AmericanWxFreak Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 Not even a marginal risk anymore. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 [quote name="high risk" As for what you're seeing, are you looking at Tropical Tidbits which displays the composite reflectivity for the 12 km data and the precip rate for the 32 km? ah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 51 hr nam likes it... oddly more on the 12k than the 32k. 48 hr nam likes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 48 hr nam likes it. yit actuall builds nice cape into the area but it retreats just before this thing comes thru... looks kinda fun nonetheless EDIT: 6z 4k version looks nothing like it... well see what 12z shows in a few mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 12z NAM has gotten better instability wise -- KIAD at 00z FRI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 12z NAM sounding for 21z FRI at KDCA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 15, 2016 Author Share Posted June 15, 2016 Think SPC went too far SW.. would probably at least have a marginal if not a slight basically up to the Potomac River. But still not anticipating a whole lot locally. Next week tho. ;d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 think you meant 21z THURS. but yes, this is a step in the right direction in terms of instability in DC Metro, although the problem remains that the cape gets wiped out by 00z, as the stronger easterly low-level flow quickly brings in cool air at the surface 12z NAM sounding for 21z FRI at KDCA: 12zNAMsoundingforKDCA00zFRI6-15-16.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 Think SPC went too far SW.. would probably at least have a marginal if not a slight basically up to the Potomac River. But still not anticipating a whole lot locally. Next week tho. ;d quoting so you can easily bump it later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 I like how the GFS doesn't even have 1" of rain areawide, but the EURO/NAM is like 3 times as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 Think SPC went too far SW.. would probably at least have a marginal if not a slight basically up to the Potomac River. But still not anticipating a whole lot locally. Next week tho. ;d How much are you expecting out of next week? I'll expect failure until we break the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 not to speak for Ian, but this image should make anyone who visits this forum a little tingly. complete model agreement in a monster ridge over the southwest next week (with insane heat) and fast west-northwest flow over the top with embedded shortwaves targeted right towards the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 I'll be in California next week. Bank on a derecho worse than 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 That does look REALLY nice. Glad it's not over 200 hours out too...but could still change a ton (hopefully not). Now we just need to hold it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 I'll be in California next week. Bank on a derecho worse than 2012. Hope you won't be in the San Jaoquin Valley. Looks like they may make a run at all-time highs next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 Knowing our track record - all of the nice shortwaves will come through at the worst time (like 4am). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 Hope you won't be in the San Jaoquin Valley. Looks like they may make a run at all-time highs next Tuesday. I'll be in San Diego for the ESRI conference June 25th -> July 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 The Euro is a deluge again, but it doesn't look much like an MCS by the time it gets to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 The Euro is a deluge again, but it doesn't look much like an MCS by the time it gets to us. How much we talking about over how long of a timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 How much we talking about over how long of a timeframe? Maybe 2-3" with higher pockets from very late evening Thurs to midday Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 are there any chances for this being a Derecho type event if things come together just right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 18z nam rolling, again increasing the amount of instability thurs eve EDIT: but like the other runs it is eroded just before the cluster reaches us @ 3z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 Any chance of that line to the sw being able to extend northward? If anything it looks like it's weakening right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 not sure if t his belongs here since its not very severe, but were getting nammed right now lol Still raining at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 48 hr nam likes it. 29hr nam likes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 16, 2016 Author Share Posted June 16, 2016 Get the floaties ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 0600 Day 1 OTLK from SPC -- hooray enhanced risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 There probably isn't going to be any severe east of the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 The 06z NAM 4K went crazy, looks like around 10" near IAD and again SE of the DC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 DC will be the Houston of the EC if that verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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