AmericanWxFreak Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 skies are getting dark again This isn't obs thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 18z 4k NAM just found our Sunday afternoon storms bigtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 I'm also noticing there is a large disconnect between the level of low level directional shear on the 4 km and on the other models. Would lead me to believe that, unless there is some decent low level backing that the other models aren't really catching, tornado potential will be fairly low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 I'm also noticing there is a large disconnect between the level of low level directional shear on the 4 km and on the other models. Would lead me to believe that, unless there is some decent low level backing that the other models aren't really catching, tornado potential will be fairly low. Always better to lean damaging wind as primary threat in these parts. Lots of ifs with this setup as there always is. The Yoda in me is retreating the past year or two. I'm a little shy about jumping on board with this threat. Looks nice on paper but that doesn't get us much on game day many times. There's this though... from the 12z CIPS page - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 I'm also noticing there is a large disconnect between the level of low level directional shear on the 4 km and on the other models. Would lead me to believe that, unless there is some decent low level backing that the other models aren't really catching, tornado potential will be fairly low. What are your thoughts on the wind threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 As is always the case with our severe events there's a lot that can muddy the playing field. Ian and I were just talking a bit on Twitter about the warm front progression north. Some of the guidance kind of splits us with activity to the south and then a tor threat max to our north and east near the warm front. Though it's important to remember the warm front often doesn't get as far north as progged on the models. So perhaps that leads to DC area proper ending up closer to the warm front than suggested. I hope we get some extra clarity on this event. High bust potential as always and it's a tricky forecast. As Ian mentioned - high ceiling but there's definitely a chance of a low end event as well. In fact...my money would probably be on low end on a local level at least. I'm sure somebody in the broader region will find a way to report uber severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 What are your thoughts on the wind threat? Low level lapse rates look ok so might get some stronger gusts through downward momentum transfer, but near saturated profiles are making me question the strength of the updrafts in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 4, 2016 Author Share Posted June 4, 2016 I'm also noticing there is a large disconnect between the level of low level directional shear on the 4 km and on the other models. Would lead me to believe that, unless there is some decent low level backing that the other models aren't really catching, tornado potential will be fairly low. This kind of a weird area tho. Often these setups increase risk notably in the final 48 or even less. I hate comparing to big events because well of course. But we don't have many good events so it's hard not to. June 1 2012 was way undersold until about d1, partly because there was not a big backing signal on modeling. Partly the expectation of meager instability. In many ways this area is a good one to hug patterns in at least until you get down the short range. The synoptic look remains quite good particularly on the Euro which is never a bad one to have in your camp if you want mayhem. I'm not really sold one way or another but the sounding the NAM4k is spitting out in spots are worth noting.. we don't see that very often around here. Think it starts to break one way or another more convincingly soon anyway.. wouldn't be surprised if we build toward the high end idea at this point. Details still very TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 This kind of a weird area tho. Often these setups increase risk notably in the final 48 or even less. I hate comparing to big events because well of course. But we don't have many good events so it's hard not to. June 1 2012 was way undersold until about d1, partly because there was not a big backing signal on modeling. Partly the expectation of meager instability. In many ways this area is a good one to hug patterns in at least until you get down the short range. The synoptic look remains quite good particularly on the Euro which is never a bad one to have in your camp if you want mayhem. I'm not really sold one way or another but the sounding the NAM4k is spitting out in spots are worth noting.. we don't see that very often around here. Think it starts to break one way or another more convincingly soon anyway.. wouldn't be surprised if we build toward the high end idea at this point. Details still very TBD. OMG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Ian has me all kinds of fuzzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 WxWatcher Prediction System™ might be off the charts if this keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 4, 2016 Author Share Posted June 4, 2016 Ian has me all kinds of fuzzy. It's a tough one... but really all of them are here hah. People look for perfect too much when we almost never have that. There are a few failure points though.. would like to see 12k start to come around at 0z at least. Euro looks pretty good to me all around which helps build my confidence. I think it tends to underdo instability overall as well. But synoptically it's close to ideal. It actually sort of has a lee reflection late day but loses it at 0z.. that's often key and part of the reason threats ramp up in closing as it seems to be often missed in lead up. But this is a strong sys with a good look at a climo favored time. All signs for go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 OMG Wedges for all! The Reed Timmer and Wx Channel hype train has already left the station, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 The ONE thing that is keeping me a little tempered right now is SPC (more superstitious than scientific). We've seen SPC use threatening language like this at leads a bunch of times for it to bust as we close. It's always a bigger let down when we reduce the risk as we close vs ramp up. Having SPC so bullish at long leads is "troubling" to me in terms of the potential let down. Keeping my Yoda senses in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Also...I think if we have a storm thread on Sunday Ian should start it. Anybody else starting it is asking for a failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 The ONE thing that is keeping me a little tempered right now is SPC (more superstitious than scientific). We've seen SPC use threatening language like this at leads a bunch of times for it to bust as we close. It's always a bigger let down when we reduce the risk as we close vs ramp up. Having SPC so bullish at long leads is "troubling" to me in terms of the potential let down. Keeping my Yoda senses in check. ^this. It's like the old SPC Day 2 MOD Bust rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Also...I think if we have a storm thread on Sunday Ian should start it. Anybody else starting it is asking for a failure. I vote that if anyone other than Ion starts the thread, they get banned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 4, 2016 Author Share Posted June 4, 2016 The ONE thing that is keeping me a little tempered right now is SPC (more superstitious than scientific). We've seen SPC use threatening language like this at leads a bunch of times for it to bust as we close. It's always a bigger let down when we reduce the risk as we close vs ramp up. Having SPC so bullish at long leads is "troubling" to me in terms of the potential let down. Keeping my Yoda senses in check.Just remember 30/enh used to be slight. Not too often we got that at d3 and very infrequent beyond but about where we were odds wise in other big events at this point.. And in theory forecasting is still improving fairly rapidly. The wording is rather bullish tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 4, 2016 Author Share Posted June 4, 2016 I vote that if anyone other than Ion starts the thread, they get banned.Except my declaration above probably busted it. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Almost time for the 00z cycle to start. Let's hope for clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC805 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-040930-CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTHISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-805 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THECHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES INCENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OFCOLUMBIA..DAY ONE...TONIGHTNO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAYSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMSMAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES ANDHEAVY RAINFALL. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZEDFLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL AS URBAN AREAS..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 That SREF map is less of a split at least. No huge numbers showing up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Sunday potential won't be clear until we see what the clouds+rain are doing that morning... too much junk floating about here and there to have any sort of confidence in either direction. I think the Enhanced is a decent middle-of-the-road forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Sunday potential won't be clear until we see what the clouds+rain are doing that morning... too much junk floating about here and there to have any sort of confidence in either direction. I think the Enhanced is a decent middle-of-the-road forecast. Completely agree...the extent of the threat is all going to depend on how everything evolves Sunday morning. What we can depict now is that the low-level winds will be backed in the vicinity of the warm front (as always) and shear should be pretty strong and increasing as the trough amplifies. Shear will not be a problem. If morning crap can clear out in time and we get some drying in the mid-levels to occur, this coupled with the amplifying trough would work to steepen the lapse rates (which the GFS seems to like). While they wouldn't be impressive (6-6.5 C/KM), when coupled with near or low 70's dews and temps perhaps near 80F or slightly higher would boost enough cape. Some other pluses include the GFS hinting a backed flow...don't see that too much this far out on the GFS and 4K NAM hinting at more discrete early on before joining into a cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 00z 4km NAM at DCA at 21z SUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 ^^doesn't that sounding indicate more of a wind threat vs tor w that inverted v?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 ^^doesn't that sounding indicate more of a wind threat vs tor w that inverted v?? Yes, but tornadoes are more fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Any guesses on new spc outlook? I'm thinking they stick with the ENH but pull back on the wording a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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