Toronto4 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Freezing drizzle affecting parts of the Toronto area ATM. I wonder if the low level cold air feed from the east (Ottawa valley) is strong enough to keep the GTA all snow for a longer period before the eventual changeover to rain (sometime between noon and 3 pm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Euro definitely appears to be heading for a weak sauce performance seriously impressive win for the Euro/GGEM with bonus points to the SREF lessons learned: the Euro is still the king of weather models and when half the SREF members are showing DAB, ignore the mean. next I don't think I'd give any credit to the GGEM. It's still a pretty ****ty model. You all know my feelings about the HRRR and RAP, especially outside 6 hours...but I had the thought last night, when seeing them posted...when was the last time that combo (or either one) beat the Euro in a forecasting contest? Probably never. Anyways, my 6-10" IMBY call looks a bit bullish at the moment. Fell for the NAM twins...which is my mistake. So, maybe 4-8" is better...but we'll see. Winds are pretty gusty here this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Just woke up and thought I was reliving GHD. Sitting right under that death band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Looks like my old stomping grounds in SE Michigan will be wrestling with the Raina/snow line, and the dry slot by the afternoon. A true snow lovers nightmare. Any obeservations out there from washtenaw county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I suppose this is what happens when you choose sleep over storms. Im shocked at how this low has deepened dramatically in the last 2-3hrs. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 About an hour of freezing rain and now it has switched over to all snow... If this can stay snow the whole event, that 1 foot mark looks attainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 About an hour of freezing rain and now it has switched over to all snow... If this can stay snow the whole event, that 1 foot mark looks attainable.i would think that areas across Indiana, once changing over to snow would stay snow. According to some of the METARS across the area the winds are already picking up to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky333 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I've had freezing rain for an hour and a half and school is now delayed 2hrs for the kids. Very interesting start. Scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Good luck everybody, enjoy the storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 11z RAP keeps us all snow after this projected brief period of sleet and possibly freezing rain. We'll see. It's very marginal at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I'm liking my location on this one. 10 inches is my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjk254 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Todd Holsten going with 12.1 in the hourly for Nappanee. 8-12 St. Joseph County and east in Elkhart County for IWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 About an hour of freezing rain and now it has switched over to all snow... If this can stay snow the whole event, that 1 foot mark looks attainable. Good luck up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btcs31 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Winds picking up already. Looks like the snow is less than an hour away from here. My wife is a teacher and her phones been blowing up with all the school closing this morning. Hyped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 APX bumped the WSW to the west in Michigan this morning. Adding about 4 more counties to the WSW. They are calling for 6-10" with locally higher amounts. In their AFD, they even mentioned the "blizzard" condition possibility near Lake Huron. I didn't initially want a storm at all, but I guess if we get one, might as well go big or go home. Snowblower is gassed up and I'm ready for work to be called off for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 The 10z RAP keeps Toronto all snow until about 3pm this afternoon with just over 1" of QPF at that point. RAP showing 12" for Toronto, every single other model showing 1-2" Poor RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I'm liking my location on this one. 10 inches is my call. 29-30 MBY currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 30/29 with -SN beginning. Very dark skies ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Freezing drizzle affecting parts of the Toronto area ATM. I wonder if the low level cold air feed from the east (Ottawa valley) is strong enough to keep the GTA all snow for a longer period before the eventual changeover to rain (sometime between noon and 3 pm).3pm on the RAP seems bullish at this point but it is interesting that the models have pushes the changeover timing back a bit since last evening. The HRRR has a changeover to all RN around 1pm. The 4kNAM has it ~11am. The later arrival is a result of stronger CAD than expected earlier. Winds take longer to veer towards the east. Once this happens, we change over right away.Probably going to be some PL accompanied with the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 First flakes began here about 10 minutes ago. Gonna be razor thin for IKK to get warning criteria amounts, but we'll hope for the best. LAF currently reporting 32 and -RA. Regardless, should be rip city there later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 First flakes began here about 10 minutes ago. Gonna be razor thin for IKK to get warning criteria amounts, but we'll hope for the best. LAF currently reporting 32 and -RA. Regardless, should be rip city there later. cousin in Rochester changed to snow 20 min ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 cousin in Rochester changed to snow 20 min ago. East Central IL to the IWX CWA look pretty good I think. Probably the best spots for dd's. Parts of MI too. Should be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I'm liking my location on this one. 10 inches is my call. looking forward to seeing some obs out of the Livingston county area. Been keeping track of the METAR at KOZW waiting for the first report of -sn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Sleet north side of LAF now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Kind of surprised to see lowest pressure falls that far east. However, as we all know, it's simply one technique for low track. The low has been barreling NE, which is more east than I would have thought. Hoping this can keep harrisale in play... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Parachutes falling now. Here we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Snow accumulating easily. Everything coated, including the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 The 10z RAP keeps Toronto all snow until about 3pm this afternoon with just over 1" of QPF at that point. RAP showing 12" for Toronto, every single other model showing 1-2" Poor RAP. Yeah, that's not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 Snow accumulating easily. Everything coated, including the roads. Gl. I'm pulling for you guys to stay snow at least into the afternoon. Lotsa of + returns just to your south about to move in so should help the dynamic cooling process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky333 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Some snow flakes here as big a saucers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.