Bob Chill Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Seems to be the norm of late. Never was a huge storm place but the last few years have really sucked. It's the opposite of our winters' snowfall lately. The upcoming Nina disaster should set us up for a rockin spring so we have something to look forward to in the LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Seems to be the norm of late. Never was a huge storm place but the last few years have really sucked. Yeah. But, man, just really nothing this time around. Other than living vicariously through your yearly trip to the plains, just nada. Can't even get a roll of thunder this time around. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 I mean, Friday doesn't look devoid of opportunity if you split the GFS and Euro... Rain keeps down temps either way, I suspect. 6, or even 12, hours slower would be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 I mean, Friday doesn't look devoid of opportunity if you split the GFS and Euro... Rain keeps down temps either way, I suspect. 6, or even 12, hours slower would be better. 84 hr nam likes it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 Hmmm... Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 84 hr nam likes it... 63 hr nam likes it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 Double interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 Is that just a blob of heavy rain or is that potentially severe convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 Is that just a blob of heavy rain or is that potentially severe convection? I would assume that it is an MCS with its origins in E OH and moving ESE... Reason being (IMO) is that development occurs at hrs 54 and 57 across SE OH/N WVA/SW PA as a 1000mb SLP is in NE W VA at hr 57... the SLP strengthens some as it moves SE into C VA to 998mb and the complex follows that path moving SE/ESE while strengthening as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 CAPE and parameters are all best to the southwest of DC. Supercell composite parameter is pretty much in the toilet until you are a bit south and west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 CAPE and parameters are all best to the southwest of DC. Supercell composite parameter is pretty much in the toilet until you are a bit south and west of the city. Yes, the KCHO sounding at hr 60 is ridiculous... but I am not that concerned right now about CAPE... main threat up here would be damaging winds since the heart of the MCS rolls through us per the 06z NAM and 12z NAM FWIW, 0z NAM sounding at hr 72 at KDCA had supercell composite of 16.5... so its def bouncing around right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 Yes, the KCHO sounding at hr 60 is ridiculous... but I am not that concerned right now about CAPE... main threat up here would be damaging winds since the heart of the MCS rolls through us per the 06z NAM and 12z NAM FWIW, 0z NAM sounding at hr 72 at KDCA had supercell composite of 16.5... so its def bouncing around right now We need a tiny bit of a north trend - which I think is reasonable. But using persistence (the Ian preferred method) I'd say we get nothing exciting given our recent track record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 Interesting to see the PWATs as the vort moves down from the Lakes. No surprise the NAM has a nice swath of heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 When are people going to stop getting suckered in by the NAM...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 When are people going to stop getting suckered in by the NAM...... When it's no longer the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 When it's no longer the NAM. At least post a graphic of the NAM that doesn't classify 36dbz as "yellow"...it deceptive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 When are people going to stop getting suckered in by the NAM...... When they stop running it At least post a graphic of the NAM that doesn't classify 36dbz as "yellow"...it deceptive. Less concerned about the color scale than the product. Just say no to composite reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 When they stop running it Less concerned about the color scale than the product. Just say no to composite reflectivity. Even pivotalweather only has composite reflectivity, so its kind of hard to avoid it... but if we are complaining about the dBz scale that tropicaltidbits uses, the 12z NAM at 63 hrs on pivotalweather has 55 dBz over the region... ETA: 12z GGEM looks to support the NAM in its MCS/complex idea IMO looking at the 6 hr accumulated QPF maps at hrs 54/60/66... same with the 12z UKIE at hr 72 12 hr QPF map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 The GFS is pretty lame and, even though it doesn't go out far enough, I don't like the idea of the 4km NAM. Rather than a moisture/instability surge in front of the "MCS", everything seems to be in retreat by 00z Fri. Given that scenario, I could see the MCS fire, but weaken as it comes towards us while the stronger part slides south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 The GFS is pretty lame and, even though it doesn't go out far enough, I don't like the idea of the 4km NAM. Rather than a moisture/instability surge in front of the "MCS", everything seems to be in retreat by 00z Fri. Given that scenario, I could see the MCS fire, but weaken as it comes towards us while the stronger part slides south. That would be my guess of what will happen at least at this stage. Yoda, you should know better than to use the GGEM - you're gonna get burned on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 Euro does have good rain over us Thurs night into Friday. Right now the DC metro is bulls-eyed, so take that for what its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 NAM and 4km NAM aren't very good. NAM has all the instability to our SW again but does have sim reflectivity that comes through our area. NAM 4km just misses us to the south almost entirely unless you're south of DC. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 63 hr nam likes it... 51 hr nam likes it... oddly more on the 12k than the 32k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 51 hr nam likes it... oddly more on the 12k than the 32k. It still looks mostly similar to me in terms of going largely to the south of DC with the worst of it. If you are in VA I'd be potentially excited about this but our users in Maryland and DC don't look all that exciting still other than heavy rain maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 they're not different models. The NAM is run at 12 km, so you're seeing the native resolution in the 12 km plots. The "32 km NAM" is just the same 12 km NAM run, interpolated to a coarser output grid. 51 hr nam likes it... oddly more on the 12k than the 32k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 they're not different models. The NAM is run at 12 km, so you're seeing the native resolution in the 12 km plots. The "32 km NAM" is just the same 12 km NAM run, interpolated to a coarser output grid. I'm sure this has been addressed in one of the multiple model threads, but why display a coarser version of more precise data? to get an idea of the spread? in this case, though, why is the coarser version displaying a more localized solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 The 32 km output grid covers the entire NAM domain. There are a lot of users that don't have the bandwidth to download full-domain 12 km grids (they're HUGE), so we (NCEP) generate coarser grids. We even have some users that view the NAM at 80 km. As for what you're seeing, are you looking at Tropical Tidbits which displays the composite reflectivity for the 12 km data and the precip rate for the 32 km? I'm sure this has been addressed in one of the multiple model threads, but why display a coarser version of more precise data? to get an idea of the spread?in this case, though, why is the coarser version displaying a more localized solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 15, 2016 Author Share Posted June 15, 2016 Thurs has seemed like a decent rain and some thunder event for a while. Pattern next week is something, and perhaps beyond at least thru end of the month. Big heat dome and a fairly strong jet riding atop. At the least it brings in mcs type threats and perhaps more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 ... Near Staunton VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 15, 2016 Share Posted June 15, 2016 you don't often see a forecast PDS tornado watch sounding in the mid-Atlantic..... the problem with tonight's NAM run is that is never gets instability into the DC-Baltimore metro area. There is a nice area of moderate instability for areas west of a line from Winchester to Charlottesville to Richmond, but it never advances to the east. Whatever system that forms would drop SSE along the instability gradient, and if you take the NAM nest solution verbatim, there wouldn't even be much rain for those on the east side of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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