eurojosh Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Can you post the one for KILG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Can you post the one for KILG? Nothing comes up for that location at all... as in no potential hazard type at all and the sup composite is below 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 I need to do some more reading into how SARS works. I always see it on those soundings but never really have looked into what it indicates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 I need to do some more reading into how SARS works. I always see it on those soundings but never really have looked into what it indicates. This is worth a read when you get the chance: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/jewell/sars.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 This is worth a read when you get the chance: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/jewell/sars.pdf I will read that tonight when I shake free a free period of time! Thanks!!! The little SARS window always looks more dramatic than it actually is in real life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Still there on the 4 day SPC Outlook, but seems to be drifting further north than we would like. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SATURDAYFROM OHIO AND POSSIBLY SERN LOWER MI ACROSS PA AND PERHAPS EXTENDINGEWD INTO SURROUNDING STATES. ECMWF SHOWS STORMS FROM LAKE ERIE INTOCENTRAL AND ERN PA DURING THE DAY...CONTINUING ACROSS NJ SATEVENING...WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER W FROM WRN PA INTO OH. GIVENAMPLE NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITYFROM THE W...A CORRIDOR OF SEVERE APPEARS LIKELY ALTHOUGH PRECISEPLACEMENT OF THE GREATEST RISK WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT IN LATEROUTLOOKS. VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWSWILL BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Morning AFD from LWX sounds fun for Saturday into Saturday night: hot air will spreadquickly eastward during the weekend with h85 temps rising to 20Caccording to the latest 00Z GEFS and ECMWF. Moisture will also beon the increase with sfc dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70Fbringing heat indices well into the 90s to near 100F both Sat andSun. Potential for an MCS to form over the upper Midwest Sat andtrack sewd on nw flow aloft. Timing obviously this far out isstill uncertain but several stability indices and h85 theta-eindicate indicate best potential for showers and t-storms Satnight possibly lasting into early Sun morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 warning just issued for the northern counties. not surprised. given how windy it is outside of the storms, have to imagine that it's extremely gusty with the downdrafts, despite the absence of lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 12z NAM sounding at hr 81 just south of DCA for 21z SAT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 12z NAM sounding at hr 81 just south of DCA for 21z SAT: 12zNAMsevereforSat6-11-16hr81.png lalala lock it up EDIT: Add some 0-1km shear and then lalalalock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 warning just issued for the northern counties. not surprised. given how windy it is outside of the storms, have to imagine that it's extremely gusty with the downdrafts, despite the absence of lightning Where in the world did that come from? Looks like it mostly missed to the north, but I thought it was just supposed to be sunny, cooler and breezy today? I saw nothing in the forecast about t-storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Where in the world did that come from? Looks like it mostly missed to the north, but I thought it was just supposed to be sunny, cooler and breezy today? I saw nothing in the forecast about t-storms. There was a marginal risk just to the NE this morning so it seemed forecast. Caught me off guard tho too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 I like how we got zilch from an day 2 enhanced, but got smacked from a marginal risk. A blue box would've verified beautifully today, especially from Howard county north. Some of the reports coming out of NE MD and Metro Philly are amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 I like how we got zilch from an day 2 enhanced, but got smacked from a marginal risk. A blue box would've verified beautifully today, especially from Howard county north. Some of the reports coming out of NE MD and Metro Philly are amazing. I agree, this thing looks MEAN up in SNJ/Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 I agree, this thing looks MEAN up in SNJ/Philly Yea, PHI is dropping severe level LSRs like every 10 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Sizeable power outages I-70 and points north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 How'd euro look for sat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 There's a few decent/juicy events on the 12z CIPS at the 84 hour panels. 6/24/1996 is showing up to be the most robust. There's also an event in '94 showing up and an event in '83. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 June 24, 1996 is #2 analog in the list. #6 is also a decent event and then #8 as well. A more minor event is at #10 and the rest are nada. I promised myself I wouldn't bite on this until the day before *sigh* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 8, 2016 Share Posted June 8, 2016 Northwest flow events here are always interesting, as it's often our best hope at directional shear. Overall, the setup doesn't look nearly as good as it did a couple of days ago. In earlier runs, the intense shortwave passed through Saturday night with huge height falls and a strong wind field. Now, the big shortwave is much slower and further north, and our heights don't fall much at all. That said, there may be a lead shortwave, and while the super impressive wind fields likely won't be in place, there is fairly strong directional shear and some speed shear. And the NAM and GFS both imply storms firing to our northwest during the day and dropping southeast either over us or just north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 FWIW, DT is bringing up the possibility of a derecho event on Saturday... https://m.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717/1055529864494271/?type=3&source=48&__tn__=E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 oh man, a derecho event would be fantastic. I'll be in the Cape May area, so watching it blow in over the water would be a sight to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Looking more and more like north is the place to be for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 06z NAM showing 00z SUN (sounding taken from gburg area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Looks like 12z NAM is a little less impressive - it also takes most of the activity mainly north of the area. SPC risk area looks good right now I'd say. Will see what the GFS has to say in an hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Looks like 12z NAM is a little less impressive - it also takes most of the activity mainly north of the area. SPC risk area looks good right now I'd say. Will see what the GFS has to say in an hour or two. A shortwave trough is expected to move across the Great Lakes Saturday morning and move downstream across the northeast. Thunderstorms are expected however exact location and timing is still in question due to many factors. One important point to make is that thunderstorms that do form upstream have the potential to become strong to severe. At this time...the higher probability of strong to severe storms is across Southern NY/PA/NJ and northeast Maryland. Will need to monitor upcoming forecasts for more fine tuning. Warmth and humidity will arrive on Saturday with temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 HoCo north doesnt look tooooo bad on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Gimme a south shift plssss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 12z GFS agrees with this thing going north of us. Though NE MD gets hit a bit it seems. Also FWIW the 4km NAM also goes north. Without a south trend most of us may not get much of anything out of this. We shall see but I'd say once again that the SPC risk area is looking good. I just want some excitement for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 06z NAM showing 00z SUN (sounding taken from gburg area) Messy. Not liking how the sounding is saturated -- Resembles what I saw on the soundings for this past Sunday. Wind field is kinda meh too. This will probably be a non-event for most everyone here, except for the maybe the most northern folks in the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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