eurojosh Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 HPC- ...EASTERN OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC... A STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON DAY 1 PARALLELS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING OVER THE SAME AREA...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ON THE FRONT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL FUEL CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY AFTER 17/00Z. CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN MI INTO NORTHERN WV AND NORTHERN VA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE FIRST SHOT OF CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE COAST BEFORE 16/18Z. THE NEXT SHOT OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST CLOSE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AS A SURFACE REFLECTION TRAVELS DOWN THE FRONT AS WELL. INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN OH SHOULD BE MAINLY OUTFLOW DOMINATED...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS. HOWEVER...AFTER 17/00Z...THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SYSTEMS BACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH TAPS A RICH RESERVOIR OF 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT THE COLUMN BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST AS THE INFLOW INCREASES...AND WARM RAIN PROCESSES BECOME MORE IMPORTANT. THE INFLOW ALSO BECOMES ALMOST DIRECTLY OPPOSED TO THE MOTION OF THE CONVECTION FOR A TIME...CENTERED ON 17/06Z. BACKBUILDING BECOMES INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THIS SCENARIO...RAISING THE SPECTER FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC. THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR 2.50 TO 3.50 INCH QPF AMOUNTS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN PA ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WV INTO WESTERN MD/NORTHERN VA...WITH THE 00Z WRF ARW SHOWING LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER 4.00 INCHES. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE INFLOW...AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE FUNNELED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THESE AMOUNTS SEEM PLAUSIBLE. THE CONVECTION BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT STARTS TO EXHAUST ITS INSTABILITY SUPPLY AFTER 17/06Z...AND THE CONVECTION COMPLEX SHOULD REACH EASTERN MD THROUGH SOUTHEAST VA BY 17/12Z. AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...THE ONE AHD THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH (WITH VALUES ARE LOW AS 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN WV). HOWEVER...HIGH RAINFALL RATES IN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SUGGEST THAT A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Need a thread. Somebody start it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Tornado Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 What's next? I'm still hungry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 The idea of the mid-Atlantic being on the northern periphery of a big ridge with fast WNW flow overhead seems to be dead. Severe chances next week not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 The idea of the mid-Atlantic being on the northern periphery of a big ridge with fast WNW flow overhead seems to be dead. Severe chances next week not looking good. u g h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 The idea of the mid-Atlantic being on the northern periphery of a big ridge with fast WNW flow overhead seems to be dead. Severe chances next week not looking good. Just DC being DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 We'll probably be done with severe except for a few pulsey days until pencil thin line season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 17, 2016 Author Share Posted June 17, 2016 The idea of the mid-Atlantic being on the northern periphery of a big ridge with fast WNW flow overhead seems to be dead. Severe chances next week not looking good.Not sure it's totally dead but that offshore low is messing with the best chance as of now on Tuesday. Prob can still eke something out in the region but doesn't scream big at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Not sure it's totally dead but that offshore low is messing with the best chance as of now on Tuesday. Prob can still eke something out in the region but doesn't scream big at the moment. I expect 1 or 2 big time model runs to reel Yoda in. Then as we get close and it falls apart Yoda will somehow reel me in and then we'll both go down with the ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 On the CIPS page for the 0z run if you click the SE sector instead of ours there are some decent analog days showing up. Not so much if you pick our sector though. Really sour severe season for most of us - a few exceptions around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 On the CIPS page for the 0z run if you click the SE sector instead of ours there are some decent analog days showing up. Not so much if you pick our sector though. Really sour severe season for most of us - a few exceptions around the area. this season seems somewhat delayed. it could be that july is our month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 this season seems somewhat delayed. it could be that july is our month. Perhaps - tho usually by July we don't have as much good shear to work with. July tends to be big on high instability but weak speed shear at best. It's always something with our area and severe. I'm not sure I want to have a bunch of high instability pulse severe days where a storm goes up - gets super intense for like 15 minutes and then collapses in on itself leaving only outflow. Crossing my fingers for something more impressive! Ian is right about that offshore low screwing things up. If only it weren't on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 I'd settle for some tropical remnants going up to our west and giving us an Ivan type day. That would be exciting. So far it looks pretty boring, though...and our odds at more tropical related stuff don't really start going upwards until August/September. Doldrums of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2016 Author Share Posted June 18, 2016 GFS liking Thurs quite a bit. I think we'll get something interesting in this pattern ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 GFS liking Thurs quite a bit. I think we'll get something interesting in this pattern ahead. Taking a look now - just looking at 500mb vort so far looks realllly tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 I had written off the week in a previous post, but I have to admit that the Thursday setup is intriguing. Heck, even Tuesday late afternoon could have a some sort of squall line if the front waits until later in the day. The cape/shear combination for Tuesday isn't a show-stopper, but it could be sufficient. GFS liking Thurs quite a bit. I think we'll get something interesting in this pattern ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 That's pretty impressive. Looks a touch early though at 12z. Though looking at the other maps it still looks like it gets good CAPE and parameters in here later in the day. rf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Day 3 marginal just to our south per SPC. Slight isn't super far away either. I remain more intrigued by Thursday - GFS appears to have backed off a little bit on the best parameters. I'm sure it'll bounce around, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2016 Author Share Posted June 19, 2016 Random click at 18z on Tue per 12z GFS gave me 5,600 CAPE. I think both Tue and Thurs could work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Random click at 18z on Tue per 12z GFS gave me 5,600 CAPE. I think both Tue and Thurs could work. Two days in one week would be pretty sweet. Both seem pretty conditional though (as it always is). Hopefully the front doesn't clear us too quickly on Tuesday - and hopefully that nice 500 look we've been seeing for Thursday sticks around. Got some crazy soundings on COD website around the area for Thursday despite the maps looking less impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 19, 2016 Author Share Posted June 19, 2016 Two days in one week would be pretty sweet. Both seem pretty conditional though (as it always is). Hopefully the front doesn't clear us too quickly on Tuesday - and hopefully that nice 500 look we've been seeing for Thursday sticks around. Got some crazy soundings on COD website around the area for Thursday despite the maps looking less impressive. Euro and GFS both seem slow enough on Tuesday to keep us in the action. Know NAM and SREF are faster but would perhaps lean on the globals still for timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 18z NAM for Tuesday seems to put best instability up near the M/D line. Sim reflectivity doesn't look too impressive but obviously it'll waffle back and forth. NAM at range for 06z Thursday has a massive slug of precip moving in from the north and west. But it's the NAM at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 New day 2 risk bumped just far enough north to include DC in the slight risk, with marginal almost to the M/D. The disco sounds semi exciting too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 New day 2 risk bumped just far enough north to include DC in the slight risk, with marginal almost to the M/D. The disco sounds semi exciting too? Looks like it should be an interesting next few days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Tomorrows disco - FARTHER E INTO VA...MD AND DE...STRONGER HEATING WILL OCCUR WHICH WILL RESULT IN AROUND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVELSHEAR/SRH WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITHHEIGHT AND WILL FAVOR LONG-LIVED CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ANDDAMAGING WIND. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS APPEARS POSSIBLE. DAY 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 4k has a weak line of storms in the morning and then the afternoon ends up looking a lot like the last event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 4km NAM has a DC special supercell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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