AmericanWxFreak Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Any guesses on new spc outlook? I'm thinking they stick with the ENH but pull back on the wording a bit I win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 I never feel confident about any severe around here until I wake up to sunshine. I've seen way to many failures due to clouds and morning rain. We've been on a roll so far this spring, so I have faith in this setup. Plus, Ian gave me that fuzzy feeling last night lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 The Marginal Risk was BS yesterday, and it's BS again today. I still like their general idea for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Enjoy those clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 It is time - specific event thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/48379-june-5-6-2016-rain-and-storms-obs-and-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 I win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 I'm going to start to turn to the CFSv2 to scout out severe chances now. Desperation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 I'm going to start to turn to the CFSv2 to scout out severe chances now. Desperation Please share your findings. My weenie level is rising, I could use some hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Please share your findings. My weenie level is rising, I could use some hope Bunch of days with really good instability on the CFS lol - they'll probably fail too, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Bunch of days with really good instability on the CFS lol - they'll probably fail too, though.I like it. DC split showing up already? All joking aside, are we really watching Tuesday for anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 I should know better, but it seems like Tuesday does have some sleeper potential. Shortwave trough crosses the area during the early to mid afternoon. Flow is unidirectional, but the speed shear is impressive, with a 100+ kt jet at upper levels. Looks like 60+ kt of 0-6 km layer shear during the early afternoon decreasing slightly after that. Sfc-based cape may be in the 1000-1500 range, and soundings have the inverted-V look, suggesting some wind threat. Downside is that convergence is limited, and there is no well-defined front (although there may be a sfc trough) on which to focus, but lift associated with the shortwave may compensate. One further complicating factor is that we could be in a zone of subsidence as Colin passes to our southeast. I'd say it's worth a 5% outlook at this point. The really strong short wave and associated cold front with better convergence actually comes through Wednesday midday according to the 00z NAM. It implies a gusty line of showers (or perhaps boomers if the 1000 cape forecast pans out) then, although moisture is very limited. All joking aside, are we really watching Tuesday for anythinf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Here are some of the severe storm reports for June 5 (up to 12:26AM Eastern). There were quite a few storm reports near Baltimore and Philadelphia. Some of the icons on this chart are sub-severe (wind < 58mph, hail < 1in) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 So, SPC actually put us into a 15% outlook for Day 6! (Saturday). I'm kind of surprised that they outlooked an area, given the healthy spread in model details. That said, all guidance has a ridge axis to our west with extremely fast northwest flow in a corridor from the Great Lakes through the Mid-Atlantic. A sfc low is going to pop somewhere to our northwest, and there will likely be a very well-defined warm front to our north. Can't disagree that supercells will be favored along the warm front and that fast-moving bows would be possible in the warm sector. It's just a question of where the highest threats set up (and obvious potential for clouds and rain to inhibit destabilization, etc...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Oh - here we go again - SPC setting us up for disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 6, 2016 Author Share Posted June 6, 2016 It's a trap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 The GFS soundings on the COD site for Saturday are ridiculous. Has some crazy sup composite numbers and a random location sounding I looked at for 21z on Saturday in Central Maryland is showing supercell comp of 39.0, STP of 4.1, STP fixed of 7.3. It's a downright crazy sounding. No way it holds. It's all downhill from here. Unless of course we get our traditional derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Let's just say I have strong suspicious that this is overdone . Though it IS the GFS which is usually sort of paltry at this range IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 It's a trap Look away. I hate these super long term threats. give me a good old slight to start the day becoming mod hashed risk by noon update. Those are way more enjoyable EDIT: I do enjoy tracking weekend threats much more, so i guess its not all bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 It's a trap Admiral Akbar agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 not gonna lie -- i'll be pissed if i missed another derecho event. Will be in the Cape May area Thursday night to Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 And just like that - 12z GFS isn't like 6z at all. Expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 And just like that - 12z GFS isn't like 6z at all. Expected.Yep, Saturday Afternoon instead of Upper 60s to Low 70s Dew Points, 1.8-2.1" PWAT. 12z has Lower 50s Dew Points and PWAT's around 0.8". Stick with Euro for severe weather threats. Meanwhile GGEM goes to a 6z GFS like solution. Wacky models... >>>well really it's "pushed back" on the GFS, but still rather lame this run. 12z GFS seems to like severe for the Eastern 2/3 Next Week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Yep, Saturday Afternoon instead of Upper 60s to Low 70s Dew Points, 1.8-2.1" PWAT. 12z has Lower 50s Dew Points and PWAT's around 0.8". Stick with Euro for severe weather threats. Meanwhile GGEM goes to a 6z GFS like solution. Wacky models... >>>well really it's "pushed back" on the GFS, but still rather lame this run. 12z GFS seems to like severe for the Eastern 2/3 Next Week Yeah 12z GFS sort of has an okay period of parameters but it's 15z Sunday now which would be too early for meaningful severe. I'll watch but not be invested until Thursday or Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Given what happened last week leading up to the Sunday meh, I would think people would watch it and not get too invested til something actually gets severe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 The 12z EC is much different than the GFS - strong trough approaching from the northwest much sooner than in the GFS with a deepening sfc low moving across northern New England. Still not much cape here verbatim. With lots of model uncertainty, seems tough to justify the day 5 outlook unless you're hugging the EC really tight and modifying some details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 It's still there in the D5 SPC outlook, but seems a stretch based on the current modeling. ...DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TIMING EXIST AMONG THE VARIOUSMODEL OUTPUT...A GENERAL CORRIDOR OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT ISEXPECTED TO DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS D4/FRI FROM NRN MN ACROSSMI...THEN FROM MI SEWD ACROSS PA AND INTO MD/VA ON SAT/D5. AT THISTIME...IT APPEARS THE PATTERN WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE ON SAT/D5 ASTHE SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THENERN STATES...IN TURN STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND AIDING IN FASTERSTORM MOTIONS FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND. HAVE EXPANDED AREALCOVERAGE OF THE RISK AREA A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE UNCERTAINTYGIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE. CURRENT OUTPUT SUGGESTS STORMSFORMING OVER LOWER MI OR NRN OH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING SEWDSATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUN/D6 MORNING...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEOFFSHORE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Lots of uncertainty in the details, but there is agreement that an extremely impressive trough crosses our region Saturday night with big height falls, impressive wind fields, and a strong cold front. It's hard to get nocturnal severe here, but it can happen, and this would be a setup that at least makes it a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Likely more than 150,000 people will be lining the streets of Dupont & Logan Circles on Saturday for the annual Pride Parade. Hopefully if any severe weather develops it holds off until after the parade has finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Here it is on the 12Z GFS; a bit further north than some might like, but the 850mb vort and wind are quite something (not shown - go take a look). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Looks like a good sounding at KIAD for 21z SAT from the 12z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.