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Potential major winter storm - Feb 24-25 PART II


snowstormcanuck

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Euro definitely appears to be heading for a weak sauce performance

 

 

seriously impressive win for the Euro/GGEM with bonus points to the SREF

 

lessons learned: the Euro is still the king of weather models and when half the SREF members are showing DAB, ignore the mean.

 

next

 

:ee:

 

I don't think I'd give any credit to the GGEM. It's still a pretty ****ty model.

 

You all know my feelings about the HRRR and RAP, especially outside 6 hours...but I had the thought last night, when seeing them posted...when was the last time that combo (or either one) beat the Euro in a forecasting contest? Probably never. :lol: 

 

Anyways, my 6-10" IMBY call looks a bit bullish at the moment. Fell for the NAM twins...which is my mistake. So, maybe 4-8" is better...but we'll see. Winds are pretty gusty here this morning...

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About an hour of freezing rain and now it has switched over to all snow... If this can stay snow the whole event, that 1 foot mark looks attainable.

i would think that areas across Indiana, once changing over to snow would stay snow. According to some of the METARS across the area the winds are already picking up to
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APX bumped the WSW to the west in Michigan this morning. Adding about 4 more counties to the WSW. They are calling for 6-10" with locally higher amounts. In their AFD, they even mentioned the "blizzard" condition possibility near Lake Huron. I didn't initially want a storm at all, but I guess if we get one, might as well go big or go home. Snowblower is gassed up and I'm ready for work to be called off for tomorrow :) 

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Freezing drizzle affecting parts of the Toronto area ATM. I wonder if the low level cold air feed from the east (Ottawa valley) is strong enough to keep the GTA all snow for a longer period before the eventual changeover to rain (sometime between noon and 3 pm).

3pm on the RAP seems bullish at this point but it is interesting that the models have pushes the changeover timing back a bit since last evening. The HRRR has a changeover to all RN around 1pm. The 4kNAM has it ~11am. The later arrival is a result of stronger CAD than expected earlier. Winds take longer to veer towards the east. Once this happens, we change over right away.

Probably going to be some PL accompanied with the changeover.

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