RyanDe680 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I would think ratios would be 6:1 to 8:1 for this. Temps at 33/34 with dp's at 29 will drop the temp to around there, making for some good sludge on the western end of the snowband. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Time to stop looking so much at the globals but the 12z UKIE may have ticked east a bit. Not like the NAM, but it's no longer taking the sfc low over/near Detroit. More like CLE/Sandusky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 GGEM Snowfall map...cut these amounts down by about 5" especially in central Michigan and it's more realistic. Ratios should be around 9:1 or 10:1 further west. GFS looks like the warm layer is confined to 950mb to the surface for Chicago and NW Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The GEM is very very snowy for Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 NAM BUFKIT has 0.30" of QPF tomorrow at YYZ as snow. Then an additional 0.20" falls as ZR/RA but the thermal profiles are fractional degrees from having that as snow as well. Then a big slug of warm air pushes in at 800mb and ends any prospect of snow until the wrap around moves in. 4km NAM is less. About 0.20" as snow, then 0.10" additional marginal precip before RA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 The GEM is very very snowy for Michigan We get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 First call here is 7-9" with a period of blizzard conditions possible. Do think it's not of the question for a higher total but marginal thermal profiles and being near the edge of the better precip gradient give me some pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 First call here is 7-9" with a period of blizzard conditions possible. Do think it's not of the question for a higher total but marginal thermal profiles and being near the edge of the better precip gradient give me some pause. 7-9" seems reasonable for you, though like you said, marginal thermals is concerning. Also, the ground isn't exactly cold. I know this will be overwhelmed quickly by heavy rates, but still something to consider. I would say 5-8" is more reasonable for your location. I would say 2-5" across Chicago metro is a good call, and is probably what I'll go with pending the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Calling for 2-4" here only because I'm on my knees praying for a reach around as it passes NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Time to stop looking so much at the globals but the 12z UKIE may have ticked east a bit. Not like the NAM, but it's no longer taking the sfc low over/near Detroit. More like CLE/Sandusky.UKIE did tick east a bit but is now in very good agreement on sfc low track with the 12z GFS, from far western KY to southeast IN to western OH and then over CLE. Still gets 20-25 mm to Chicago and 30-40 mm into northwest IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 NAM BUFKIT has 0.30" of QPF tomorrow at YYZ as snow. Then an additional 0.20" falls as ZR/RA but the thermal profiles are fractional degrees from having that as snow as well. Then a big slug of warm air pushes in at 800mb and ends any prospect of snow until the wrap around moves in. 4km NAM is less. About 0.20" as snow, then 0.10" additional marginal precip before RA. Freezing rain threat is becoming a bit more substantial for the western GTA and up on the escarpment. Something to watch particularly with the wind. ZR could affect Detroit as well on the front end, although the changeover to rain should be fairly quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 7-9" seems reasonable for you, though like you said, marginal thermals is concerning. Also, the ground isn't exactly cold. I know this will be overwhelmed quickly by heavy rates, but still something to consider. I would say 5-8" is more reasonable for your location. I would say 2-5" across Chicago metro is a good call, and is probably what I'll go with pending the Euro. A bunch of us at LOT made picks for snowfall at the office a few days ago and I went with 6.6" so I have to stick with that. Which means gotta go 10-13" in NW IN lol. 7-9"/5-8" are very reasonable calls though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Freezing rain threat is becoming a bit more substantial for the western GTA and up on the escarpment. Something to watch particularly with the wind. ZR could affect Detroit as well on the front end, although the changeover to rain should be fairly quick. Still a little skeptical without true arctic high pressure feeding cold air into this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Still a little skeptical about all this without true arctic high pressure feeding cold air into this setup. Hmm good point. I supposed the cold air source on the models is the low itself being deep enough to pull enough cold air in directly from the NE. 4km NAM showing the heaviest ZR threat. Nice defo for the Chicago crew. Hoosier might get under those maxed out snow returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Rippage. Might be able to tap into this or at least come close. The March 9, 1998 storm caused a lot of power outages in this area. Some of the more rural areas of Lake/Porter were without power for almost 2 weeks iirc. Having lived in this particular location for only a matter of months, not sure how well the power holds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Speaking of it, 3/9/98 has made an appearance on CIPS http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=MV&fhr=F036&rundt=2016022312 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I sense optimism. giddyup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 giddyup Both the NMM and ARW are spitting out around 1.5" liquid near southern Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Both the NMM and ARW are spitting out around 1.5" liquid near southern Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 WPCs preference right now PREFERENCE: NON-CMC WEIGHTED TOWARD 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 A good 80-90% of the storm looks to hang around freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 WPCs preference right now PREFERENCE: NON-CMC WEIGHTED TOWARD 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF Mentioned below average confidence though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I sense optimism. Love the wagon's west graphic. You guys are going a mile a minute this morning. GEFS members for the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Taking a peek at the EURO looks like Low placement @24 is just east of Owensboro KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I think we'll see Cook and Will get a WWA GEFS mean now up to ~.75 in the loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Speaking of it, 3/9/98 has made an appearance on CIPS http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=MV&fhr=F036&rundt=2016022312 That 3/29/09 storm was a good one here. About 8". 5.1" here on the SREF. Nice little cluster around 9". One big monster at 18". UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Euro looks a bit west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Euro looks a bit west. Takes same track as last night, it hasn't budged one bit on the track. Maybe the snow shield nudged a bit closer to Chicago which would make sense since it is finally figuring out the better cold side precip but the track is more important for the heaviest snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 HRR West also, riding the SLP right up the Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Current look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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