Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 no What site are they out on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 What site are they out on? yeah, GYY (right across the border from the south side of chicago) was already right around 1" liquid on the 9z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This level of spread is unprecedented. I feel bad for the NWS mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Multiple tornadoes reported in New Orleans with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 It's 39° here right now. HRRR is showing about 43° for 1pm. 2° too high at ORD. Just saying like I see it. Surprised the sun has been out as long as it has today. Go back to the mid/late 20s pages for that earlier drama... he's just joking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 What site are they out on? weather.gov. Just the 24 hour precip maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 18z RAP coming in a touch west of 15z run valid 9z tomorrow and wetter to the west of the surface low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 18z RAP coming in a touch west of 15z run valid 9z tomorrow and wetter to the west of the surface low love how you can see the defo get pulled back west by the ULL towards the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 love how you can see the defo get pulled back west by the ULL towards the end of the run Yeah the ULL is moving nearly due north the last few hours of the run and getting stronger Looks like surface low would go right over EVV with the defo band looking great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Multiple tornadoes reported in New Orleans with this system. Yea, things are going to get crazy down there. PDS watch likely going up within the next hour or two based on the new MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 After analyzing the 12z models, I'm inclined to skip this event. The relative lack of cold air looks to hamper snowfall totals from what they otherwise could be and is disuading me from chasing this one. That aside, any one here holding out hope for a bigger event than currently progged and/or see something I might be missing? Blizzard conditions anywhere? If I were to still go...I'd have to leave asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 15z SREF did widen the snowfall axis and also increased snowfall amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 15z SREF did widen the snowfall axis and also increased snowfall amounts yeah, mean QPF up to .90" at ORD...still tons of variability though, especially for this close to the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Go back to the mid/late 20s pages for that earlier drama... he's just joking I couldn't tell since he's not in the room talking about the storm. There was so many new pages this morning, I was just skimming. Yeah SREF's are west again. 6.3" here, 8.3" ORD, 10.0" Hoosier, 5.9" RC & Gilbertfly, 6.6" Blackrock, 6.5" Jonger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Who wins between Detroit and Milwaukee? Over or under 2.5" Detroit owns Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Who wins between Detroit and Milwaukee? Over or under 2.5" 3.5 DTX 2.0 MKX EDIT: just looked at the SREF for DTX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 yeah, mean QPF up to .90" at ORD...still tons of variability though, especially for this close to the event 0-17.5 and stuff everywhere inbetween. nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Rap @ hr 18 has a 986 in W KY along the KY/IL/IN border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I couldn't tell since he's not in the room talking about the storm. There was so many new pages this morning, I was just skimming. Yeah SREF's are west again. 6.3" here, 8.3" ORD, 10.0" Hoosier, 5.9" RC & Gilbertfly, 6.6" Blackrock, 6.5" Jonger. This is such a shift from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Good news for the St. Louis metro.^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 wouldn't want to be working at LOT, Cook alone could have a double digit gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I couldn't tell since he's not in the room talking about the storm. There was so many new pages this morning, I was just skimming. Yeah SREF's are west again. 6.3" here, 8.3" ORD, 10.0" Hoosier, 5.9" RC & Gilbertfly, 6.6" Blackrock, 6.5" Jonger. Very good consistency in the placement of that axis on the SREF recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 wouldn't want to be working at LOT, Cook alone could have a double digit gradient was 2-9" spread yesterday... increasing as time goes on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 looks like the NAM is going to capitulate to the GEFS, stronger/north with ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I like your call..alek. I always hate hoping for a tick south east like dtx needs a little but they have crapped horseshoes in February for a long time it seems so maybe they got one more run in them. Back to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Looking forward to a visit from LOT Ricky sometime today. Winds are about at the point where they are starting to turn NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Just as an FYI, the RAP and HRRR performed terribly with the 2/16 OV storm. Their usual NW biases and lower level thermal profiles were very evident. LR Rap bullseyed CMH with 8-10" of snow, we ended up with 2-3". End of range HRRR bullseyed SE Ohio with 10", they received 1". This is a different storm based on SLP strength, but very very similar with respect to thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 looks like the NAM is going to capitulate to the GEFS, stronger/north with ULL still not done either. 0z will continue trend is my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 That's a huge spread on the SREF plumes for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 still not done either. 0z will continue trend is my guess probably and the 4km will likely be west of the 12km again EDIT: it's going to be a massive improvement over the near shutout on 12z evening rush over the city is going to be ripping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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