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Spring severe weather chatter


Ian

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total legit severe here in southeast Howard County.    the line bowed just before it arrived, and the winds here easily topped 50 kt.   Have a huge chunk of a tree down in my and my neighbor's yard that crushed a section of the fence separating us.

Really?  Nothing even close IMBY.  Probably had some 30-35kt gusts. 

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One or two drops and I get more impressive wind gusts out of my car a/c.

I'm usually not one to dwell on the "DC split" but it seemed that was really at play this afternoon. At least from the radar, it seems that just about everyone around got at least something. But here in upper NW, even the cloud formations were meh.

This has been, IMBY at least, a pretty sorry severe wx season. (Well, Feb 24th excepted.) Maybe July will produce. Just like January came through after a dismal December.

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Speaking strictly from a statistical standpoint - we get more hard pressed to get moderate risk days in July vs June. I'd assume it's mostly because we trend towards higher CAPE and lower shear days in general towards the core of summer. Still some decent severe days obviously but from an SPC category only moderates are tougher to get around here in July. 

Though this year we have had some pretty good shear/CAPE juxtaposition days which is always fun to see. As Ian has remarked a few times we've had a bunch of supercell days which is not exactly normal for the region. 

I just hope we don't completely fall into our pulse severe that becomes common in July. Hopefully we can keep shear respectable into July. With that said, those pulsey days can be great if you get under a good storm feeding off 5000 CAPE ;) 

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Speaking strictly from a statistical standpoint - we get more hard pressed to get moderate risk days in July vs June. I'd assume it's mostly because we trend towards higher CAPE and lower shear days in general towards the core of summer. Still some decent severe days obviously but from an SPC category only moderates are tougher to get around here in July. 

Though this year we have had some pretty good shear/CAPE juxtaposition days which is always fun to see. As Ian has remarked a few times we've had a bunch of supercell days which is not exactly normal for the region. 

I just hope we don't completely fall into our pulse severe that becomes common in July. Hopefully we can keep shear respectable into July. With that said, those pulsey days can be great if you get under a good storm feeding off 5000 CAPE ;)

 

That vort passage Mon/Tues on the GFS needs to be watched.  The ridge continues to stay out west, so that at least saves us from the complete doldrums of summer.

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That vort passage Mon/Tues on the GFS needs to be watched.  The ridge continues to stay out west, so that at least saves us from the complete doldrums of summer.

Ian also said on Twitter last night that the Euro yesterday had the "people mentioning d word" pattern showing up after the 4th. 

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Ian also said on Twitter last night that the Euro yesterday had the "people mentioning d word" pattern showing up after the 4th. 

well the EPS at least. op builds a ridge in further east.   

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   I don't actually work in the LWX office, so I can't speak for why your report didn't make it into a storm report.

 

   But I'll chastise them the next time I talk to them.

 

Ha, saw these on Twitter from LWX.

By the way, I emailed a hail report, didn't see it anywhere?

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My June 16 report never made it on the list either. But I'm at least somewhat sure LWX hates me so that might be the reason.

 

There may very well be something wrong with LWX Skywarn procedures. I mentioned on here recently that they completely lost my spotter registration at some point in the last few years. Apparently my ID now belongs to somebody in Olney and they have ZERO record of me. I did take the class a longgg time ago but they said they don't purge people from the system. ID worked fine for me since I was like 14...

At least one other poster in this subforum said a similar thing happened. At this point I figure if I have a report I'll relay it through Eskimo Joe or just take to Twitter. The LWX spotter program has left me with a bit of a bad taste in my mouth. I was scheduled to take the class again at their open house but couldn't make it. I would hate to take it again and then for them to lose my registration again. 

I think at least part of it is the massive influx they probably got when CWG put out the notice for people to come become spotters. No ill feelings towards you or any of the CWG folks, though - better to have more spotters that know what they are doing - but I can't help but think that's what caused people like me to get tossed. 

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   I don't actually work in the LWX office, so I can't speak for why your report didn't make it into a storm report.

 

   But I'll chastise them the next time I talk to them.

 

:lol: no need to chastise. I assumed you worked in the LWX office, since you don't... no need to follow up. 

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