high risk Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 did a quick damage survey this morning, and there was definitely a significant small microburst just west of the APL campus near the intersection of Route 29 and Johns Hopkins Road in southern Howard County. Several large trees were uprooted, and several more were sheared off. The severity and clustering of the damage there was more significant than anything else I saw in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 did a quick damage survey this morning, and there was definitely a significant small microburst just west of the APL campus near the intersection of Route 29 and Johns Hopkins Road in southern Howard County. Several large trees were uprooted, and several more were sheared off. The severity and clustering of the damage there was more significant than anything else I saw in that area. Just driving through some of the roads across from APL reminded me of post derecho conditions. Almost every other family was out there cleaning up this evening. Some yards were a wreck... Does the NWS always confirm microbursts or is that on occasion that I remember seeing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 4 years ago tonight...all hell broke loose. The last good severe weather event in the region and last justified MOD Risk, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 30, 2016 Author Share Posted June 30, 2016 I don't think we have had a mod risk since then? At least around DC. Maybe northern MD. Feb was close but south and arguably justified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 I don't think we have had a mod risk since then? At least around DC. Maybe northern MD. Feb was close but south and arguably justified. Does after the 4th still require some attention? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Majority of area added to marginal risk for tomorrow. "TO THE S...LIFT WILL BE MUCH LESS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER INTO THE DELMARVA. HODOGRAPHS HERE ARE MORE STRAIGHT-LINE AND WOULDSUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE. HAVEEXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK INTO THIS AREA...BUT STORM COVERAGE DOESNOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A SLIGHT AT THIS TIME." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 6z Day 1 Marginal Risk east of I-81, with a Slight Risk from the Blue Ridge eastward. Shear and CAPE combo looks pretty good, but best dynamics are north. Models are struggling to put out anything beyond isolated cells south of PA. Enough low-level directional shear for a couple of supercells, but main storm mode would have splitting cells with the strong unidirectional flow aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 The WRF-NMM run for SPC looks a lot more impressive than the other guidance. Has a line segment looking thing coming through the metro area after 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 The WRF-NMM run for SPC looks a lot more impressive than the other guidance. Has a line segment looking thing coming through the metro area after 21z. HRRR too, just after 20z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 HRRR too, just after 20z. Looks like difference is the HRRR pops it mostly right over the metro while the WRF-NMM SPC pops it west and brings it through. Also the HRRR is more focused to the south of DC. LWX in the morning discussion mentioned potential differential heating boundaries so that could be a factor too. Isolated spot could definitely get smacked today - but the coverage should be pretty low on svr reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 not much to add here, as Ellinwood and KMLWX have discussed things well: best dynamics north but good instability and improving shear over our area. coverage is the biggest question, but recent runs of both the HRRR and HRRRX are encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Crickets in here, where is everyone? ENH issued for areas to the north. 5% tor gets pretty close to the M/D still. 15/15/2 still otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Storms starting to initiate near Frederick, HRRR/Para HRRR has these rolling through 4-6pm, but it's quiet afterward. Could be a sleeper day but don't ignore. SPC MCD with an 80% chance of watch area Northeast of DC. MLCAPE near 1500 as of 12:00pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 The MD covers a large area and implies that it may be a tornado watch that is issued. But the tornado threat is definitely much further north and seems fairly low here. I would hope that if they do issue a tornado watch, it's for the Hudson Valley and north Jersey and that they issue a separate severe t-storm watch for areas further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 84/72 at DCA. Fairly gross, but not nearly as bad as it could be at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued until 10 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0314.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Radar unimpressive. Some of the cells looked okay but now have weakened into showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Can see an outflow boundary north of Leesburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 Zzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 unimpressive so far for sure - not even any lightning. but on the plus side, my garden here in North Laurel is getting a fantastic soaking right now. << edit >> thunder now on the southern Howard County cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Wow the cell east of city got huge really fast. http://imgur.com/7bIzi9g -- cloud pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 unless something forms further west of the current measly line -- i aint seeing anything IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 The storm that popped up over downtown Baltmore went to crazy rain rates and high wind remarkably quickly. Half a block visibility from my office looking east toward courthouse/city hall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Looking at radar, this particular cell is super localized to downtown Baltimore. But that was as heavy a rain as I have seen in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Looking at radar, this particular cell is super localized to downtown Baltimore. But that was as heavy a rain as I have seen in a long time. yeah the little cell over north laurel had prolific rain rates also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 clouds are screaming popup storms. hit/miss, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Mid level lapse rates are pretty bad. SHear doesn't look all that bad on mesoanalysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 it's a little odd. lapse rates are lame north of here too, and there is less cape up there, and the radar north of Maryland looks 100x better than the one down here. they've got better lift, so maybe that's helping, but something is definitely wrong down our way. I'm lucky at least in that I'm now getting my 2nd torrential downpour of the afternoon. Mid level lapse rates are pretty bad. SHear doesn't look all that bad on mesoanalysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 Think it's mostly lack of forcing and generally stable heights around here. We tend to step up the storm threat in closing around here but not sure we really deserved a slight today. MRGL seemed fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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