bluewave Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I figured that this potential deserved a thread of its own. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html ...ERN SEABOARD FROM SERN NY SWD TO FL...A BAND OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IS MOVING ACROSS ERN SC/SERNGA/NRN AND WRN FL ATTM...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT S OF THEDEEP TN VALLEY LOW. SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO ONGOING ACROSSPARTS OF THE CAROLINAS/VA...IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ATOP A STOUTWEDGE OF COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE.STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ACT TO GRADUALLY ERODE THEDAMMING AIRMASS FROM SE-NW TODAY...AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES FROMTHE W. WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING CAN OCCUR...MODESTDESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS -- POSSIBLY WITHIN...BUT LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THEONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING NNEWD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A VERYINTENSE WIND FIELD SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...STORMS WILL RAPIDLYSTRENGTHEN/ORGANIZE -- INTO BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINESEGMENTS. THE GREATEST RISK/HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SIGNIFICANT SEVEREWEATHER APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS ERN NC INTO SERN VA...WHERE THEDAMMING AIRMASS IS MORE LIKELY TO ERODE MOST FULLY AND MOST QUICKLY.HERE...ISOLATED/POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONGWITH DAMAGING WINDS.FARTHER N...SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS PA ANDINTO THE CATSKILLS. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BANDS OFINCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEAR LIKELY TO EVOLVE. WHILEINSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK -- AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATEDABOVE A SHALLOW COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER...STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDSUGGESTS THAT WINDS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS WILLOCCUR AT LEAST LOCALLY. THE THREAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL ENDFROM W TO E THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST...GOSS/ROGERS.. 02/24/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Most of the high res models have a wicked looking squall line approaching Western areas but weakening as it moves East. Here is the 00z SPC WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 There could be multiple squall lines today. Not just a one and done deal. Some of the guidance looks quite unstable. The 12z NAM also has PWAT's approaching 1.5"+ tonight, especially SW of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Any tornado potential up here? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Severe thunderstorms in February? I suppose if it's not going to snow we may as well get a thunderstorm to make things exciting. Someone wake me up from this nightmare of a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Severe thunderstorms in February? I suppose if it's not going to snow we may as well get a thunderstorm to make things exciting. Someone wake me up from this nightmare of a winter. Tons of warmth and energy due to El Nino and changing climate. Severe weather season this Spring and Summer may be more vigorous than usual I think. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 Any tornado potential up here? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk About 2% up your way with closer to 5% over Central New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Look at these lifted index's. Pretty insane for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 About 2% up your way with closer to 5% over Central New Jersey. day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif Thanks. Two percent up here is still mind boggling for late February. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall incoming with the first significant wave of precip. Leading edge of the warm moist air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I'm not sure if this recent trend to keep the convection West is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 If this not a sign of winter is over...nothing is! It's raining all the way up in northern NY state. These are spring rains bringing a change of season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 If this not a sign of winter is over...nothing is! It's raining all the way up in northern NY state. These are spring rains bringing a change of season. Flood watches in northern Maine too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Flood watches in northern Maine too... I'm surprised we don't have at least some flash flood watches in Western areas. Some areas could pick up a quick 2-3" with an already saturated ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Flood watches in northern Maine too... At least we're not alone in this nightmare of a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Near record PWATS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I'm surprised we don't have at least some flash flood watches in Western areas. Some areas could pick up a quick 2-3" with an already saturated ground. Even here-models have given CT 2-3 inches in 12 hrs or so consistently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Even here-models have given CT 2-3 inches in 12 hrs or so consistently The HRRR has been insisting that most of the activity misses the metro region to the NW. I really don't see that happening. The cold front is coming East and we have abundant moisture and lift out ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Tropical downpour here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 30% severe wind upgrade for Eastern PA from slight to enhanced. FARTHER N...SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN FURTHERINCREASED/EXPANDED ACROSS THE MD/PA REGION WITH THE EXPECTATION FORAFTERNOON CONVECTION TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A RAPIDLY PROGRESSINGSQUALL LINE. WHILE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK -- AND POSSIBLYSLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER...STRENGTHOF THE WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT WINDS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDINGSEVERE LEVELS WILL OCCUR AT LEAST LOCALLY. THE THREAT ACROSS THEENTIRE AREA WILL END FROM W TO E THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTMOVES OFF THE COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pequest Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 42 degrees just had a clap of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Ripping rain in Nassau. If only this was snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Up to 0.57" since midnight at work with periodic downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 12z suite backed off the bigger rain amounts and also the stronger storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 12z suite backed off the bigger rain amounts and also the stronger storms. RGEM Still quite wet and some of the rain has fallen, areas have .25-.50 already so that will be taken out of course - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 RGEM Still quite wet and some of the rain has fallen, areas have .25-.50 already so that will be taken out of course - The wet models were showing 2"-3" though. Now the consensus is back down to .75"-1.5" and the heavy t-storms look to weaken on the 12z suite as the line heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 12z suite backed off the bigger rain amounts and also the stronger storms. It shifted things West of the city which is fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 The Euro is still a widespread 1-2" with locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Up to 0.68" at Ramsey since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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