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2/24/16 Severe Thunderstorm Potential


bluewave

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Heard there was a 66 mph gust in Long Beach. When that bow moved across around midnight I guess? And yes this is the most impressive wind event to me since that little zephyr from a few Octobers ago.

Innnnnnsane in wantagh trees bending branches cracking and breaking with the unusual wind direction. Best thunderstorm winds here since the Labor Day derecho

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Heard there was a 66 mph gust in Long Beach. When that bow moved across around midnight I guess? And yes this is the most impressive wind event to me since that little zephyr from a few Octobers ago.

Yea Bill. It was one of the strongest thunderstorms I've had in my particular location in the last 20 years.

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Craziest weather since sandy at the shore. Was out (don't judge me) judging a karaoke contest in Asbury park. The 100 mph warning popped up on my phone went out the back deck to see what was going on. Saw the clouds boiling and racing due north. Sporadic lightning and then boom-transformers popping all over, closest to us was about 200 feet away with sparks landing closer. Prolly 70 mph wind gust made it out of the storm to the ground. In the same storm we have trees on homes in Neptune nearby.

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i was surprised given the colder ocean temps.. that the storm held together over long island...

 

 

The strongest instability was elevated, so the surface being cold didn't matter. If these were surface-based storms, they wouldn't have had a chance.

 

If anything the water provided less friction, allowing stronger winds to mix down as a result. 

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The strongest instability was elevated, so the surface being cold didn't matter. If these were surface-based storms, they wouldn't have had a chance.

If anything the water provided less friction, allowing stronger winds to mix down as a result.

Thanks Doug. Awesome event.

Post a winter grade while you're here.

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Thanks Doug. Awesome event.

Post a winter grade while you're here.

 

Just did ;) 

This almost could've raised my winter grade even though it isn't remotely wintry

 

Haha yeah I was considering factoring it in as well, but I couldn't quite factor this in as part of my "winter" grade. It goes in my separate convection grade. Granted, though, we're not going to get a synoptic system of this kind in the warm season, so perhaps we needed this to be a winter entity for us to do so well...

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The strongest low level jet was along the coast too....80-90 knots only 1500 ft above ground level. If the low level inversion is weak then no problem mixing down anywhere from 1/2 to 2/3 of that. If you have a MAUL in place as with Sandy then mix it all down...

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The strongest low level jet was along the coast too....80-90 knots only 1500 ft above ground level. If the low level inversion is weak then no problem mixing down anywhere from 1/2 to 2/3 of that. If you have a MAUL in place as with Sandy then mix it all down...

Wow....I haven't even heard of a MAUL since Sandy. The VWP out of EWR tells the whole story

Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk

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I'm not saying there was a MAUL involved here, just commenting on gust potential in different low level stability regimes.

 

Wow....I haven't even heard of a MAUL since Sandy. The VWP out of EWR tells the whole story

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I'm not saying there was a MAUL involved here, just commenting on gust potential in different low level stability regimes.

Oh yes, I know.

Just saying it's been a long time since I've seen that even brought up. Didn't learn that one in class. Very interesting though.

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I'm not saying there was a MAUL involved here, just commenting on gust potential in different low level stability regimes.

It was very gusty so it's was having trouble with the inversion. It was the pure strength of the winds aloft that did it. The clouds were racing as fast as anything I have seen since sandy

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No MAUL in the OKX 00Z sounding but there is a pretty decent surface-based inversion:

 

post-52-0-99730300-1456382372_thumb.gif

 

Have to think that some combo of mechanical turbulence due to the very strong vertical wind shear, and wave ducting via the inversion topped by that moist adiabatic layer, helped set up the strong wind potential outside of any convection.

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It would be interesting if we had an 06z observed sounding, as 00z was still pretty early in the night. Tonight's 00z NAM soundings for NYC valid for 03z and 06z do show MAULs.

 

At 03z, it looks like a very unstable MAUL, albeit a very shallow one, between ~820mb and ~780mb:

 

post-73-0-24553900-1456383652_thumb.gif

 

 

At 06z, the MAUL isn't as unstable, but it's a much larger layer -- between 925mb and 800mb. By definition, it should be a MAUL considering the lapse rates are still well steeper than the moist-adiabatic lines.

 

post-73-0-37264100-1456383877_thumb.gif

 

Of course, these are NAM projections, so this doesn't mean there was definitely a MAUL. 

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0111 AM TSTM WND GST STONY BROOK 40.91N 73.13W

02/25/2016 M67 MPH SUFFOLK NY TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL BRANCHES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF

WEST MEADOW BEACH

TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

1055 PM TSTM WND GST LARCHMONT 40.93N 73.75W

02/24/2016 M67 MPH WESTCHESTER NY WXFLOW

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