STL Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Love the wagon's west graphic. You guys are going a mile a minute this morning. GEFS members for the 12z Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 EURO low is near EVV on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Euro snowfall is great for the Thumb, about the same as the 0Z elsewhere plus or minus an inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Euro is being stubborn with less westward extent of heavier precip. I guess if there's a time it's most likely to be wrong it will be when the model consensus is against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Beautiful I'm right there with you. GEFS is beautiful for STL. It's going to be a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I have no clue where Hillsdale actually is Its roughly 75 miles WSW of Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M4XiMuS Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 warm All aboard the defo train for the LSX metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 /\ That's just fugly mudfest coming down the pipe over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 All aboard the defo train for the LSX metro. Hopefully the wealth can be spread across the STL metro. I feel more confident where I'm located about 5 miles North of Arnold, however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M4XiMuS Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Hopefully the wealth can be spread across the STL metro. I feel more confident where I'm located about 5 miles North of Arnold, however Agreed - I'm on NW fringe of the cutoff - need more wagons headed this way before I start getting the kiddos excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Gradient tighter than a gnats ass. Should be a fun event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 warm And west. Tricky call for MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 And west. Tricky call for MO. Cold air for 500 Alec... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 warm It is blowing current temperatures some places by as much at 5 degrees too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Should point out the difference between composite reflectivity and actual precip reaching the ground. Taking the HRRR example, pretty big difference between the composite reflectivity and where the leading edge of the precip shield is at 8z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Looks like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 HRRR is about 4° too warm with temps right now here. 12z Tracks The wind will be a big story. RPM snowfall map fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 HRRR is about 4° too warm with temps right now here. everything is always about 4° too warm with temps right now in your backyard That RPM maps looks pretty reasonable IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Mesoanalysis from SPC seems to indicate both the GFS and NAM have a reasonable handle on the placement of the sfc low over E TX. GFS is a touch too deep though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 One noticeable thing on the 12z runs is a shift away from the super rapid (convectively influenced) deepening of the surface low tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 everything is always about 4° too warm with temps right now in your backyard That RPM maps looks pretty reasonable IMO It's 39° here right now. HRRR is showing about 43° for 1pm. 2° too high at ORD. Just saying like I see it. Surprised the sun has been out as long as it has today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 It's 39° here right now. HRRR is showing about 43° for 1pm. 2° too high at ORD. Just saying like I see it. Surprised the sun has been out as long as it has today. i'm just pulling your leg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 One noticeable thing on the 12z runs is a shift away from the super rapid (convectively influenced) deepening of the surface low tonight. should help slow down the occlusion process some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 SREFs push further west. Brings 1 inch QPF line into the South Side of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 should help slow down the occlusion process some True...although I'm skeptical of the storm deepening into the 980s like the models suggest, as there's not much of a temp gradient to fuel strengthening. There's just no cold air. I know there's good upper level support, though. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 SREFs push further west. Brings 1 inch QPF line into the South Side of Chicago. old? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 True...although I'm skeptical of the storm deepening into the 980s like the models suggest, as there's not much of a temp gradient to fuel strengthening. There's just no cold air. I know there's good upper level support, though. We'll see what happens. i don't think we need a super deep SLP if the ULL takes a favorable track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 old? no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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