Ian Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 First thread had too many thunderstorms. I'll keep the first post a running list of bigger events: February 24 2016 - Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47932-feb-24-2016-severe-weather-outbreak/ May 2 2016 - Supercellpalooza in the DC area http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47947-spring-severe-weather-chatter/?p=4102810 June 5 - Enhanced risk DC split http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/48379-june-4-5-2016-rain-and-storms-obs-and-discussion/ June 16-17 - Was that a derecho west of town? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/48424-june-16th-17th-floodmageddon/ And some eye candy. The god of fast-moving terrible storms to do anything but lose power during, encased in 100 degree heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 May the Ian thread deliver us much excitement from now until fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Do we have anyone dedicated enough to keep track of the number of severe warnings we get and how many of those verify? I'm curious.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 26, 2016 Author Share Posted February 26, 2016 Do we have anyone dedicated enough to keep track of the number of severe warnings we get and how many of those verify? I'm curious.... Could pull them from IEM.. the warnings at least. Verify not sure on automated options, might be a pain. Though I think many/most svr probably verify here.. it takes like 40 mph winds to bring down trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 shameless plug -- tornado outbreaks for 2016 http://www.ustornadoes.com/2016/02/29/the-largest-tornado-outbreaks-of-2016/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Sneaky severe chance Friday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 agreed. 18z NAM nest looked good with reflectivity; 00z doesn't look as good, but it looks like there will some cape available, and an intense jet streak will be approaching. Sneaky severe chance Friday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 agreed. 18z NAM nest looked good with reflectivity; 00z doesn't look as good, but it looks like there will some cape available, and an intense jet streak will be approaching. 00z NAM soundings looked decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Some sun poking out now.... 12z NAM soundings (21z at KIAD/EZF/BWI/DCA in particular) decent for maybe a few severe storms this afternoon into the evening LWX late morning disco: DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE WARMAIRMASS WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THISEVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 12Z MODIFIED KIAD RAOB SHOWSAROUND 1KJ/KG OF MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE IS SKINNY AND DRY AIRALOFT MAY ENTRAIN INTO UPDRAFTS KEEPING MOST STORMS BELOW SEVERELEVELS. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONG AND WITH DRY AIRALOFT IF ANY REFLECTIVITY CORES DO DEVELOP...THEN LOCALLY DAMAGINGWIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ASTRONGER THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGEMOUNTAINS. DO THINK THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BELIMITED...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DUE TO WEAK FORCING ALONG THEFRONT AND THE STRONG DRY SLOT MOVING OVERHEAD AT THE SAME TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Pity mseo: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2016/md0327.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Pity mseo: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2016/md0327.html Yes, but at least we got a quick mention in the 1630 OTLK about possible upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 New event. High Wind Watch from 4/2/2016 10:00 PM to 4/3/2016 12:00 PM EDT for Carroll County, Montgomery County. More information. New event. Freeze Watch from 4/3/2016 12:00 AM to 10:00 AM EDT for Carroll County, Montgomery County. More information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 418 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 VAC003-125-540-012030- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-160401T2030Z/ CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE VA-ALBEMARLE VA-NELSON VA- 418 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN ALBEMARLE AND EAST CENTRAL NELSON COUNTIES AND THE SOUTHERN CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE... AT 417 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SCHUYLER...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHARLOTTESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CHARLOTTESVILLE...SCHUYLER...SCOTTSVILLE...ESMONT...KEENE...KESWICK... FABER...WOODRIDGE...GLENDOWER...MONTICELLO...COVESVILLE...NORTH GARDEN... DAMON...OVERTON...SHADWELL...BOYD TAVERN AND ALBERENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Nice rumbles of thunder up my way. Nothing severe but nice to hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 449 PM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND... CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTHWESTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND... SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND... SOUTHERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTHEASTERN LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 515 PM EDT * AT 449 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR POINT OF ROCKS...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARRY GROVE STADIUM...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...DAMASCUS...HARRY GROVE STADIUM...ELDERSBURG... BALLENGER CREEK...MOUNT AIRY...BRUNSWICK...WALKERSVILLE...SYKESVILLE... BRADDOCK HEIGHTS...OAKLAND...NEW MARKET...CLOVER HILL...POINT OF ROCKS... LINGANORE-BARTONSVILLE...DISCOVERY-SPRING GARDEN...GREEN VALLEY... GAMBER AND ADAMSTOWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 The storm that is warned over here near Frederick is rolling through. A lot of noise and rain but nothing much more than that. It moved through here pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 2, 2016 Author Share Posted April 2, 2016 Off to a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 24, 2016 Share Posted April 24, 2016 Day 3 marginal risk from SPC... looks meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 12z NAM soundings look good enough for some isolated severe storms tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC301 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016.SYNOPSIS...&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE IS OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVESTHROUGH THE UPPER MID-WEST THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SRLY FLOW ANDMOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE U70S/L80STHIS AFTERNOON. A CU FIELD HAS FORMED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFEW SHOWERS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER DRY AIR AND LOW DEWPTSWILL LIKELY KEEP THE COVERAGE ISOLATED.HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSUREMOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILLSLOWLY APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NORTH. MOST SHOWERSARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MD/PA BORDER OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DEPENDINGON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TODAYACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY SEE MORE ACTIVITY MOVEINTO NRN MD. KEPT CHANCES LOW AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE CLOSELYMONITORED.&&.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...AN ACTIVE PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSSPA. THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH BREEZY SW FLOWDURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND 70S IN THE MTNS BYAFTERNOON. SW FLOW WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPTS UP ON TUESDAY SO IT WILLFEEL WARMER. AN UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD BYTUESDAY AFTERNOON AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-40KTS.THIS COUPLED WITH SBCAPE OF 1-2K K/JG WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVEDEVELOPMENT. THE BEST FORCING SEEMS TO BE ACROSS PA WITH SOMEACTIVITY DROPPING INTO MD SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERESTORMS TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE LWX CWA. DMGWINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT IN STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 25, 2016 Share Posted April 25, 2016 Meh. Business as usual. At least it will be something to track I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Slight risk for some of us up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 HRRR doesnt look terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 i just want some rain, maybe a rumble of thunder or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Slight Risk expanded further west. Still a marginal as heck setup: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day1otlk_20160426_1300.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Slight Risk expanded further west. Still a marginal as heck setup: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day1otlk_20160426_1300.html 06z NAM soundings are decent enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 Slt expanded through DC, NOVA. SPC - ...MID ATLC...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO AFTN ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...IN PLUME OF DCVA IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING MID/UPPER PERTURBATION. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ESEWD...OFFERING SPORADIC SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. CLEARING BEHIND CLOUD/PRECIP REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT/OH CONVECTION SHOULD PERMIT POCKETS OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION...LEADING TO WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER BENEATH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. NEAR-SFC FLOW WILL BE VEERED WITH STGWLY COMPONENT...AND DEEP-LAYER PROFILES ESSENTIALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...LIMITING CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CINH SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE FORSEVERAL HOURS AMIDST FAVORABLE SPEED SHEAR. POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER DARK AS COLD FROPA OCCURS OVER LARGER SHARE OF AREA AND REMAINING SFC WARM SECTOR COOLS DIABATICALLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 06z NAM soundings are decent enough When isn't the NAM decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 26, 2016 Share Posted April 26, 2016 When isn't the NAM decent. 12z GFS sounding at KIAD/KDCA at 18z is decent as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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