chase_stormz Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Low on the 20z RAP barely moves from 14-18 hours near KY/IL line. That would sit the deformation band over the STL metro up into Central IL for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Low on the 20z RAP barely moves from 14-18 hours near KY/IL line. Images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 That would sit the deformation band over the STL metro up into Central IL for quite some time. I think St. Louis is sitting pretty right now. GFS concurs 14 hours. 18 hours. Deformation band from your place to Hoosier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 West shift has me in the heavy snow band. New AFD mentioned near blizzard conditions, also saying the bold air is getting pulled in more quickly. Might be the best storm I've had in a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Strong winter storm system will be ongoing at the start ofWednesday across the area. A couple of the 12z models have trended west with the track of the system and resulting heavy snow band. Newer 18z model runs have trended more west and this has lead to an adjustment to snowfall totals and locations for the subsequent warning and advisories in this forecast. System is forecast to be very dynamic and now looks like colder air comes in quite quickly and should be through most of the cwa by morning and then continue to push east by early afternoon...with last place to change over to snow will be the LWV area. Snow will be moderate to heavy at times during the day. Current indications show that heaviest snowfall will be somewhere along a line between Champaign/Danville area to Shelbyville. With the concern of the track shifting west again tonight, have pushed warning criteria snowfall west as well close to I-55. Another impact will be the very strong northerly winds tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 18z GFS is a Chicagoland jackpot .75+ also gets areas further west of the city into better action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I think St. Louis is sitting pretty right now. GFS concurs 14 hours. 18 hours. Deformation band from your place to Hoosier. Well it's nice sitting just a mere 10 miles or less to the NW of the bullseye right now Feeling pretty confident right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 My call would be 12-18 inches in Chicago, 10-15 in portions of lower Michigan north of a Jackson to Flint line although close to that line storm goes rain to snow, so best accumulations in MI around GRR to APN, and also 10-15 in s.e. corner of WI trending to 8 inches MKE and 3 inches Sheboygan. The 12-18 swath tapers to 10-15 again south-southwest of ORD but extends to STL, trend is rapidly down to 5-10 near LAF to PAH and almost zero snow in most of IN, w OH except for tail end of storm which could give 1-3 inches. In Ontario, can see how it starts with some snow, changes to ZR then all rain, back to sleet and snow. Totals something like 5 cms for London to Hamilton, 8-12 cms Toronto, heavier amounts around s Ggn Bay into central ON (20-40 cms). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 West shift has me in the heavy snow band. New AFD mentioned near blizzard conditions, also saying the bold air is getting pulled in more quickly. Might be the best storm I've had in a few years. I didn't know air could be bold. Learned something new today. Messin' Looks nasty around this time. Evening rush hour is going to be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 My call would be 12-18 inches in Chicago, 10-15 in portions of lower Michigan north of a Jackson to Flint line although close to that line storm goes rain to snow, so best accumulations in MI around GRR to APN, and also 10-15 in s.e. corner of WI trending to 8 inches MKE and 3 inches Sheboygan. The 12-18 swath tapers to 10-15 again south-southwest of ORD but extends to STL, trend is rapidly down to 5-10 near LAF to PAH and almost zero snow in most of IN, w OH except for tail end of storm which could give 1-3 inches. In Ontario, can see how it starts with some snow, changes to ZR then all rain, back to sleet and snow. Totals something like 5 cms for London to Hamilton, 8-12 cms Toronto, heavier amounts around s Ggn Bay into central ON (20-40 cms). lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Sv snow maps have 8-10 for the Chicago area and immediate suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I didn't know air could be bold. Learned something new today. Looks nasty around this time. Ever been so excited you don't proof read your posts? Yeah that's me right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Roger Smith chuckin' em deep. Go bold or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Would love to see Roger's call come true. If it were just colder - No sign that the GFS is caving to the EURO or GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 So far, I'm not seeing any indication that the strong convection firing over LA is affecting the sfc low movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Would love to see Roger's call come true. If it were just colder - No sign that the GFS is caving to the EURO or GEM. Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Fwiw I think LOT has a brewing public perception problem, event way under the radar in the city, especially considering potential rush hour timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 DTX is seeing some of the same things I am seeing with respect to wet bulbing and evaporative cooling: A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST REMAINS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITHHIGHLY SENSITIVE THERMAL FIELDS...AS THE INTERACTION OF THREE KEYUPPER LEVEL PLAYERS TAKES PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITHSHARP LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THECWA...AS EXCELLENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS IN MID LEVELS.SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH MINNESOTA EXTENDINGBACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND FORCE THELARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CIRCULATIONIS QUICKLY TIGHTENING UP AND WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DEEPENING OF THELOW PRESSURE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN GULF STATES. THE BIG ISSUE ISTHE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVERVALLEY AT 12Z WEDNESDAY QUICKLY UNRAVELS AND EXPANDS OUTWARD...WITHTHE EXCELLENT FORCING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL PV FILAMENTADVANCING NORTH...ARRIVING WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PW VALUESPUSHING TOWARD 0.75 INCHES...AND 700 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY RUNNINGAROUND 4 G/KG...AND EVEN MAYBE APPROACHING 5 G/KG DOWNRIVER BY EARLYAFTERNOON. WITH THAT MOISTURE COMES WARMTH...AND WILL BE TOWING THELINE WITH THE 0 C ISOTHERM ACROSS A VERY DEEP LAYER. THE GFS AND NAMMODEL DIFFERENCES ARE VERY PRONOUNCED...AS 925-850 MB WET BULB TEMPSOF THE GFS ARE A GOOD 5 DEGREES C WARMER THAN THE NAM OVER WAYNECOUNTY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINS A BIT OFA WESTERN OUTLIER WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK COMPARED TO ITSENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND WITH THE GEM MORE IN LINE WITH THENAM...FORECAST WAS SKEWED ON THE COLDER SIDE...AS THE 12Z EURO HASCOME IN LINE WITH ITS 00Z RUN. THE HUGE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THEMODELS APPEARS TO TAKE PLACE AT 6Z WEDNESDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERNTENNESSEE BORDER...AS THE 12Z GFS LOOKS TOO DEEP AND WEST WITH THESURFACE LOW (983 MB)...LIKELY SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WHILETHE EURO IS MUCH FARTHER EAST AND WEAKER AT 990 MB. LATEST RAP13 ISIN LINE WITH THE EURO MAGNITUDE BUT IN THE MIDDLE FOR LOCATION.EXPECTATIONS ARE THE COLD DRY EAST-NORTHEAST FEED DOWN LOW SHOULDPROMOTE GOOD WET BULBING WITH LEAD SURGE OF MOISTURE/ACTIVITY TOSUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEINGTOWARD THE OHIO BORDER (MONROE/WAYNE/LENAWEE COUNTIES)...AS MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ALSO ATTEMPT TO IMPINGE ON THESE AREAS DURINGTHE AFTERNOON. IF PRECIPITATION DOES TAPER OFF AND SHUT DOWN...SOMEMODEST WARMING WILL OCCUR. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR 1TO 5 INCHES IN THOSE LOCATIONS TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. HIGHER END IFWE STAY MOSTLY SNOW AND DON`T MIX...LOWER END WITH MIXTURE.CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE GLACIALRIDGE BEING ALL SNOW...WITH LONGER DURATION OF FORCING.ALTHOUGH THE DEFORMATION AXIS LIFTING NORTH TOWARD SAGINAW BAYWEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THE QUESTION MARK IS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVEFARTHER NORTH BEFORE SETTLING BACK SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTOTHURSDAY...AS THIRD UPPER LEVEL PLAYER CURRENTLY APPROACHING THESOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON ACTS AS THE KICKER ANDALLOW FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING TO SET IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ENDINGTHE SNOW BY AROUND NOON. WITH MUCH OF THE WEIGHT PLACED ON THECONSISTENT EURO...TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES ALONGAND NORTH OF I-69 POINT TO STORM TOTALS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES. STRONGNORTHEAST WINDS COMING OFF SAGINAW BAY/LAKE HURON DURING WEDNESDAYWILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY NEAR THELAKESHORES...BUT WITH THE WET NATURE OF SNOW...LACK OF BLOWING SNOWINITIALLY...VISIBILITIES MAY STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW 1/4SM FOR ANYEXTENDED TIME...AND HELD OFF ON BLIZZARD WARNING. THIS IS SOMETHINGLATER SHIFTS CAN LOOK AT CLOSELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Fwiw I think LOT has a brewing public perception problem, event way under the radar in the city, especially considering potential rush hour timing. Local news outlets around here don't even want to touch this storm. WGN this morning was showing a model that had SE burbs of Chicago getting 11 inches and even had "Winter Storm Watch" in the graphic but didn't even speak really a word on the storm's potential. It's been downplayed for sure, probably because of all the uncertainty. I'll be coming down 55 south tomorrow after work and I know for sure my office hasn't given a single thought to this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Still have dewpoints in the upper teens here, all the models right now are saying that we should be in the mid to upper 20s for dewpoints. It is getting to the point where this might matter with respect to wet bulbing and evaporative cooling. I hope you have enough optimism to spare for the rest of us in the Detroit area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Fwiw I think LOT has a brewing public perception problem, event way under the radar in the city, especially considering potential rush hour timing. Agreed. I work at a Mariano's & multiple coworkers (and myself) were surprised to see no big rush of people. Happens every time before a well-advertised snow event, but not today. Then again, I don't envy their jobs at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 21z RAP holding steady with that track up to the SE corner of IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Not going to name names but I was actually accused of trolling by talking about the SREF. I guess there could be some argument for that if it was way out on its own with nothing else even close, but you can't really say that's the case. It almost feels like people take this stuff personally sometimes. It's a weather forum and most of us here like snow but at the end of the day it's just that, snow. Whatever will be will be, and as usual, we'll find out which models did better than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Keep it coming RAP. 21z RAP holding steady with that track up to the SE corner of IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 My call would be 12-18 inches in Chicago, 10-15 in portions of lower Michigan north of a Jackson to Flint line although close to that line storm goes rain to snow, so best accumulations in MI around GRR to APN, and also 10-15 in s.e. corner of WI trending to 8 inches MKE and 3 inches Sheboygan. The 12-18 swath tapers to 10-15 again south-southwest of ORD but extends to STL, trend is rapidly down to 5-10 near LAF to PAH and almost zero snow in most of IN, w OH except for tail end of storm which could give 1-3 inches. In Ontario, can see how it starts with some snow, changes to ZR then all rain, back to sleet and snow. Totals something like 5 cms for London to Hamilton, 8-12 cms Toronto, heavier amounts around s Ggn Bay into central ON (20-40 cms). lol this could be the Telemundo guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 It's a weather forum and most of us here like snow but at the end of the day it's just that, snow. Whatever will be will be, and as usual, we'll find out which models did better than others. +1 tru that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 My call would be 12-18 inches in Chicago, 10-15 in portions of lower Michigan north of a Jackson to Flint line although close to that line storm goes rain to snow, so best accumulations in MI around GRR to APN, and also 10-15 in s.e. corner of WI trending to 8 inches MKE and 3 inches Sheboygan. The 12-18 swath tapers to 10-15 again south-southwest of ORD but extends to STL, trend is rapidly down to 5-10 near LAF to PAH and almost zero snow in most of IN, w OH except for tail end of storm which could give 1-3 inches. In Ontario, can see how it starts with some snow, changes to ZR then all rain, back to sleet and snow. Totals something like 5 cms for London to Hamilton, 8-12 cms Toronto, heavier amounts around s Ggn Bay into central ON (20-40 cms). lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 21z RAP holding steady with that track up to the SE corner of IL. and +1 for ABC World News Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Keep it coming RAP. I'm really liking St. Louis to get 6" out of this. @ Hoosier. I was posting the SREF too. I didn't think you were trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I hope you have enough optimism to spare for the rest of us in the Detroit area. Not really optimism just using the context clues given. It probably won't matter in the long run but it is something to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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