Ian Posted May 3, 2016 Author Share Posted May 3, 2016 I love those graphics. That's exactly what it looked like in the sky. During approach the top of the storm clouds were out in front and they were dark but high altitude. Didn't look intimidating at all. There wasn't a shelf or line underneath either. At least where I could see anyways. Wasn't much wind with it either. For as nasty as the hail was, the storm didn't pack much of a punch in the wind/lightning dept. The southern one was a true classic. But I think that split was a supercell as well.. if for nothing else you're geberally not going to get that size of hail from a regular storm. Hodographs were a straight line which explains the splits. Definitely a lot of vigorous updrafts until it all started merging up. A bunch of them were spitting out lightning in the no rain area.. ripping updraft. I was legit excited which is rare for me around here with storms hah. I tend to think this will be a good storm year overall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Slightly off topic, earlier in the day I noticed gravity waves on the vis satellite across the area before the thunderstorms popped up when the area was clearing out from being overcast. Would the presence of them possibly helped to intensify or explain the unexpected nature of the thunderstorms yesterday? Honestly, this is one of the first things I look for on visible satellite when the threat is there for strong to severe storms. I became aware of the possible interactions of gravity waves and the initialization of storms on April 27, 2011. Since then, it's been a pretty decent indicator as to where storms are going to fire or get stronger. Of course, other ingredients have to line up for storms to maintain themselves. Here's a good presentation I found a while ago highlighting some of the possible interactions gravity waves have on storms: https://www.atmos.colostate.edu/anniversary/anniversaryPresentations/Knupp_Presentation.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 I tend to think this will be a good storm year overall.. We seem to get on hot streaks and cold streaks in general around here. Probably because the MA is basically sandwiched between 2 climate zones. I know you could probably say everywhere has the same type runs with storms (winter and summer) but we tend to go through booms and busts with snow and severe and "normal" is less common. haha I think you're probably right about this year. It has the feel of being active for lack of better analysis. I'm pretty much expecting some sort of tropical event(s) in our area too. You can only go so long on the east coast before the target comes back. Heck, FL hasn't had a landfall since Wilma in 05 and NC has had only 2 in the last 12 years. It's been fairly quiet in general since 2005. WD index running high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Penny size hail in Spotsylvania Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Completely agree. I think this is a fun summer. Talk dirty to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 This event makes me think of an event that hit the DC/Balto area on July 10, 1975 that included flooded streets in east Baltimore and an anamalous hailstorm around Poolesville, MD that apparently "accumulated" nearly a foot deep in parts.....there was an article about this storm complex in the Weatherwise magazine I am pretty sure I still have the copy around here somewhere. I collected many years worth of that magazine in fact.....not sure if they even put that magazine out anymore now that I am thinking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Pretty neat story Sparky...showing your age a little. 1975 there was also a tropical system that dumped 14 inches of rain in Westminster since we're talking local history. TS Eloise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 A foot of hail would be incredible to experience. But it still doesn't beat the foot of ZR I've been chasing. Love local wx history, Sparky. Thanks for sharing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 The southern one was a true classic. But I think that split was a supercell as well.. if for nothing else you're geberally not going to get that size of hail from a regular storm. Hodographs were a straight line which explains the splits. Definitely a lot of vigorous updrafts until it all started merging up. A bunch of them were spitting out lightning in the no rain area.. ripping updraft. I was legit excited which is rare for me around here with storms hah. I tend to think this will be a good storm year overall.. It seems like our best busts in the + direction tend to be May/June with atmosphere still needs to get over winter chill. Strong surface heating must be part of it. Obviously models should figure this in with forecasts of temp, instability etc..but it makes sense when you think about it. Monday also had the perfect theta-e injection right into DC combined with increasing shear. As you know, it's like a switch. Once it reached a critical point....boom. There is no ramping up...when it goes..it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Just my own tidbit: Largest hail we saw in Burke was a little over 1". No wind to speak of, and the rain was no more than 0.75". Interesting spring day, if nothing else. Glad not to have to deal with hail damage like other folks. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 I found this to be a fairly interesting satellite image of the supercell (+ other storms?) (May 2) - image tweeted by Scott Bachmeier (@CIMMS_Satellite) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 12z NAM makes things a lil interesting tomorrow between 18z and 00z... esp at 21z. I could see a SLGT risk coming tommorrow instead of the MARG we are currently in... both 4km NAM and NAM look okay to decent based off of sim reflectivity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Hmmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 4k NAM looks decent for around 5pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Ready for my gusty shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 12z 4k actually looks like something more than gusty showers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 14, 2016 Author Share Posted May 14, 2016 Main interest is perhap shelf potential. Usually with a good temp/dp spread you maximize outflow. Could be some iso wind damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 I cut my grass. It won't rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 15z HRRRRRRR is decent around 19z... brings a squall line through... at least thats what it looks like on sim radar ETA: 15z RAP looks okay to decent as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Looks more robust than prior runs. Setting my bar at hearing thunder. 16z HRRRRRRRRRRRRR looks like 15z... perhaps a tad better... so hopefully we get some good storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 IN-FREAKING-COMING.... Radar shows 35-40 DBZ embedded dual squall lines bearing down and zipping along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 I cut my grass. It won't rain I cut mine also. 6 days worth of growth and it still clumped in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Is this activity supposed to form ahead of this wedge of rain? It's getting pretty close and still looks pretty meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 35+ mph gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Pretty gusty out. Leaves blowing around a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 still at least a small chance of thunder if we can get a line to form on the actual front. it's trying to do that right now to our west, although it looks much better north of the Mason-Dixon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 14, 2016 Share Posted May 14, 2016 Pity warning. 899 WUUS51 KLWX 142255 SVRLWX MDC017-VAC047-059-061-153-179-142345- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0044.160514T2255Z-160514T2345Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 655 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND... SOUTH CENTRAL FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... SOUTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... NORTHERN STAFFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... CENTRAL CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... SOUTHEASTERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 745 PM EDT * AT 654 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BEALETON...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF WARRENTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES TO FALL. THIS COULD INJURE THOSE OUTDOORS...AS WELL AS DAMAGE HOMES AND VEHICLES. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME BLOCKED BY DOWNED TREES. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... STAFFORD...DALE CITY...WOODBRIDGE...QUANTICO...AQUIA CREEK...MONTCLAIR... TRIANGLE...DUMFRIES...BEALETON...CHERRY HILL...INDEPENDENT HILL...MASON NECK...OPAL...REMINGTON...CATLETT...CALVERTON...MIDLAND...BRISTERSBURG... SUMERDUCK AND CASANOVA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... GET INDOORS TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM WIND AND LIGHTNING. TREES AROUND YOU MAY BE DOWNED FROM DAMAGING WINDS...SO IF YOU ARE NEAR LARGE TREES...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. DON'T DRIVE UNDERNEATH TREES OR IN WOODED AREAS UNTIL THE THREAT HAS PASSED. && LAT...LON 3847 7794 3867 7785 3866 7718 3862 7719 3862 7720 3864 7721 3865 7719 3865 7723 3863 7725 3856 7725 3854 7728 3850 7730 3850 7727 3858 7720 3837 7723 3841 7727 3849 7727 3849 7731 3846 7733 3837 7730 TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 276DEG 28KT 3857 7775 HAIL...1.00IN WIND...60MPH $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 312 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND... NORTHWESTERN ST. MARYS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND... KING GEORGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 400 PM EDT * AT 311 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LA PLATA... MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES TO FALL. THIS COULD INJURE THOSE OUTDOORS...AS WELL AS DAMAGE HOMES AND VEHICLES. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME BLOCKED BY DOWNED TREES. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WALDORF...LA PLATA...KING GEORGE...DAHLGREN...POPES CREEK...SAINT CHARLES...WICOMICO...HUGHESVILLE...CHARLOTTE HALL...COBB ISLAND... BRYANTOWN...ROCK POINT...BEL ALTON...FAULKNER...ROLLINS FORK...SHILOH... TOMPKINSVILLE...NINDE...SWAN POINT AND ISSUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 Perhaps meh severe Friday... then LWX AFD hints at maybe a better threat towards the end of the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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