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Spring severe weather chatter


Ian

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I love those graphics. That's exactly what it looked like in the sky. During approach the top of the storm clouds were out in front and they were dark but high altitude. Didn't look intimidating at all. There wasn't a shelf or line underneath either. At least where I could see anyways. Wasn't much wind with it either. For as nasty as the hail was, the storm didn't pack much of a punch  in the wind/lightning dept.

The southern one was a true classic. But I think that split was a supercell as well.. if for nothing else you're geberally not going to get that size of hail from a regular storm. Hodographs were a straight line which explains the splits. Definitely a lot of vigorous updrafts until it all started merging up. A bunch of them were spitting out lightning in the no rain area.. ripping updraft. I was legit excited which is rare for me around here with storms hah.

 

I tend to think this will be a good storm year overall..

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Slightly off topic, earlier in the day I noticed gravity waves on the vis satellite across the area before the thunderstorms popped up when the area was clearing out from being overcast. Would the presence of them possibly helped to intensify or explain the unexpected nature of the thunderstorms yesterday?

Honestly, this is one of the first things I look for on visible satellite when the threat is there for strong to severe storms. I became aware of the possible interactions of gravity waves and the initialization of storms on April 27, 2011. Since then, it's been a pretty decent indicator as to where storms are going to fire or get stronger. Of course, other ingredients have to line up for storms to maintain themselves. Here's a good presentation I found a while ago highlighting some of the possible interactions gravity waves have on storms: https://www.atmos.colostate.edu/anniversary/anniversaryPresentations/Knupp_Presentation.pdf  

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I tend to think this will be a good storm year overall..

 

We seem to get on hot streaks and cold streaks in general around here. Probably because the MA is basically sandwiched between 2 climate zones. I know you could probably say everywhere has the same type runs with storms (winter and summer) but we tend to go through booms and busts with snow and severe and "normal" is less common. haha

 

I think you're probably right about this year. It has the feel of being active for lack of better analysis. I'm pretty much expecting some sort of tropical event(s) in our area too. You can only go so long on the east coast before the target comes back. Heck, FL hasn't had a landfall since Wilma in 05 and NC has had only 2 in the last 12 years. It's been fairly quiet in general since 2005. WD index running high. 

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This event makes me think of an event that hit the DC/Balto area on July 10, 1975 that included flooded streets in east Baltimore and an anamalous hailstorm around Poolesville, MD that apparently "accumulated" nearly a foot deep in parts.....there was an article about this storm complex in the Weatherwise magazine I am pretty sure I still have the copy around here somewhere.  I collected many years worth of that magazine in fact.....not sure if they even put that magazine out anymore now that I am thinking about it.

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The southern one was a true classic. But I think that split was a supercell as well.. if for nothing else you're geberally not going to get that size of hail from a regular storm. Hodographs were a straight line which explains the splits. Definitely a lot of vigorous updrafts until it all started merging up. A bunch of them were spitting out lightning in the no rain area.. ripping updraft. I was legit excited which is rare for me around here with storms hah.

 

I tend to think this will be a good storm year overall..

 

It seems like our best busts in the + direction tend to be May/June with atmosphere still needs to get over winter chill. Strong surface heating must be part of it. Obviously models should figure this in with forecasts of temp, instability etc..but it makes sense when you think about it. Monday also had the perfect theta-e injection right into DC combined with increasing shear. As you know, it's like a switch. Once it reached a critical point....boom. There is no ramping up...when it goes..it goes. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Pity warning.

899

WUUS51 KLWX 142255

SVRLWX

MDC017-VAC047-059-061-153-179-142345-

/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0044.160514T2255Z-160514T2345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

655 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

WEST CENTRAL CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...

SOUTH CENTRAL FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

SOUTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

NORTHERN STAFFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

CENTRAL CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

SOUTHEASTERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 654 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BEALETON...OR

10 MILES SOUTH OF WARRENTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES

TO FALL. THIS COULD INJURE THOSE OUTDOORS...AS WELL AS

DAMAGE HOMES AND VEHICLES. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME BLOCKED BY

DOWNED TREES. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

STAFFORD...DALE CITY...WOODBRIDGE...QUANTICO...AQUIA CREEK...MONTCLAIR...

TRIANGLE...DUMFRIES...BEALETON...CHERRY HILL...INDEPENDENT HILL...MASON

NECK...OPAL...REMINGTON...CATLETT...CALVERTON...MIDLAND...BRISTERSBURG...

SUMERDUCK AND CASANOVA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET INDOORS TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM WIND AND LIGHTNING. TREES AROUND

YOU MAY BE DOWNED FROM DAMAGING WINDS...SO IF YOU ARE NEAR LARGE

TREES...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. DON'T DRIVE

UNDERNEATH TREES OR IN WOODED AREAS UNTIL THE THREAT HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3847 7794 3867 7785 3866 7718 3862 7719

3862 7720 3864 7721 3865 7719 3865 7723

3863 7725 3856 7725 3854 7728 3850 7730

3850 7727 3858 7720 3837 7723 3841 7727

3849 7727 3849 7731 3846 7733 3837 7730

TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 276DEG 28KT 3857 7775

HAIL...1.00IN

WIND...60MPH

$$

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  • 2 weeks later...


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

312 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...

NORTHWESTERN ST. MARYS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...

KING GEORGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 311 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LA PLATA...

MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES

TO FALL. THIS COULD INJURE THOSE OUTDOORS...AS WELL AS

DAMAGE HOMES AND VEHICLES. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME BLOCKED BY

DOWNED TREES. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

WALDORF...LA PLATA...KING GEORGE...DAHLGREN...POPES CREEK...SAINT

CHARLES...WICOMICO...HUGHESVILLE...CHARLOTTE HALL...COBB ISLAND...

BRYANTOWN...ROCK POINT...BEL ALTON...FAULKNER...ROLLINS FORK...SHILOH...

TOMPKINSVILLE...NINDE...SWAN POINT AND ISSUE.

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