling through 4-6pm, but it's quiet afterward. Could be a sleeper day but don't ignore. SPC MCD with an 80% chance of watch area Northeast of DC. MLCAPE near 1500 as of 12:00pm.

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The MD covers a large area and implies that it may be a tornado watch that is issued.    But the tornado threat is definitely much further north and seems fairly low here.   I would hope that if they do issue a tornado watch, it's for the Hudson Valley and north Jersey and that they issue a separate severe t-storm watch for areas further south.

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   it's a little odd.   lapse rates are lame north of here too, and there is less cape up there, and the radar north of Maryland looks 100x better than the one down here.     they've got better lift, so maybe that's helping, but something is definitely wrong down our way.

 

   I'm lucky at least in that I'm now getting my 2nd torrential downpour of the afternoon.

 

 

 

Mid level lapse rates are pretty bad. SHear doesn't look all that bad on mesoanalysis

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Think it's mostly lack of forcing and generally stable heights around here. We tend to step up the storm threat in closing around here but not sure we really deserved a slight today. MRGL seemed fine.

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