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Spring severe weather chatter


Ian

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Still there on the 4 day SPC Outlook, but seems to be drifting further north than we would like.

 

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY
FROM OHIO AND POSSIBLY SERN LOWER MI ACROSS PA AND PERHAPS EXTENDING
EWD INTO SURROUNDING STATES. ECMWF SHOWS STORMS FROM LAKE ERIE INTO
CENTRAL AND ERN PA DURING THE DAY...CONTINUING ACROSS NJ SAT
EVENING...WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER W FROM WRN PA INTO OH. GIVEN
AMPLE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FROM THE W...A CORRIDOR OF SEVERE APPEARS LIKELY ALTHOUGH PRECISE
PLACEMENT OF THE GREATEST RISK WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT IN LATER
OUTLOOKS. VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

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Morning AFD from LWX sounds fun for Saturday into Saturday night:

 

 

 

hot air will spread
quickly eastward during the weekend with h85 temps rising to 20C
according to the latest 00Z GEFS and ECMWF. Moisture will also be
on the increase with sfc dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70F
bringing heat indices well into the 90s to near 100F both Sat and
Sun. Potential for an MCS to form over the upper Midwest Sat and
track sewd on nw flow aloft. Timing obviously this far out is
still uncertain but several stability indices and h85 theta-e
indicate indicate best potential for showers and t-storms Sat
night possibly lasting into early Sun morning.
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warning just issued for the northern counties.    not surprised.   given how windy it is outside of the storms, have to imagine that it's extremely gusty with the downdrafts, despite the absence of lightning

 

Where in the world did that come from? Looks like it mostly missed to the north, but I thought it was just supposed to be sunny, cooler and breezy today? I saw nothing in the forecast about t-storms.

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Where in the world did that come from? Looks like it mostly missed to the north, but I thought it was just supposed to be sunny, cooler and breezy today? I saw nothing in the forecast about t-storms.

 

There was a marginal risk just to the NE this morning so it seemed forecast. Caught me off guard tho too. 

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Northwest flow events here are always interesting, as it's often our best hope at directional shear.    Overall, the setup doesn't look nearly as good as it did a couple of days ago.    In earlier runs, the intense shortwave passed through Saturday night with huge height falls and a strong wind field.    Now, the big shortwave is much slower and further north, and our heights don't fall much at all.    That said, there may be a lead shortwave, and while the super impressive wind fields likely won't be in place, there is fairly strong directional shear and some speed shear.    And the NAM and GFS both imply storms firing to our northwest during the day and dropping southeast either over us or just north of us.

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Looks like 12z NAM is a little less impressive - it also takes most of the activity mainly north of the area. SPC risk area looks good right now I'd say. Will see what the GFS has to say in an hour or two. 

 

 A shortwave trough is expected to move across the Great Lakes

Saturday morning and move

downstream across the northeast. Thunderstorms are expected

however exact location and timing is still in question due to many

factors. One important point to make is that thunderstorms that do

form upstream have the potential to become strong to severe. At

this time...the higher probability of strong to severe storms is

across Southern NY/PA/NJ and northeast Maryland. Will need to

monitor upcoming forecasts for more fine tuning. Warmth and

humidity will arrive on Saturday with temperatures in the upper

80s and lower 90s.

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12z GFS agrees with this thing going north of us. Though NE MD gets hit a bit it seems. Also FWIW the 4km NAM also goes north. Without a south trend most of us may not get much of anything out of this. 

We shall see but I'd say once again that the SPC risk area is looking good. I just want some excitement for a change. 

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06z NAM showing 00z SUN (sounding taken from gburg area)

nam_2016060906_066_39.22--77.27.png

Messy. Not liking how the sounding is saturated -- Resembles what I saw on the soundings for this past Sunday. Wind field is kinda meh too.  This will probably be a non-event for most everyone here, except for the maybe the most northern folks in the subforum. 

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